Table 1. Open in new tab Mock data...

Parameter	Truth	Prior	Best fit	ICCF	javelin
Case A: high signal-to-noise ratio (Fig. 2)
A₁	5.0	[0, 20]	\|$4.954^{+0.035}_{-0.035}$\|	–	–
A₂	12.0	[0, 20]	\|$12.04^{+0.10}_{-0.10}$\|	–	–
A₃	2.0	[0, 20]	\|$2.003^{+0.014}_{-0.014}$\|	–	–
B₁	100.0	[0, 1000]	\|$100.000^{+0.033}_{-0.035}$\|	–	–
B₂	85.0	[0, 1000]	\|$85.186^{+0.093}_{-0.096}$\|	–	–
B₃	90.0	[0, 1000]	\|$90.003^{+0.014}_{-0.014}$\|	–	–
s₁	0.0	[0, 10]	\|$0.509^{+0.027}_{-0.026}$\|	–	–
s₂	0.0	[0, 10]	\|$1.322^{+0.078}_{-0.069}$\|	–	–
s₃	0.0	[0, 10]	\|$0.197^{+0.013}_{-0.013}$\|	–	–
τ₂	5.0	[−50, 50]	\|$5.006^{+0.011}_{-0.013}$\|	\|$4.958^{+0.058}_{-0.062}$\|	\|$5.0061^{+0.0059}_{-0.0052}$\|
τ₃	10.0	[−50, 50]	\|$9.986^{+0.013}_{-0.010}$\|	\|$9.991^{+0.048}_{-0.040}$\|	\|$10.002^{+0.012}_{-0.011}$\|
Δ	–	[0.1, 10]	\|$0.239^{+0.010}_{-0.010}$\|	–	–
Case B: seasonal gaps (Fig. 4)
A₁	5.0	[0, 20]	\|$4.953^{+0.043}_{-0.043}$\|	–	–
A₂	12.0	[0, 20]	\|$12.57^{+0.18}_{-0.17}$\|	–	–
A₃	2.0	[0, 20]	\|$1.990^{+0.018}_{-0.018}$\|	–	–
B₁	100.0	[0, 1000]	\|$99.915^{+0.047}_{-0.048}$\|	–	–
B₂	85.0	[0, 1000]	\|$84.84^{+0.11}_{-0.11}$\|	–	–
B₃	90.0	[0, 1000]	\|$90.075^{+0.020}_{-0.020}$\|	–	–
s₁	0.0	[0, 10]	\|$0.396^{+0.031}_{-0.030}$\|	–	–
s₂	0.0	[0, 10]	\|$0.956^{+0.100}_{-0.093}$\|	–	–
s₃	0.0	[0, 10]	\|$0.172^{+0.020}_{-0.020}$\|	–	–
τ₂	5.0	[−50, 50]	\|$5.009^{+0.018}_{-0.013}$\|	\|$4.20^{+0.17}_{-0.15}$\|	\|$5.016^{+0.017}_{-0.019}$\|
τ₃	10.0	[−50, 50]	\|$9.993^{+0.021}_{-0.024}$\|	\|$8.56^{+0.18}_{-0.20}$\|	\|$10.037^{+0.049}_{-0.048}$\|
Δ	–	[0.1, 10]	\|$0.206^{+0.013}_{-0.012}$\|	–	–
Case C: low signal-to-noise ratio (Fig. 5)
A₁	5.0	[0, 20]	\|$4.35^{+0.19}_{-0.19}$\|	–	–
A₂	12.0	[0, 20]	\|$11.82^{+0.59}_{-0.55}$\|	–	–
A₃	2.0	[0, 20]	\|$2.13^{+0.16}_{-0.16}$\|	–	–
B₁	100.0	[0, 1000]	\|$99.93^{+0.18}_{-0.19}$\|	–	–
B₂	85.0	[0, 1000]	\|$85.43^{+0.57}_{-0.56}$\|	–	–
B₃	90.0	[0, 1000]	\|$89.83^{+0.16}_{-0.16}$\|	–	–
s₁	0.0	[0, 10]	\|$0.44^{+0.34}_{-0.30}$\|	–	–
s₂	0.0	[0, 10]	\|$3.09^{+0.66}_{-0.71}$\|	–	–
s₃	0.0	[0, 10]	\|$0.77^{+0.30}_{-0.39}$\|	–	–
τ₂	5.0	[−50, 50]	\|$5.31^{+0.14}_{-0.15}$\|	\|$5.30^{+0.27}_{-0.32}$\|	\|$5.30^{+0.17}_{-0.15}$\|
τ₃	10.0	[−50, 50]	\|$10.16^{+0.23}_{-0.22}$\|	\|$10.30^{+0.45}_{-0.47}$\|	\|$10.22^{+0.24}_{-0.23}$\|
Δ	–	[0.1, 10]	\|$1.45^{+0.11}_{-0.10}$\|	–	–
Case D: high S/N with underestimated errors (Fig. 6)
A₁	5.0	[0, 20]	\|$4.965^{+0.034}_{-0.034}$\|	–	–
A₂	12.0	[0, 20]	\|$11.787^{+0.089}_{-0.093}$\|	–	–
A₃	2.0	[0, 20]	\|$2.003^{+0.013}_{-0.013}$\|	–	–
B₁	100.0	[0, 1000]	\|$99.962^{+0.032}_{-0.031}$\|	–	–
B₂	85.0	[0, 1000]	\|$85.072^{+0.085}_{-0.089}$\|	–	–
B₃	90.0	[0, 1000]	\|$90.001^{+0.013}_{-0.013}$\|	–	–
s₁	0.16	[0, 10]	\|$0.525^{+0.024}_{-0.023}$\|	–	–
s₂	0.42	[0, 10]	\|$1.212^{+0.066}_{-0.063}$\|	–	–
s₃	0.15	[0, 10]	\|$0.2478^{+0.0098}_{-0.0091}$\|	–	–
τ₂	5.0	[−50, 50]	\|$4.992^{+0.011}_{-0.013}$\|	\|$4.951^{+0.056}_{-0.059}$\|	\|$5.006^{+0.036}_{-0.012}$\|
τ₃	10.0	[−50, 50]	\|$9.974^{+0.013}_{-0.013}$\|	\|$9.993^{+0.041}_{-0.038}$\|	\|$9.975^{+0.042}_{-0.238}$\|
Δ	–	[0.1, 10]	\|$0.22^{+0.10}_{-0.10}$\|	–	–

