Table A2.
Open in new tab

Ordered Probit Models on Game Outcome and Status

Points for home team(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)
Win probability (odds based)2.7850***2.7585***2.8138***2.7582***
(0.1592)(0.1598)(0.1612)(0.1668)
Win probability (elo based)2.2636***2.2488***2.2574***2.1845***
(0.1401)(0.1415)(0.1402)(0.1438)
Ahead in ATT0.00500.0331
(0.0436)(0.0434)
ATT-position difference−0.0007−0.0013
(0.0014)(0.0014)
Ahead in members−0.01350.0388
(0.0450)(0.0444)
Members–position difference−0.0008−0.0036*
(0.0020)(0.0019)
Visitors (scaled)0.02060.02280.01820.02050.02270.02120.01820.0130
(0.0201)(0.0200)(0.0205)(0.0204)(0.0204)(0.0203)(0.0209)(0.0207)
N38913891389138913891389138913891
Pseudo-R20.05220.04650.05230.04650.05230.04650.05230.0469
Points for home team(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)
Win probability (odds based)2.7850***2.7585***2.8138***2.7582***
(0.1592)(0.1598)(0.1612)(0.1668)
Win probability (elo based)2.2636***2.2488***2.2574***2.1845***
(0.1401)(0.1415)(0.1402)(0.1438)
Ahead in ATT0.00500.0331
(0.0436)(0.0434)
ATT-position difference−0.0007−0.0013
(0.0014)(0.0014)
Ahead in members−0.01350.0388
(0.0450)(0.0444)
Members–position difference−0.0008−0.0036*
(0.0020)(0.0019)
Visitors (scaled)0.02060.02280.01820.02050.02270.02120.01820.0130
(0.0201)(0.0200)(0.0205)(0.0204)(0.0204)(0.0203)(0.0209)(0.0207)
N38913891389138913891389138913891
Pseudo-R20.05220.04650.05230.04650.05230.04650.05230.0469

Notes: Ordered probit model estimates; the outcome variable is categorical and takes value 0 for a lost game, value 1 for a draw, and value 2 for a won game from the perspective of the home game. Win probability and status are also defined from the perspective of the home team. Note that the sample is slightly restricted by the availability of data for win probability (87 missing games). Robust standard errors in parentheses.

***

p < 0.01,

**

p < 0.05,

*

p < 0.1.

Table A2.
Open in new tab

Ordered Probit Models on Game Outcome and Status

Points for home team(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)
Win probability (odds based)2.7850***2.7585***2.8138***2.7582***
(0.1592)(0.1598)(0.1612)(0.1668)
Win probability (elo based)2.2636***2.2488***2.2574***2.1845***
(0.1401)(0.1415)(0.1402)(0.1438)
Ahead in ATT0.00500.0331
(0.0436)(0.0434)
ATT-position difference−0.0007−0.0013
(0.0014)(0.0014)
Ahead in members−0.01350.0388
(0.0450)(0.0444)
Members–position difference−0.0008−0.0036*
(0.0020)(0.0019)
Visitors (scaled)0.02060.02280.01820.02050.02270.02120.01820.0130
(0.0201)(0.0200)(0.0205)(0.0204)(0.0204)(0.0203)(0.0209)(0.0207)
N38913891389138913891389138913891
Pseudo-R20.05220.04650.05230.04650.05230.04650.05230.0469
Points for home team(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)
Win probability (odds based)2.7850***2.7585***2.8138***2.7582***
(0.1592)(0.1598)(0.1612)(0.1668)
Win probability (elo based)2.2636***2.2488***2.2574***2.1845***
(0.1401)(0.1415)(0.1402)(0.1438)
Ahead in ATT0.00500.0331
(0.0436)(0.0434)
ATT-position difference−0.0007−0.0013
(0.0014)(0.0014)
Ahead in members−0.01350.0388
(0.0450)(0.0444)
Members–position difference−0.0008−0.0036*
(0.0020)(0.0019)
Visitors (scaled)0.02060.02280.01820.02050.02270.02120.01820.0130
(0.0201)(0.0200)(0.0205)(0.0204)(0.0204)(0.0203)(0.0209)(0.0207)
N38913891389138913891389138913891
Pseudo-R20.05220.04650.05230.04650.05230.04650.05230.0469

Notes: Ordered probit model estimates; the outcome variable is categorical and takes value 0 for a lost game, value 1 for a draw, and value 2 for a won game from the perspective of the home game. Win probability and status are also defined from the perspective of the home team. Note that the sample is slightly restricted by the availability of data for win probability (87 missing games). Robust standard errors in parentheses.

***

p < 0.01,

**

p < 0.05,

*

p < 0.1.

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