Table 2. Open in new tab Trade and...

Dependent variable: expansion dummy
\|$\Delta$\| trade	0.818***	0.285*	0.463*	0.607**	0.545**	0.650*	0.577**	-0.179
	[0.189]	[0.176]	[0.257]	[0.239]	[0.269]	[0.335]	[0.290]	[0.142]
\|$\Delta$\| trade \|$\times$\| post-1945	-1.294***	-0.287*	-0.580*	-0.896***	-0.776**	-1.636**
	[0.314]	[0.177]	[0.300]	[0.314]	[0.318]	[0.819]
Post-1945		-2.724***	-5.262***	-5.626***	-4.850***	-2.859
		[0.472]	[1.242]	[1.566]	[1.353]	[2.405]
Log population				0.595***	0.599***	-2.053	0.640***	0.460*
				[0.141]	[0.141]	[1.702]	[0.161]	[0.271]
Urbanization rate				0.002	0.002*	0.003	0.003	0.001
				[0.001]	[0.001]	[0.004]	[0.002]	[0.002]
\|$\Delta$\| democracy					-0.166**	-0.159	-0.267**	0.113
					[0.076]	[0.132]	[0.111]	[0.103]
Country FE	No	No	No	No	No	Yes	No	No
Time FE	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Observations	822	822	822	799	651	227	212	439
\|$R^{2}$\|	0.0899	0.218	0.260	0.362	0.326	0.386	0.214	0.102

Dependent variable: expansion dummy

All

Pre-1945

Post-1945

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

|$\Delta$| trade

0.818***

0.285*

0.463*

0.607**

0.545**

0.650*

0.577**

-0.179

[0.189]

[0.176]

[0.257]

[0.239]

[0.269]

[0.335]

[0.290]

[0.142]

|$\Delta$| trade |$\times$| post-1945

-1.294***

-0.287*

-0.580*

-0.896***

-0.776**

-1.636**

[0.314]

[0.177]

[0.300]

[0.314]

[0.318]

[0.819]

Post-1945

-2.724***

-5.262***

-5.626***

-4.850***

-2.859

[0.472]

[1.242]

[1.566]

[1.353]

[2.405]

Log population

0.595***

0.599***

-2.053

0.640***

0.460*

[0.141]

[1.702]

[0.161]

[0.271]

Urbanization rate

0.002

0.002*

0.003

0.001

[0.001]

[0.004]

[0.002]

|$\Delta$| democracy

-0.166**

-0.159

-0.267**

0.113

[0.076]

[0.132]

[0.111]

[0.103]

Country FE

Yes

Time FE

Yes

Observations

822

799

651

227

212

439

|$R^{2}$|

0.0899

0.218

0.260

0.362

0.326

0.386

0.214

0.102

Dependent variable: expansion dummy
\|$\Delta$\| trade	0.818***	0.285*	0.463*	0.607**	0.545**	0.650*	0.577**	-0.179
	[0.189]	[0.176]	[0.257]	[0.239]	[0.269]	[0.335]	[0.290]	[0.142]
\|$\Delta$\| trade \|$\times$\| post-1945	-1.294***	-0.287*	-0.580*	-0.896***	-0.776**	-1.636**
	[0.314]	[0.177]	[0.300]	[0.314]	[0.318]	[0.819]
Post-1945		-2.724***	-5.262***	-5.626***	-4.850***	-2.859
		[0.472]	[1.242]	[1.566]	[1.353]	[2.405]
Log population				0.595***	0.599***	-2.053	0.640***	0.460*
				[0.141]	[0.141]	[1.702]	[0.161]	[0.271]
Urbanization rate				0.002	0.002*	0.003	0.003	0.001
				[0.001]	[0.001]	[0.004]	[0.002]	[0.002]
\|$\Delta$\| democracy					-0.166**	-0.159	-0.267**	0.113
					[0.076]	[0.132]	[0.111]	[0.103]
Country FE	No	No	No	No	No	Yes	No	No
Time FE	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Observations	822	822	822	799	651	227	212	439
\|$R^{2}$\|	0.0899	0.218	0.260	0.362	0.326	0.386	0.214	0.102

Table 2.

Open in new tab

Trade and territorial expansion.

Dependent variable: expansion dummy
	All	All	All	All	All	All	Pre-1945	Post-1945
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)
\|$\Delta$\| trade	0.818***	0.285*	0.463*	0.607**	0.545**	0.650*	0.577**	-0.179
	[0.189]	[0.176]	[0.257]	[0.239]	[0.269]	[0.335]	[0.290]	[0.142]
\|$\Delta$\| trade \|$\times$\| post-1945	-1.294***	-0.287*	-0.580*	-0.896***	-0.776**	-1.636**
	[0.314]	[0.177]	[0.300]	[0.314]	[0.318]	[0.819]
Post-1945		-2.724***	-5.262***	-5.626***	-4.850***	-2.859
		[0.472]	[1.242]	[1.566]	[1.353]	[2.405]
Log population				0.595***	0.599***	-2.053	0.640***	0.460*
				[0.141]	[0.141]	[1.702]	[0.161]	[0.271]
Urbanization rate				0.002	0.002*	0.003	0.003	0.001
				[0.001]	[0.001]	[0.004]	[0.002]	[0.002]
\|$\Delta$\| democracy					-0.166**	-0.159	-0.267**	0.113
					[0.076]	[0.132]	[0.111]	[0.103]
Country FE	No	No	No	No	No	Yes	No	No
Time FE	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Observations	822	822	822	799	651	227	212	439
\|$R^{2}$\|	0.0899	0.218	0.260	0.362	0.326	0.386	0.214	0.102

Dependent variable: expansion dummy
	All	All	All	All	All	All	Pre-1945	Post-1945
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)
\|$\Delta$\| trade	0.818***	0.285*	0.463*	0.607**	0.545**	0.650*	0.577**	-0.179
	[0.189]	[0.176]	[0.257]	[0.239]	[0.269]	[0.335]	[0.290]	[0.142]
\|$\Delta$\| trade \|$\times$\| post-1945	-1.294***	-0.287*	-0.580*	-0.896***	-0.776**	-1.636**
	[0.314]	[0.177]	[0.300]	[0.314]	[0.318]	[0.819]
Post-1945		-2.724***	-5.262***	-5.626***	-4.850***	-2.859
		[0.472]	[1.242]	[1.566]	[1.353]	[2.405]
Log population				0.595***	0.599***	-2.053	0.640***	0.460*
				[0.141]	[0.141]	[1.702]	[0.161]	[0.271]
Urbanization rate				0.002	0.002*	0.003	0.003	0.001
				[0.001]	[0.001]	[0.004]	[0.002]	[0.002]
\|$\Delta$\| democracy					-0.166**	-0.159	-0.267**	0.113
					[0.076]	[0.132]	[0.111]	[0.103]
Country FE	No	No	No	No	No	Yes	No	No
Time FE	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Observations	822	822	822	799	651	227	212	439
\|$R^{2}$\|	0.0899	0.218	0.260	0.362	0.326	0.386	0.214	0.102

Notes: All observations refer to 10-year periods. The dependent variable is a dummy taking value 1 if the country’s land area expanded over the decade and 0 otherwise. |$\Delta$| trade and |$\Delta$| democracy are changes over the previous decade. Post-1945 is a dummy for decades after 1945. All other variables are measured at the beginning of each decade. Constant always included and pseudo-|$R^{2}$| reported. Standard errors, clustered by country, are in brackets. *, **, and *** denote significance at 10%, 5%, and 1%, respectively.

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