Parameter

Truth

Prior

Best fit

ICCF

javelin

Case A: high signal-to-noise ratio (Fig. 2)

A₁

5.0

[0, 20]

|$4.954^{+0.035}_{-0.035}$|

–

A₂

12.0

[0, 20]

|$12.04^{+0.10}_{-0.10}$|

–

A₃

2.0

[0, 20]

|$2.003^{+0.014}_{-0.014}$|

–

B₁

100.0

[0, 1000]

|$100.000^{+0.033}_{-0.035}$|

–

B₂

85.0

[0, 1000]

|$85.186^{+0.093}_{-0.096}$|

–

B₃

90.0

[0, 1000]

|$90.003^{+0.014}_{-0.014}$|

–

s₁

0.0

[0, 10]

|$0.509^{+0.027}_{-0.026}$|

–

s₂

0.0

[0, 10]

|$1.322^{+0.078}_{-0.069}$|

–

s₃

0.0

[0, 10]

|$0.197^{+0.013}_{-0.013}$|

–

τ₂

5.0

[−50, 50]

|$5.006^{+0.011}_{-0.013}$|

|$4.958^{+0.058}_{-0.062}$|

|$5.0061^{+0.0059}_{-0.0052}$|

τ₃

10.0

[−50, 50]

|$9.986^{+0.013}_{-0.010}$|

|$9.991^{+0.048}_{-0.040}$|

|$10.002^{+0.012}_{-0.011}$|

–

[0.1, 10]

|$0.239^{+0.010}_{-0.010}$|

–

Case B: seasonal gaps (Fig. 4)

A₁

5.0

[0, 20]

|$4.953^{+0.043}_{-0.043}$|

–

A₂

12.0

[0, 20]

|$12.57^{+0.18}_{-0.17}$|

–

A₃

2.0

[0, 20]

|$1.990^{+0.018}_{-0.018}$|

–

B₁

100.0

[0, 1000]

|$99.915^{+0.047}_{-0.048}$|

–

B₂

85.0

[0, 1000]

|$84.84^{+0.11}_{-0.11}$|

–

B₃

90.0

[0, 1000]

|$90.075^{+0.020}_{-0.020}$|

–

s₁

0.0

[0, 10]

|$0.396^{+0.031}_{-0.030}$|

–

s₂

0.0

[0, 10]

|$0.956^{+0.100}_{-0.093}$|

–

s₃

0.0

[0, 10]

|$0.172^{+0.020}_{-0.020}$|

–

τ₂

5.0

[−50, 50]

|$5.009^{+0.018}_{-0.013}$|

|$4.20^{+0.17}_{-0.15}$|

|$5.016^{+0.017}_{-0.019}$|

τ₃

10.0

[−50, 50]

|$9.993^{+0.021}_{-0.024}$|

|$8.56^{+0.18}_{-0.20}$|

|$10.037^{+0.049}_{-0.048}$|

–

[0.1, 10]

|$0.206^{+0.013}_{-0.012}$|

–

Case C: low signal-to-noise ratio (Fig. 5)

