Table 5 Open in new tab LIC DSF Ratings...

Variable	Average risk rating 2013 and 2019	Increase in risk rating (0/1 dummy)	Increase in risk rating (absolute)	Average risk rating 2013 and 2019	Increase in risk rating (0/1 dummy)	Increase in risk rating (absolute)
Time since MDRI	−0.079^**	0.057^**	0.084^*	−0.011	0.103^**	0.224^***
	(−0.032)	(0.025)	(0.048)	(−0.063)	(0.037)	(0.074)
Chinese flows 2000–12	0.280	0.445^***	1.135^***	0.102	0.347^**	0.848^***
	(0.199)	(0.142)	(0.346)	(0.220)	(0.161)	(0.251)
Fragile state				0.351	0.215	0.467
				(0.259)	(0.183)	(0.341)
Commodity exporter				0.330	−0.266^*	−0.364
				(0.223)	(−0.143)	(−0.279)
Fuel exporter				0.415	0.471	1.515^**
				(0.502)	(0.320)	(0.638)
East African community				−0.477	−0.690^***	−0.977^*
				(−0.438)	(−0.200)	(−0.497)
CFA country				−0.419^*	−0.307	−0.200
				(−0.230)	(−0.183)	(−0.296)
Constant	2.882^***	−0.384	−0.898^*	2.031^***	−0.661	−2.310^**
	(0.330)	(−0.244)	(−0.503)	(0.692)	(−0.482)	(−1.013)
N. of obs.	30	30	30	30	30	30
R-squared	0.135	0.301	0.391	0.407	0.600	0.604
Mean of dep var	2.133	0.467	0.600	2.133	0.467	0.600

Variable

Average risk rating 2013 and 2019

Increase in risk rating (0/1 dummy)

Increase in risk rating (absolute)

Average risk rating 2013 and 2019

Increase in risk rating (0/1 dummy)

Increase in risk rating (absolute)

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

Time since MDRI

−0.079^**

0.057^**

0.084^*

−0.011

0.103^**

0.224^***

(−0.032)

(0.025)

(0.048)

(−0.063)

(0.037)

(0.074)

Chinese flows 2000–12

0.280

0.445^***

1.135^***

0.102

0.347^**

0.848^***

(0.199)

(0.142)

(0.346)

(0.220)

(0.161)

(0.251)

Fragile state

0.351

0.215

0.467

(0.259)

(0.183)

(0.341)

Commodity exporter

0.330

−0.266^*

−0.364

(0.223)

(−0.143)

(−0.279)

Fuel exporter

0.415

0.471

1.515^**

(0.502)

(0.320)

(0.638)

East African community

−0.477

−0.690^***

−0.977^*

(−0.438)

(−0.200)

(−0.497)

CFA country

−0.419^*

−0.307

−0.200

(−0.230)

(−0.183)

(−0.296)

Constant

2.882^***

−0.384

−0.898^*

2.031^***

−0.661

−2.310^**

(0.330)

(−0.244)

(−0.503)

(0.692)

(−0.482)

(−1.013)

N. of obs.

R-squared

0.135

0.301

0.391

0.407

0.600

0.604

Mean of dep var

2.133

0.467

0.600

2.133

0.467

0.600

Variable	Average risk rating 2013 and 2019	Increase in risk rating (0/1 dummy)	Increase in risk rating (absolute)	Average risk rating 2013 and 2019	Increase in risk rating (0/1 dummy)	Increase in risk rating (absolute)
Time since MDRI	−0.079^**	0.057^**	0.084^*	−0.011	0.103^**	0.224^***
	(−0.032)	(0.025)	(0.048)	(−0.063)	(0.037)	(0.074)
Chinese flows 2000–12	0.280	0.445^***	1.135^***	0.102	0.347^**	0.848^***
	(0.199)	(0.142)	(0.346)	(0.220)	(0.161)	(0.251)
Fragile state				0.351	0.215	0.467
				(0.259)	(0.183)	(0.341)
Commodity exporter				0.330	−0.266^*	−0.364
				(0.223)	(−0.143)	(−0.279)
Fuel exporter				0.415	0.471	1.515^**
				(0.502)	(0.320)	(0.638)
East African community				−0.477	−0.690^***	−0.977^*
				(−0.438)	(−0.200)	(−0.497)
CFA country				−0.419^*	−0.307	−0.200
				(−0.230)	(−0.183)	(−0.296)
Constant	2.882^***	−0.384	−0.898^*	2.031^***	−0.661	−2.310^**
	(0.330)	(−0.244)	(−0.503)	(0.692)	(−0.482)	(−1.013)
N. of obs.	30	30	30	30	30	30
R-squared	0.135	0.301	0.391	0.407	0.600	0.604
Mean of dep var	2.133	0.467	0.600	2.133	0.467	0.600

