Relationship between initial and post-probe dementia probabilities: empirical expectations of initial point (y) given post-probe point or interval (x).
| Panel A. PR group (x = post-probe point) . | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| x . | 0 . | 10 . | 20 . | 30 . | 40 . | 50 . | 60 . | 70 . | 80 . | 90 . | 100 . |
| E(y|x) [CI] | 16.4 [0, 69.6] | 11 [0, 41.8] | 24.6 [0, 61.9] | 35.8 [0, 78.1] | 52 [28.6, 75.5] | 52.2 [23.4, 81.0] | 73.3 [43.4, 100] | 57.4 [0,100] | 62.1 [6.6, 100] | – | – |
| N | 8 | 11 | 46 | 29 | 20 | 27 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
| Panel B. IM group (x = interval LB) | |||||||||||
| X | 0 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 40 | 50 | 60 | 70 | 80 | 90 | 100 |
| Group with interval width = 10 | |||||||||||
| E(y|x) [CI] | 7 [0, 15.3] | 15.8 [2.8, 28.9] | 29.7 [5.0, 54.5] | 43.3 [5.7, 81] | 46.4 [17.8, 75.1] | 59.4 [28.3, 90.6] | 70 | 72.5 [65.6, 79.4] | – | 90 | – |
| N | 10 | 6 | 19 | 63 | 14 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Group with interval width = 20 | |||||||||||
| E(y|x) [CI] | 20.8 [0, 56.2] | 15 [1.1, 28.9] | 40 [0,100] | 38.3 [0,100] | 52.5 [38.6, 66.4] | – | 60 | – | 62 [36.2, 87.8] | – | – |
| N | 120 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| Panel A. PR group (x = post-probe point) . | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| x . | 0 . | 10 . | 20 . | 30 . | 40 . | 50 . | 60 . | 70 . | 80 . | 90 . | 100 . |
| E(y|x) [CI] | 16.4 [0, 69.6] | 11 [0, 41.8] | 24.6 [0, 61.9] | 35.8 [0, 78.1] | 52 [28.6, 75.5] | 52.2 [23.4, 81.0] | 73.3 [43.4, 100] | 57.4 [0,100] | 62.1 [6.6, 100] | – | – |
| N | 8 | 11 | 46 | 29 | 20 | 27 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
| Panel B. IM group (x = interval LB) | |||||||||||
| X | 0 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 40 | 50 | 60 | 70 | 80 | 90 | 100 |
| Group with interval width = 10 | |||||||||||
| E(y|x) [CI] | 7 [0, 15.3] | 15.8 [2.8, 28.9] | 29.7 [5.0, 54.5] | 43.3 [5.7, 81] | 46.4 [17.8, 75.1] | 59.4 [28.3, 90.6] | 70 | 72.5 [65.6, 79.4] | – | 90 | – |
| N | 10 | 6 | 19 | 63 | 14 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Group with interval width = 20 | |||||||||||
| E(y|x) [CI] | 20.8 [0, 56.2] | 15 [1.1, 28.9] | 40 [0,100] | 38.3 [0,100] | 52.5 [38.6, 66.4] | – | 60 | – | 62 [36.2, 87.8] | – | – |
| N | 120 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
Notes: The confidence intervals are intersected with the [0,100] interval. N = number of observations.
Relationship between initial and post-probe dementia probabilities: empirical expectations of initial point (y) given post-probe point or interval (x).
| Panel A. PR group (x = post-probe point) . | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| x . | 0 . | 10 . | 20 . | 30 . | 40 . | 50 . | 60 . | 70 . | 80 . | 90 . | 100 . |
| E(y|x) [CI] | 16.4 [0, 69.6] | 11 [0, 41.8] | 24.6 [0, 61.9] | 35.8 [0, 78.1] | 52 [28.6, 75.5] | 52.2 [23.4, 81.0] | 73.3 [43.4, 100] | 57.4 [0,100] | 62.1 [6.6, 100] | – | – |
| N | 8 | 11 | 46 | 29 | 20 | 27 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
| Panel B. IM group (x = interval LB) | |||||||||||
| X | 0 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 40 | 50 | 60 | 70 | 80 | 90 | 100 |
| Group with interval width = 10 | |||||||||||
| E(y|x) [CI] | 7 [0, 15.3] | 15.8 [2.8, 28.9] | 29.7 [5.0, 54.5] | 43.3 [5.7, 81] | 46.4 [17.8, 75.1] | 59.4 [28.3, 90.6] | 70 | 72.5 [65.6, 79.4] | – | 90 | – |
| N | 10 | 6 | 19 | 63 | 14 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Group with interval width = 20 | |||||||||||
| E(y|x) [CI] | 20.8 [0, 56.2] | 15 [1.1, 28.9] | 40 [0,100] | 38.3 [0,100] | 52.5 [38.6, 66.4] | – | 60 | – | 62 [36.2, 87.8] | – | – |
| N | 120 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| Panel A. PR group (x = post-probe point) . | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| x . | 0 . | 10 . | 20 . | 30 . | 40 . | 50 . | 60 . | 70 . | 80 . | 90 . | 100 . |
| E(y|x) [CI] | 16.4 [0, 69.6] | 11 [0, 41.8] | 24.6 [0, 61.9] | 35.8 [0, 78.1] | 52 [28.6, 75.5] | 52.2 [23.4, 81.0] | 73.3 [43.4, 100] | 57.4 [0,100] | 62.1 [6.6, 100] | – | – |
| N | 8 | 11 | 46 | 29 | 20 | 27 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
| Panel B. IM group (x = interval LB) | |||||||||||
| X | 0 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 40 | 50 | 60 | 70 | 80 | 90 | 100 |
| Group with interval width = 10 | |||||||||||
| E(y|x) [CI] | 7 [0, 15.3] | 15.8 [2.8, 28.9] | 29.7 [5.0, 54.5] | 43.3 [5.7, 81] | 46.4 [17.8, 75.1] | 59.4 [28.3, 90.6] | 70 | 72.5 [65.6, 79.4] | – | 90 | – |
| N | 10 | 6 | 19 | 63 | 14 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Group with interval width = 20 | |||||||||||
| E(y|x) [CI] | 20.8 [0, 56.2] | 15 [1.1, 28.9] | 40 [0,100] | 38.3 [0,100] | 52.5 [38.6, 66.4] | – | 60 | – | 62 [36.2, 87.8] | – | – |
| N | 120 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
Notes: The confidence intervals are intersected with the [0,100] interval. N = number of observations.
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