A₁

5.0

[0, 20]

|$4.35^{+0.19}_{-0.19}$|

–

A₂

12.0

[0, 20]

|$11.82^{+0.59}_{-0.55}$|

–

A₃

2.0

[0, 20]

|$2.13^{+0.16}_{-0.16}$|

–

B₁

100.0

[0, 1000]

|$99.93^{+0.18}_{-0.19}$|

–

B₂

85.0

[0, 1000]

|$85.43^{+0.57}_{-0.56}$|

–

B₃

90.0

[0, 1000]

|$89.83^{+0.16}_{-0.16}$|

–

s₁

0.0

[0, 10]

|$0.44^{+0.34}_{-0.30}$|

–

s₂

0.0

[0, 10]

|$3.09^{+0.66}_{-0.71}$|

–

s₃

0.0

[0, 10]

|$0.77^{+0.30}_{-0.39}$|

–

τ₂

5.0

[−50, 50]

|$5.31^{+0.14}_{-0.15}$|

|$5.30^{+0.27}_{-0.32}$|

|$5.30^{+0.17}_{-0.15}$|

τ₃

10.0

[−50, 50]

|$10.16^{+0.23}_{-0.22}$|

|$10.30^{+0.45}_{-0.47}$|

|$10.22^{+0.24}_{-0.23}$|

–

[0.1, 10]

|$1.45^{+0.11}_{-0.10}$|

–

Case D: high S/N with underestimated errors (Fig. 6)

A₁

5.0

[0, 20]

|$4.965^{+0.034}_{-0.034}$|

–

A₂

12.0

[0, 20]

|$11.787^{+0.089}_{-0.093}$|

–

A₃

2.0

[0, 20]

|$2.003^{+0.013}_{-0.013}$|

–

B₁

100.0

[0, 1000]

|$99.962^{+0.032}_{-0.031}$|

–

B₂

85.0

[0, 1000]

|$85.072^{+0.085}_{-0.089}$|

–

B₃

90.0

[0, 1000]

|$90.001^{+0.013}_{-0.013}$|

–

s₁

0.16

[0, 10]

|$0.525^{+0.024}_{-0.023}$|

–

s₂

0.42

[0, 10]

|$1.212^{+0.066}_{-0.063}$|

–

s₃

0.15

[0, 10]

|$0.2478^{+0.0098}_{-0.0091}$|

–

τ₂

5.0

[−50, 50]

|$4.992^{+0.011}_{-0.013}$|

|$4.951^{+0.056}_{-0.059}$|

|$5.006^{+0.036}_{-0.012}$|

τ₃

10.0

[−50, 50]

|$9.974^{+0.013}_{-0.013}$|

|$9.993^{+0.041}_{-0.038}$|

|$9.975^{+0.042}_{-0.238}$|

–

[0.1, 10]

