Table 2
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Estimated mean (standard deviation) improvement of clinical outcomes at predicted conversion time for the normal progression case by year of simulated intervention (100% and 50% amyloid lowering interventions).

Amyloid lowering intervention 100%
Point improvement per intervention time
−20−15−12.5−10−5−3−2−1
ADAS1111.1 (6.4)5.2 (2.9)3.0 (1.7)1.6 (1.0)0.3 (0.2)0.1 (0.1)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)
MMSE4.9 (2.8)2.3 (1.3)1.3 (0.8)0.7 (0.4)0.1 (0.1)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)
FAQ9.6 (5.6)4.5 (2.5)2.6 (1.5)1.4 (0.8)0.2 (0.2)0.1 (0.1)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)
RAVLT immediate15.3 (8.9)7.2 (4.1)4.2 (2.4)2.3 (1.4)0.5 (0.3)0.2 (0.1)0.1 (0.1)0.0 (0.0)
RAVLT learning2.7 (1.6)1.3 (0.7)0.7 (0.4)0.4 (0.2)0.1 (0.1)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)
RAVLT forgetting37.2 (21.5)17.7 (9.9)10.5 (6.0)5.8 (3.5)1.3 (0.9)0.5 (0.4)0.2 (0.2)0.1 (0.1)
CDRSB3.5 (2.0)1.6 (0.9)0.9 (0.5)0.5 (0.3)0.1 (0.1)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)
Amyloid lowering intervention 100%
Point improvement per intervention time
−20−15−12.5−10−5−3−2−1
ADAS1111.1 (6.4)5.2 (2.9)3.0 (1.7)1.6 (1.0)0.3 (0.2)0.1 (0.1)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)
MMSE4.9 (2.8)2.3 (1.3)1.3 (0.8)0.7 (0.4)0.1 (0.1)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)
FAQ9.6 (5.6)4.5 (2.5)2.6 (1.5)1.4 (0.8)0.2 (0.2)0.1 (0.1)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)
RAVLT immediate15.3 (8.9)7.2 (4.1)4.2 (2.4)2.3 (1.4)0.5 (0.3)0.2 (0.1)0.1 (0.1)0.0 (0.0)
RAVLT learning2.7 (1.6)1.3 (0.7)0.7 (0.4)0.4 (0.2)0.1 (0.1)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)
RAVLT forgetting37.2 (21.5)17.7 (9.9)10.5 (6.0)5.8 (3.5)1.3 (0.9)0.5 (0.4)0.2 (0.2)0.1 (0.1)
CDRSB3.5 (2.0)1.6 (0.9)0.9 (0.5)0.5 (0.3)0.1 (0.1)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)
Amyloid lowering intervention 50%
Point improvement per intervention time
−20−15−12.5−10−5−3−2−1
ADAS115.0 (2.5)2.4 (1.2)1.4 (0.7)0.8 (0.4)0.2 (0.1)0.1 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)
MMSE2.2 (1.1)1.0 (0.5)0.6 (0.3)0.4 (0.2)0.1 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)
FAQ4.3 (2.1)2.0 (1.0)1.2 (0.6)0.7 (0.4)0.1 (0.1)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)
RAVLT immediate6.9 (3.4)3.3 (1.6)1.9 (1.0)1.2 (0.6)0.2 (0.1)0.1 (0.1)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)
RAVLT learning1.2 (0.6)0.6 (0.3)0.3 (0.2)0.2 (0.1)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)
RAVLT forgetting16.7 (8.2)8.1 (4.0)4.8 (2.5)2.9 (1.6)0.6 (0.4)0.2 (0.2)0.1 (0.1)0.0 (0.0)
CDRSB1.6 (0.8)0.7 (0.4)0.4 (0.2)0.2 (0.1)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)
Amyloid lowering intervention 50%
Point improvement per intervention time
−20−15−12.5−10−5−3−2−1
ADAS115.0 (2.5)2.4 (1.2)1.4 (0.7)0.8 (0.4)0.2 (0.1)0.1 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)
MMSE2.2 (1.1)1.0 (0.5)0.6 (0.3)0.4 (0.2)0.1 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)
FAQ4.3 (2.1)2.0 (1.0)1.2 (0.6)0.7 (0.4)0.1 (0.1)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)
RAVLT immediate6.9 (3.4)3.3 (1.6)1.9 (1.0)1.2 (0.6)0.2 (0.1)0.1 (0.1)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)
RAVLT learning1.2 (0.6)0.6 (0.3)0.3 (0.2)0.2 (0.1)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)
RAVLT forgetting16.7 (8.2)8.1 (4.0)4.8 (2.5)2.9 (1.6)0.6 (0.4)0.2 (0.2)0.1 (0.1)0.0 (0.0)
CDRSB1.6 (0.8)0.7 (0.4)0.4 (0.2)0.2 (0.1)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)

