Table 3 Open in new tab Changes to...

From model 1 (original SCORE) to model 2 (recalibrated SCORE)
Died from CVD (n = 91)
	<5%	27	11	12%		11%
	>5%	1	52		1%
Did not die from CVD (n = 4541)
	<5%	3572	204	4%		−2.3%
>5%	98	667		2%
Categorical net reclassification improvement (95% CI)			0.09	(0.02 to 0.16)	P = 0.02
Continuous net reclassification improvement (95% CI)			−0.09	(−0.28 to 0.10)	P = 0.34

From model 1 (original SCORE) to model 2 (recalibrated SCORE)

Status after follow-up

Predicted 10-year risk (original SCORE)

Predicted 10-year risk (recalibrated SCORE)

Reclassified

Net correctly reclassified

<5%

>5%

Increased risk

Decreased risk

Died from CVD (n = 91)

<5%

12%

11%

>5%

Did not die from CVD (n = 4541)

<5%

3572

204

−2.3%

>5%

667

Categorical net reclassification improvement (95% CI)

0.09

(0.02 to 0.16)

P = 0.02

Continuous net reclassification improvement (95% CI)

−0.09

(−0.28 to 0.10)

P = 0.34

From model 1 (original SCORE) to model 2 (recalibrated SCORE)
Died from CVD (n = 91)
	<5%	27	11	12%		11%
	>5%	1	52		1%
Did not die from CVD (n = 4541)
	<5%	3572	204	4%		−2.3%
>5%	98	667		2%
Categorical net reclassification improvement (95% CI)			0.09	(0.02 to 0.16)	P = 0.02
Continuous net reclassification improvement (95% CI)			−0.09	(−0.28 to 0.10)	P = 0.34

From model 2 (recalibrated SCORE) to model 3 (HAPIEE SCORE)
Died from CVD (n = 91)
	<5%	15	13	14%		12%
	>5%	2	61		2%
Did not die from CVD (n = 4541)
	<5%	3309	361	8%		−6.4%
>5%	70	801		2%
Categorical net reclassification improvement (95% CI)			0.06	(−0.02 to 0.14)	P = 0.16
Continuous net reclassification improvement (95% CI)			0.53	(0.37 to 0.68)	P < 0.0001

From model 2 (recalibrated SCORE) to model 3 (HAPIEE SCORE)

Status after follow-up

Predicted 10-year risk (recalibrated SCORE)

Predicted 10-year risk (HAPIEE SCORE)

Reclassified

Net correctly reclassified

<5%

>5%

Increased risk

Decreased risk

Died from CVD (n = 91)

<5%

14%

12%

>5%

Did not die from CVD (n = 4541)

<5%

3309

361

−6.4%

>5%

801

Categorical net reclassification improvement (95% CI)

0.06

(−0.02 to 0.14)

P = 0.16

Continuous net reclassification improvement (95% CI)

0.53

(0.37 to 0.68)

P < 0.0001

From model 2 (recalibrated SCORE) to model 3 (HAPIEE SCORE)
Died from CVD (n = 91)
	<5%	15	13	14%		12%
	>5%	2	61		2%
Did not die from CVD (n = 4541)
	<5%	3309	361	8%		−6.4%
>5%	70	801		2%
Categorical net reclassification improvement (95% CI)			0.06	(−0.02 to 0.14)	P = 0.16
Continuous net reclassification improvement (95% CI)			0.53	(0.37 to 0.68)	P < 0.0001

From model 1 (original SCORE) to model 3 (HAPIEE SCORE)
Died from CVD (n = 91)
	<5%	14	24	26%		23%
	>5%	3	50		3%
Did not die from CVD (n = 4541)
	<5%	3296	480	11%		−8.7%
>5%	83	682		2%
Categorical net reclassification improvement (95% CI)			0.14	(0.04 to 0.25)	P = 0.006
Continuous net reclassification improvement (95% CI)			0.13	(−0.03 to 0.28)	P = 0.12

From model 1 (original SCORE) to model 3 (HAPIEE SCORE)

Status after follow-up

Predicted 10-year risk (original SCORE)

Predicted 10-year risk (HAPIEE SCORE)

Reclassified

Net correctly reclassified

<5%

>5%

Increased risk

Decreased risk

Died from CVD (n = 91)

<5%

26%

23%

>5%

Did not die from CVD (n = 4541)

<5%

3296

480

11%

−8.7%

>5%

682

Categorical net reclassification improvement (95% CI)

0.14

(0.04 to 0.25)

P = 0.006

Continuous net reclassification improvement (95% CI)

0.13

(−0.03 to 0.28)

P = 0.12

From model 1 (original SCORE) to model 3 (HAPIEE SCORE)
Died from CVD (n = 91)
	<5%	14	24	26%		23%
	>5%	3	50		3%
Did not die from CVD (n = 4541)
	<5%	3296	480	11%		−8.7%
>5%	83	682		2%
Categorical net reclassification improvement (95% CI)			0.14	(0.04 to 0.25)	P = 0.006
Continuous net reclassification improvement (95% CI)			0.13	(−0.03 to 0.28)	P = 0.12

Table 3

Open in new tab

Changes to reclassification across three cardiovascular prediction models, in the validation cohort