|$0.22^{+0.10}_{-0.10}$|

–

Parameter	Truth	Prior	Best fit	ICCF	javelin
Case A: high signal-to-noise ratio (Fig. 2)
A₁	5.0	[0, 20]	\|$4.954^{+0.035}_{-0.035}$\|	–	–
A₂	12.0	[0, 20]	\|$12.04^{+0.10}_{-0.10}$\|	–	–
A₃	2.0	[0, 20]	\|$2.003^{+0.014}_{-0.014}$\|	–	–
B₁	100.0	[0, 1000]	\|$100.000^{+0.033}_{-0.035}$\|	–	–
B₂	85.0	[0, 1000]	\|$85.186^{+0.093}_{-0.096}$\|	–	–
B₃	90.0	[0, 1000]	\|$90.003^{+0.014}_{-0.014}$\|	–	–
s₁	0.0	[0, 10]	\|$0.509^{+0.027}_{-0.026}$\|	–	–
s₂	0.0	[0, 10]	\|$1.322^{+0.078}_{-0.069}$\|	–	–
s₃	0.0	[0, 10]	\|$0.197^{+0.013}_{-0.013}$\|	–	–
τ₂	5.0	[−50, 50]	\|$5.006^{+0.011}_{-0.013}$\|	\|$4.958^{+0.058}_{-0.062}$\|	\|$5.0061^{+0.0059}_{-0.0052}$\|
τ₃	10.0	[−50, 50]	\|$9.986^{+0.013}_{-0.010}$\|	\|$9.991^{+0.048}_{-0.040}$\|	\|$10.002^{+0.012}_{-0.011}$\|
Δ	–	[0.1, 10]	\|$0.239^{+0.010}_{-0.010}$\|	–	–
Case B: seasonal gaps (Fig. 4)
A₁	5.0	[0, 20]	\|$4.953^{+0.043}_{-0.043}$\|	–	–
A₂	12.0	[0, 20]	\|$12.57^{+0.18}_{-0.17}$\|	–	–
A₃	2.0	[0, 20]	\|$1.990^{+0.018}_{-0.018}$\|	–	–
B₁	100.0	[0, 1000]	\|$99.915^{+0.047}_{-0.048}$\|	–	–
B₂	85.0	[0, 1000]	\|$84.84^{+0.11}_{-0.11}$\|	–	–
B₃	90.0	[0, 1000]	\|$90.075^{+0.020}_{-0.020}$\|	–	–
s₁	0.0	[0, 10]	\|$0.396^{+0.031}_{-0.030}$\|	–	–
s₂	0.0	[0, 10]	\|$0.956^{+0.100}_{-0.093}$\|	–	–
s₃	0.0	[0, 10]	\|$0.172^{+0.020}_{-0.020}$\|	–	–
τ₂	5.0	[−50, 50]	\|$5.009^{+0.018}_{-0.013}$\|	\|$4.20^{+0.17}_{-0.15}$\|	\|$5.016^{+0.017}_{-0.019}$\|
τ₃	10.0	[−50, 50]	\|$9.993^{+0.021}_{-0.024}$\|	\|$8.56^{+0.18}_{-0.20}$\|	\|$10.037^{+0.049}_{-0.048}$\|
Δ	–	[0.1, 10]	\|$0.206^{+0.013}_{-0.012}$\|	–	–
Case C: low signal-to-noise ratio (Fig. 5)
A₁	5.0	[0, 20]	\|$4.35^{+0.19}_{-0.19}$\|	–	–
A₂	12.0	[0, 20]	\|$11.82^{+0.59}_{-0.55}$\|	–	–
A₃	2.0	[0, 20]	\|$2.13^{+0.16}_{-0.16}$\|	–	–
B₁	100.0	[0, 1000]	\|$99.93^{+0.18}_{-0.19}$\|	–	–
B₂	85.0	[0, 1000]	\|$85.43^{+0.57}_{-0.56}$\|	–	–
B₃	90.0	[0, 1000]	\|$89.83^{+0.16}_{-0.16}$\|	–	–
s₁	0.0	[0, 10]	\|$0.44^{+0.34}_{-0.30}$\|	–	–
s₂	0.0	[0, 10]	\|$3.09^{+0.66}_{-0.71}$\|	–	–
s₃	0.0	[0, 10]	\|$0.77^{+0.30}_{-0.39}$\|	–	–
τ₂	5.0	[−50, 50]	\|$5.31^{+0.14}_{-0.15}$\|	\|$5.30^{+0.27}_{-0.32}$\|	\|$5.30^{+0.17}_{-0.15}$\|
τ₃	10.0	[−50, 50]	\|$10.16^{+0.23}_{-0.22}$\|	\|$10.30^{+0.45}_{-0.47}$\|	\|$10.22^{+0.24}_{-0.23}$\|
Δ	–	[0.1, 10]	\|$1.45^{+0.11}_{-0.10}$\|	–	–
Case D: high S/N with underestimated errors (Fig. 6)
A₁	5.0	[0, 20]	\|$4.965^{+0.034}_{-0.034}$\|	–	–
A₂	12.0	[0, 20]	\|$11.787^{+0.089}_{-0.093}$\|	–	–
A₃	2.0	[0, 20]	\|$2.003^{+0.013}_{-0.013}$\|	–	–
B₁	100.0	[0, 1000]	\|$99.962^{+0.032}_{-0.031}$\|	–	–
B₂	85.0	[0, 1000]	\|$85.072^{+0.085}_{-0.089}$\|	–	–
B₃	90.0	[0, 1000]	\|$90.001^{+0.013}_{-0.013}$\|	–	–
s₁	0.16	[0, 10]	\|$0.525^{+0.024}_{-0.023}$\|	–	–
s₂	0.42	[0, 10]	\|$1.212^{+0.066}_{-0.063}$\|	–	–
s₃	0.15	[0, 10]	\|$0.2478^{+0.0098}_{-0.0091}$\|	–	–
τ₂	5.0	[−50, 50]	\|$4.992^{+0.011}_{-0.013}$\|	\|$4.951^{+0.056}_{-0.059}$\|	\|$5.006^{+0.036}_{-0.012}$\|
τ₃	10.0	[−50, 50]	\|$9.974^{+0.013}_{-0.013}$\|	\|$9.993^{+0.041}_{-0.038}$\|	\|$9.975^{+0.042}_{-0.238}$\|
Δ	–	[0.1, 10]	\|$0.22^{+0.10}_{-0.10}$\|	–	–