Table 5

Open in new tab

LIC DSF Ratings Among the African HIPCs, 2013 and 2019

Variable	Average risk rating 2013 and 2019	Increase in risk rating (0/1 dummy)	Increase in risk rating (absolute)	Average risk rating 2013 and 2019	Increase in risk rating (0/1 dummy)	Increase in risk rating (absolute)
Variable	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
Time since MDRI	−0.079^**	0.057^**	0.084^*	−0.011	0.103^**	0.224^***
	(−0.032)	(0.025)	(0.048)	(−0.063)	(0.037)	(0.074)
Chinese flows 2000–12	0.280	0.445^***	1.135^***	0.102	0.347^**	0.848^***
	(0.199)	(0.142)	(0.346)	(0.220)	(0.161)	(0.251)
Fragile state				0.351	0.215	0.467
				(0.259)	(0.183)	(0.341)
Commodity exporter				0.330	−0.266^*	−0.364
				(0.223)	(−0.143)	(−0.279)
Fuel exporter				0.415	0.471	1.515^**
				(0.502)	(0.320)	(0.638)
East African community				−0.477	−0.690^***	−0.977^*
				(−0.438)	(−0.200)	(−0.497)
CFA country				−0.419^*	−0.307	−0.200
				(−0.230)	(−0.183)	(−0.296)
Constant	2.882^***	−0.384	−0.898^*	2.031^***	−0.661	−2.310^**
	(0.330)	(−0.244)	(−0.503)	(0.692)	(−0.482)	(−1.013)
N. of obs.	30	30	30	30	30	30
R-squared	0.135	0.301	0.391	0.407	0.600	0.604
Mean of dep var	2.133	0.467	0.600	2.133	0.467	0.600

Variable	Average risk rating 2013 and 2019	Increase in risk rating (0/1 dummy)	Increase in risk rating (absolute)	Average risk rating 2013 and 2019	Increase in risk rating (0/1 dummy)	Increase in risk rating (absolute)
Variable	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
Time since MDRI	−0.079^**	0.057^**	0.084^*	−0.011	0.103^**	0.224^***
	(−0.032)	(0.025)	(0.048)	(−0.063)	(0.037)	(0.074)
Chinese flows 2000–12	0.280	0.445^***	1.135^***	0.102	0.347^**	0.848^***
	(0.199)	(0.142)	(0.346)	(0.220)	(0.161)	(0.251)
Fragile state				0.351	0.215	0.467
				(0.259)	(0.183)	(0.341)
Commodity exporter				0.330	−0.266^*	−0.364
				(0.223)	(−0.143)	(−0.279)
Fuel exporter				0.415	0.471	1.515^**
				(0.502)	(0.320)	(0.638)
East African community				−0.477	−0.690^***	−0.977^*
				(−0.438)	(−0.200)	(−0.497)
CFA country				−0.419^*	−0.307	−0.200
				(−0.230)	(−0.183)	(−0.296)
Constant	2.882^***	−0.384	−0.898^*	2.031^***	−0.661	−2.310^**
	(0.330)	(−0.244)	(−0.503)	(0.692)	(−0.482)	(−1.013)
N. of obs.	30	30	30	30	30	30
R-squared	0.135	0.301	0.391	0.407	0.600	0.604
Mean of dep var	2.133	0.467	0.600	2.133	0.467	0.600

Robust t-statistics are in parentheses (^*, ^** and ^*** denote significance at the 10%, 5% and 1% levels).

Note: These regressions omit Cabo Verde, Kenya and Lesotho because they were not eligible for MDRI relief. They omit Eritrea, Sudan and Zimbabwe because these countries were already in distress in 2013. They omit South Sudan because data on Chinese loan-like flows are unavailable before that country’s independence in 2012.

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