From model 1 (original SCORE) to model 2 (recalibrated SCORE)
Status after follow-up	Predicted 10-year risk (original SCORE)	Predicted 10-year risk (recalibrated SCORE)		Reclassified		Net correctly reclassified
Status after follow-up	Predicted 10-year risk (original SCORE)	<5%	>5%	Increased risk	Decreased risk	Net correctly reclassified
Died from CVD (n = 91)
	<5%	27	11	12%		11%
	>5%	1	52		1%	11%
Did not die from CVD (n = 4541)
	<5%	3572	204	4%		−2.3%
	>5%	98	667		2%	−2.3%
Categorical net reclassification improvement (95% CI)						0.09	(0.02 to 0.16)	P = 0.02
Continuous net reclassification improvement (95% CI)						−0.09	(−0.28 to 0.10)	P = 0.34

From model 1 (original SCORE) to model 2 (recalibrated SCORE)
Status after follow-up	Predicted 10-year risk (original SCORE)	Predicted 10-year risk (recalibrated SCORE)		Reclassified		Net correctly reclassified
Status after follow-up	Predicted 10-year risk (original SCORE)	<5%	>5%	Increased risk	Decreased risk	Net correctly reclassified
Died from CVD (n = 91)
	<5%	27	11	12%		11%
	>5%	1	52		1%	11%
Did not die from CVD (n = 4541)
	<5%	3572	204	4%		−2.3%
	>5%	98	667		2%	−2.3%
Categorical net reclassification improvement (95% CI)						0.09	(0.02 to 0.16)	P = 0.02
Continuous net reclassification improvement (95% CI)						−0.09	(−0.28 to 0.10)	P = 0.34

From model 2 (recalibrated SCORE) to model 3 (HAPIEE SCORE)
Status after follow-up	Predicted 10-year risk (recalibrated SCORE)	Predicted 10-year risk (HAPIEE SCORE)		Reclassified		Net correctly reclassified
Status after follow-up	Predicted 10-year risk (recalibrated SCORE)	<5%	>5%	Increased risk	Decreased risk	Net correctly reclassified
Died from CVD (n = 91)
	<5%	15	13	14%		12%
	>5%	2	61		2%	12%
Did not die from CVD (n = 4541)
	<5%	3309	361	8%		−6.4%
	>5%	70	801		2%	−6.4%
Categorical net reclassification improvement (95% CI)						0.06	(−0.02 to 0.14)	P = 0.16
Continuous net reclassification improvement (95% CI)						0.53	(0.37 to 0.68)	P < 0.0001

From model 2 (recalibrated SCORE) to model 3 (HAPIEE SCORE)
Status after follow-up	Predicted 10-year risk (recalibrated SCORE)	Predicted 10-year risk (HAPIEE SCORE)		Reclassified		Net correctly reclassified
Status after follow-up	Predicted 10-year risk (recalibrated SCORE)	<5%	>5%	Increased risk	Decreased risk	Net correctly reclassified
Died from CVD (n = 91)
	<5%	15	13	14%		12%
	>5%	2	61		2%	12%
Did not die from CVD (n = 4541)
	<5%	3309	361	8%		−6.4%
	>5%	70	801		2%	−6.4%
Categorical net reclassification improvement (95% CI)						0.06	(−0.02 to 0.14)	P = 0.16
Continuous net reclassification improvement (95% CI)						0.53	(0.37 to 0.68)	P < 0.0001

From model 1 (original SCORE) to model 3 (HAPIEE SCORE)
Status after follow-up	Predicted 10-year risk (original SCORE)	Predicted 10-year risk (HAPIEE SCORE)		Reclassified		Net correctly reclassified
Status after follow-up	Predicted 10-year risk (original SCORE)	<5%	>5%	Increased risk	Decreased risk	Net correctly reclassified
Died from CVD (n = 91)
	<5%	14	24	26%		23%
	>5%	3	50		3%	23%
Did not die from CVD (n = 4541)
	<5%	3296	480	11%		−8.7%
	>5%	83	682		2%	−8.7%
Categorical net reclassification improvement (95% CI)						0.14	(0.04 to 0.25)	P = 0.006
Continuous net reclassification improvement (95% CI)						0.13	(−0.03 to 0.28)	P = 0.12

From model 1 (original SCORE) to model 3 (HAPIEE SCORE)
Status after follow-up	Predicted 10-year risk (original SCORE)	Predicted 10-year risk (HAPIEE SCORE)		Reclassified		Net correctly reclassified
Status after follow-up	Predicted 10-year risk (original SCORE)	<5%	>5%	Increased risk	Decreased risk	Net correctly reclassified
Died from CVD (n = 91)
	<5%	14	24	26%		23%
	>5%	3	50		3%	23%
Did not die from CVD (n = 4541)
	<5%	3296	480	11%		−8.7%
	>5%	83	682		2%	−8.7%
Categorical net reclassification improvement (95% CI)						0.14	(0.04 to 0.25)	P = 0.006
Continuous net reclassification improvement (95% CI)						0.13	(−0.03 to 0.28)	P = 0.12

CI, confidence interval; CVD, cardiovascular disease.

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