Parameter

Truth

Prior

Best fit

ICCF

javelin

Case A: high signal-to-noise ratio (Fig. 2)

A₁

5.0

[0, 20]

|$4.954^{+0.035}_{-0.035}$|

–

A₂

12.0

[0, 20]

|$12.04^{+0.10}_{-0.10}$|

–

A₃

2.0

[0, 20]

|$2.003^{+0.014}_{-0.014}$|

–

B₁

100.0

[0, 1000]

|$100.000^{+0.033}_{-0.035}$|

–

B₂

85.0

[0, 1000]

|$85.186^{+0.093}_{-0.096}$|

–

B₃

90.0

[0, 1000]

|$90.003^{+0.014}_{-0.014}$|

–

s₁

0.0

[0, 10]

|$0.509^{+0.027}_{-0.026}$|

–

s₂

0.0

[0, 10]

|$1.322^{+0.078}_{-0.069}$|

–

s₃

0.0

[0, 10]

|$0.197^{+0.013}_{-0.013}$|

–

τ₂

5.0

[−50, 50]

|$5.006^{+0.011}_{-0.013}$|

|$4.958^{+0.058}_{-0.062}$|

|$5.0061^{+0.0059}_{-0.0052}$|

τ₃

10.0

[−50, 50]

|$9.986^{+0.013}_{-0.010}$|

|$9.991^{+0.048}_{-0.040}$|

|$10.002^{+0.012}_{-0.011}$|

–

[0.1, 10]

|$0.239^{+0.010}_{-0.010}$|

–

Case B: seasonal gaps (Fig. 4)

A₁

5.0

[0, 20]

|$4.953^{+0.043}_{-0.043}$|

–

A₂

12.0

[0, 20]

|$12.57^{+0.18}_{-0.17}$|

–

A₃

2.0

[0, 20]

|$1.990^{+0.018}_{-0.018}$|

–

B₁

100.0

[0, 1000]

|$99.915^{+0.047}_{-0.048}$|

–

B₂

85.0

[0, 1000]

|$84.84^{+0.11}_{-0.11}$|

–

B₃

90.0

[0, 1000]

|$90.075^{+0.020}_{-0.020}$|

–

s₁

0.0

[0, 10]

|$0.396^{+0.031}_{-0.030}$|

–

s₂

0.0

[0, 10]

|$0.956^{+0.100}_{-0.093}$|

–

s₃

0.0

[0, 10]

|$0.172^{+0.020}_{-0.020}$|

–

τ₂

5.0

[−50, 50]

|$5.009^{+0.018}_{-0.013}$|

|$4.20^{+0.17}_{-0.15}$|

|$5.016^{+0.017}_{-0.019}$|

τ₃

10.0

[−50, 50]

|$9.993^{+0.021}_{-0.024}$|

|$8.56^{+0.18}_{-0.20}$|

|$10.037^{+0.049}_{-0.048}$|

–

[0.1, 10]

|$0.206^{+0.013}_{-0.012}$|

–

Case C: low signal-to-noise ratio (Fig. 5)

A₁

5.0

[0, 20]

|$4.35^{+0.19}_{-0.19}$|

–

A₂

12.0

[0, 20]

|$11.82^{+0.59}_{-0.55}$|

–

A₃

2.0

[0, 20]

|$2.13^{+0.16}_{-0.16}$|

–

B₁

100.0

[0, 1000]

|$99.93^{+0.18}_{-0.19}$|

–

B₂

85.0

[0, 1000]

|$85.43^{+0.57}_{-0.56}$|

–

B₃

90.0

[0, 1000]

|$89.83^{+0.16}_{-0.16}$|

–

s₁

0.0

[0, 10]

|$0.44^{+0.34}_{-0.30}$|

–

s₂

0.0

[0, 10]

|$3.09^{+0.66}_{-0.71}$|

–

s₃

0.0

[0, 10]

|$0.77^{+0.30}_{-0.39}$|

–

τ₂

5.0

[−50, 50]

|$5.31^{+0.14}_{-0.15}$|

|$5.30^{+0.27}_{-0.32}$|

|$5.30^{+0.17}_{-0.15}$|

τ₃

10.0

[−50, 50]

|$10.16^{+0.23}_{-0.22}$|

|$10.30^{+0.45}_{-0.47}$|

|$10.22^{+0.24}_{-0.23}$|

–

[0.1, 10]

|$1.45^{+0.11}_{-0.10}$|

–

Case D: high S/N with underestimated errors (Fig. 6)

A₁

5.0

[0, 20]

|$4.965^{+0.034}_{-0.034}$|

–

A₂

12.0

[0, 20]

|$11.787^{+0.089}_{-0.093}$|

–

A₃

2.0

[0, 20]

|$2.003^{+0.013}_{-0.013}$|

–

B₁

100.0

[0, 1000]

|$99.962^{+0.032}_{-0.031}$|

–

B₂

85.0

[0, 1000]

|$85.072^{+0.085}_{-0.089}$|

–

B₃

90.0

[0, 1000]

|$90.001^{+0.013}_{-0.013}$|

–

s₁

0.16

[0, 10]

|$0.525^{+0.024}_{-0.023}$|

–

s₂

0.42

[0, 10]

|$1.212^{+0.066}_{-0.063}$|

–

s₃

0.15

[0, 10]

|$0.2478^{+0.0098}_{-0.0091}$|

–

τ₂

5.0

[−50, 50]

|$4.992^{+0.011}_{-0.013}$|

|$4.951^{+0.056}_{-0.059}$|

|$5.006^{+0.036}_{-0.012}$|

τ₃

10.0

[−50, 50]

|$9.974^{+0.013}_{-0.013}$|

|$9.993^{+0.041}_{-0.038}$|

|$9.975^{+0.042}_{-0.238}$|

–

[0.1, 10]

|$0.22^{+0.10}_{-0.10}$|

–

Table 1.

Open in new tab

Mock data results.

Parameter	Truth	Prior	Best fit	ICCF	javelin
Case A: high signal-to-noise ratio (Fig. 2)
A₁	5.0	[0, 20]	\|$4.954^{+0.035}_{-0.035}$\|	–	–
A₂	12.0	[0, 20]	\|$12.04^{+0.10}_{-0.10}$\|	–	–
A₃	2.0	[0, 20]	\|$2.003^{+0.014}_{-0.014}$\|	–	–
B₁	100.0	[0, 1000]	\|$100.000^{+0.033}_{-0.035}$\|	–	–
B₂	85.0	[0, 1000]	\|$85.186^{+0.093}_{-0.096}$\|	–	–
B₃	90.0	[0, 1000]	\|$90.003^{+0.014}_{-0.014}$\|	–	–
s₁	0.0	[0, 10]	\|$0.509^{+0.027}_{-0.026}$\|	–	–
s₂	0.0	[0, 10]	\|$1.322^{+0.078}_{-0.069}$\|	–	–
s₃	0.0	[0, 10]	\|$0.197^{+0.013}_{-0.013}$\|	–	–
τ₂	5.0	[−50, 50]	\|$5.006^{+0.011}_{-0.013}$\|	\|$4.958^{+0.058}_{-0.062}$\|	\|$5.0061^{+0.0059}_{-0.0052}$\|
τ₃	10.0	[−50, 50]	\|$9.986^{+0.013}_{-0.010}$\|	\|$9.991^{+0.048}_{-0.040}$\|	\|$10.002^{+0.012}_{-0.011}$\|
Δ	–	[0.1, 10]	\|$0.239^{+0.010}_{-0.010}$\|	–	–
Case B: seasonal gaps (Fig. 4)
A₁	5.0	[0, 20]	\|$4.953^{+0.043}_{-0.043}$\|	–	–
A₂	12.0	[0, 20]	\|$12.57^{+0.18}_{-0.17}$\|	–	–
A₃	2.0	[0, 20]	\|$1.990^{+0.018}_{-0.018}$\|	–	–
B₁	100.0	[0, 1000]	\|$99.915^{+0.047}_{-0.048}$\|	–	–
B₂	85.0	[0, 1000]	\|$84.84^{+0.11}_{-0.11}$\|	–	–
B₃	90.0	[0, 1000]	\|$90.075^{+0.020}_{-0.020}$\|	–	–
s₁	0.0	[0, 10]	\|$0.396^{+0.031}_{-0.030}$\|	–	–
s₂	0.0	[0, 10]	\|$0.956^{+0.100}_{-0.093}$\|	–	–
s₃	0.0	[0, 10]	\|$0.172^{+0.020}_{-0.020}$\|	–	–
τ₂	5.0	[−50, 50]	\|$5.009^{+0.018}_{-0.013}$\|	\|$4.20^{+0.17}_{-0.15}$\|	\|$5.016^{+0.017}_{-0.019}$\|
τ₃	10.0	[−50, 50]	\|$9.993^{+0.021}_{-0.024}$\|	\|$8.56^{+0.18}_{-0.20}$\|	\|$10.037^{+0.049}_{-0.048}$\|
Δ	–	[0.1, 10]	\|$0.206^{+0.013}_{-0.012}$\|	–	–
Case C: low signal-to-noise ratio (Fig. 5)
A₁	5.0	[0, 20]	\|$4.35^{+0.19}_{-0.19}$\|	–	–
A₂	12.0	[0, 20]	\|$11.82^{+0.59}_{-0.55}$\|	–	–
A₃	2.0	[0, 20]	\|$2.13^{+0.16}_{-0.16}$\|	–	–
B₁	100.0	[0, 1000]	\|$99.93^{+0.18}_{-0.19}$\|	–	–
B₂	85.0	[0, 1000]	\|$85.43^{+0.57}_{-0.56}$\|	–	–
B₃	90.0	[0, 1000]	\|$89.83^{+0.16}_{-0.16}$\|	–	–
s₁	0.0	[0, 10]	\|$0.44^{+0.34}_{-0.30}$\|	–	–
s₂	0.0	[0, 10]	\|$3.09^{+0.66}_{-0.71}$\|	–	–
s₃	0.0	[0, 10]	\|$0.77^{+0.30}_{-0.39}$\|	–	–
τ₂	5.0	[−50, 50]	\|$5.31^{+0.14}_{-0.15}$\|	\|$5.30^{+0.27}_{-0.32}$\|	\|$5.30^{+0.17}_{-0.15}$\|
τ₃	10.0	[−50, 50]	\|$10.16^{+0.23}_{-0.22}$\|	\|$10.30^{+0.45}_{-0.47}$\|	\|$10.22^{+0.24}_{-0.23}$\|
Δ	–	[0.1, 10]	\|$1.45^{+0.11}_{-0.10}$\|	–	–
Case D: high S/N with underestimated errors (Fig. 6)
A₁	5.0	[0, 20]	\|$4.965^{+0.034}_{-0.034}$\|	–	–
A₂	12.0	[0, 20]	\|$11.787^{+0.089}_{-0.093}$\|	–	–
A₃	2.0	[0, 20]	\|$2.003^{+0.013}_{-0.013}$\|	–	–
B₁	100.0	[0, 1000]	\|$99.962^{+0.032}_{-0.031}$\|	–	–
B₂	85.0	[0, 1000]	\|$85.072^{+0.085}_{-0.089}$\|	–	–
B₃	90.0	[0, 1000]	\|$90.001^{+0.013}_{-0.013}$\|	–	–
s₁	0.16	[0, 10]	\|$0.525^{+0.024}_{-0.023}$\|	–	–
s₂	0.42	[0, 10]	\|$1.212^{+0.066}_{-0.063}$\|	–	–
s₃	0.15	[0, 10]	\|$0.2478^{+0.0098}_{-0.0091}$\|	–	–
τ₂	5.0	[−50, 50]	\|$4.992^{+0.011}_{-0.013}$\|	\|$4.951^{+0.056}_{-0.059}$\|	\|$5.006^{+0.036}_{-0.012}$\|
τ₃	10.0	[−50, 50]	\|$9.974^{+0.013}_{-0.013}$\|	\|$9.993^{+0.041}_{-0.038}$\|	\|$9.975^{+0.042}_{-0.238}$\|
Δ	–	[0.1, 10]	\|$0.22^{+0.10}_{-0.10}$\|	–	–

Parameter	Truth	Prior	Best fit	ICCF	javelin
Case A: high signal-to-noise ratio (Fig. 2)
A₁	5.0	[0, 20]	\|$4.954^{+0.035}_{-0.035}$\|	–	–
A₂	12.0	[0, 20]	\|$12.04^{+0.10}_{-0.10}$\|	–	–
A₃	2.0	[0, 20]	\|$2.003^{+0.014}_{-0.014}$\|	–	–
B₁	100.0	[0, 1000]	\|$100.000^{+0.033}_{-0.035}$\|	–	–
B₂	85.0	[0, 1000]	\|$85.186^{+0.093}_{-0.096}$\|	–	–
B₃	90.0	[0, 1000]	\|$90.003^{+0.014}_{-0.014}$\|	–	–
s₁	0.0	[0, 10]	\|$0.509^{+0.027}_{-0.026}$\|	–	–
s₂	0.0	[0, 10]	\|$1.322^{+0.078}_{-0.069}$\|	–	–
s₃	0.0	[0, 10]	\|$0.197^{+0.013}_{-0.013}$\|	–	–
τ₂	5.0	[−50, 50]	\|$5.006^{+0.011}_{-0.013}$\|	\|$4.958^{+0.058}_{-0.062}$\|	\|$5.0061^{+0.0059}_{-0.0052}$\|
τ₃	10.0	[−50, 50]	\|$9.986^{+0.013}_{-0.010}$\|	\|$9.991^{+0.048}_{-0.040}$\|	\|$10.002^{+0.012}_{-0.011}$\|
Δ	–	[0.1, 10]	\|$0.239^{+0.010}_{-0.010}$\|	–	–
Case B: seasonal gaps (Fig. 4)
A₁	5.0	[0, 20]	\|$4.953^{+0.043}_{-0.043}$\|	–	–
A₂	12.0	[0, 20]	\|$12.57^{+0.18}_{-0.17}$\|	–	–
A₃	2.0	[0, 20]	\|$1.990^{+0.018}_{-0.018}$\|	–	–
B₁	100.0	[0, 1000]	\|$99.915^{+0.047}_{-0.048}$\|	–	–
B₂	85.0	[0, 1000]	\|$84.84^{+0.11}_{-0.11}$\|	–	–
B₃	90.0	[0, 1000]	\|$90.075^{+0.020}_{-0.020}$\|	–	–
s₁	0.0	[0, 10]	\|$0.396^{+0.031}_{-0.030}$\|	–	–
s₂	0.0	[0, 10]	\|$0.956^{+0.100}_{-0.093}$\|	–	–
s₃	0.0	[0, 10]	\|$0.172^{+0.020}_{-0.020}$\|	–	–
τ₂	5.0	[−50, 50]	\|$5.009^{+0.018}_{-0.013}$\|	\|$4.20^{+0.17}_{-0.15}$\|	\|$5.016^{+0.017}_{-0.019}$\|
τ₃	10.0	[−50, 50]	\|$9.993^{+0.021}_{-0.024}$\|	\|$8.56^{+0.18}_{-0.20}$\|	\|$10.037^{+0.049}_{-0.048}$\|
Δ	–	[0.1, 10]	\|$0.206^{+0.013}_{-0.012}$\|	–	–
Case C: low signal-to-noise ratio (Fig. 5)
A₁	5.0	[0, 20]	\|$4.35^{+0.19}_{-0.19}$\|	–	–
A₂	12.0	[0, 20]	\|$11.82^{+0.59}_{-0.55}$\|	–	–
A₃	2.0	[0, 20]	\|$2.13^{+0.16}_{-0.16}$\|	–	–
B₁	100.0	[0, 1000]	\|$99.93^{+0.18}_{-0.19}$\|	–	–
B₂	85.0	[0, 1000]	\|$85.43^{+0.57}_{-0.56}$\|	–	–
B₃	90.0	[0, 1000]	\|$89.83^{+0.16}_{-0.16}$\|	–	–
s₁	0.0	[0, 10]	\|$0.44^{+0.34}_{-0.30}$\|	–	–
s₂	0.0	[0, 10]	\|$3.09^{+0.66}_{-0.71}$\|	–	–
s₃	0.0	[0, 10]	\|$0.77^{+0.30}_{-0.39}$\|	–	–
τ₂	5.0	[−50, 50]	\|$5.31^{+0.14}_{-0.15}$\|	\|$5.30^{+0.27}_{-0.32}$\|	\|$5.30^{+0.17}_{-0.15}$\|
τ₃	10.0	[−50, 50]	\|$10.16^{+0.23}_{-0.22}$\|	\|$10.30^{+0.45}_{-0.47}$\|	\|$10.22^{+0.24}_{-0.23}$\|
Δ	–	[0.1, 10]	\|$1.45^{+0.11}_{-0.10}$\|	–	–
Case D: high S/N with underestimated errors (Fig. 6)
A₁	5.0	[0, 20]	\|$4.965^{+0.034}_{-0.034}$\|	–	–
A₂	12.0	[0, 20]	\|$11.787^{+0.089}_{-0.093}$\|	–	–
A₃	2.0	[0, 20]	\|$2.003^{+0.013}_{-0.013}$\|	–	–
B₁	100.0	[0, 1000]	\|$99.962^{+0.032}_{-0.031}$\|	–	–
B₂	85.0	[0, 1000]	\|$85.072^{+0.085}_{-0.089}$\|	–	–
B₃	90.0	[0, 1000]	\|$90.001^{+0.013}_{-0.013}$\|	–	–
s₁	0.16	[0, 10]	\|$0.525^{+0.024}_{-0.023}$\|	–	–
s₂	0.42	[0, 10]	\|$1.212^{+0.066}_{-0.063}$\|	–	–
s₃	0.15	[0, 10]	\|$0.2478^{+0.0098}_{-0.0091}$\|	–	–
τ₂	5.0	[−50, 50]	\|$4.992^{+0.011}_{-0.013}$\|	\|$4.951^{+0.056}_{-0.059}$\|	\|$5.006^{+0.036}_{-0.012}$\|
τ₃	10.0	[−50, 50]	\|$9.974^{+0.013}_{-0.013}$\|	\|$9.993^{+0.041}_{-0.038}$\|	\|$9.975^{+0.042}_{-0.238}$\|
Δ	–	[0.1, 10]	\|$0.22^{+0.10}_{-0.10}$\|	–	–

Note. Priors are uniform between the two limits given in the table.

This Feature Is Available To Subscribers Only