Results in bold indicate a statistically significant difference between placebo and treated scenarios (P < 0.01, two-sided t-test, 100 cases per arm).

AD, Alzheimer's dementia; ADAS11, Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale; CDRSB, Clinical Dementia rating Scale Sum of Boxes; FAQ: Functional Assessment Questionnaire; MMSE, Mini-Mental State Examination; RAVLT, Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Test.

Table 2
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Estimated mean (standard deviation) improvement of clinical outcomes at predicted conversion time for the normal progression case by year of simulated intervention (100% and 50% amyloid lowering interventions).

Amyloid lowering intervention 100%
Point improvement per intervention time
−20−15−12.5−10−5−3−2−1
ADAS1111.1 (6.4)5.2 (2.9)3.0 (1.7)1.6 (1.0)0.3 (0.2)0.1 (0.1)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)
MMSE4.9 (2.8)2.3 (1.3)1.3 (0.8)0.7 (0.4)0.1 (0.1)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)
FAQ9.6 (5.6)4.5 (2.5)2.6 (1.5)1.4 (0.8)0.2 (0.2)0.1 (0.1)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)
RAVLT immediate15.3 (8.9)7.2 (4.1)4.2 (2.4)2.3 (1.4)0.5 (0.3)0.2 (0.1)0.1 (0.1)0.0 (0.0)
RAVLT learning2.7 (1.6)1.3 (0.7)0.7 (0.4)0.4 (0.2)0.1 (0.1)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)
RAVLT forgetting37.2 (21.5)17.7 (9.9)10.5 (6.0)5.8 (3.5)1.3 (0.9)0.5 (0.4)0.2 (0.2)0.1 (0.1)
CDRSB3.5 (2.0)1.6 (0.9)0.9 (0.5)0.5 (0.3)0.1 (0.1)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)
Amyloid lowering intervention 100%
Point improvement per intervention time
−20−15−12.5−10−5−3−2−1
ADAS1111.1 (6.4)5.2 (2.9)3.0 (1.7)1.6 (1.0)0.3 (0.2)0.1 (0.1)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)
MMSE4.9 (2.8)2.3 (1.3)1.3 (0.8)0.7 (0.4)0.1 (0.1)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)
FAQ9.6 (5.6)4.5 (2.5)2.6 (1.5)1.4 (0.8)0.2 (0.2)0.1 (0.1)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)
RAVLT immediate15.3 (8.9)7.2 (4.1)4.2 (2.4)2.3 (1.4)0.5 (0.3)0.2 (0.1)0.1 (0.1)0.0 (0.0)
RAVLT learning2.7 (1.6)1.3 (0.7)0.7 (0.4)0.4 (0.2)0.1 (0.1)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)
RAVLT forgetting37.2 (21.5)17.7 (9.9)10.5 (6.0)5.8 (3.5)1.3 (0.9)0.5 (0.4)0.2 (0.2)0.1 (0.1)
CDRSB3.5 (2.0)1.6 (0.9)0.9 (0.5)0.5 (0.3)0.1 (0.1)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)
Amyloid lowering intervention 50%
Point improvement per intervention time
−20−15−12.5−10−5−3−2−1
ADAS115.0 (2.5)2.4 (1.2)1.4 (0.7)0.8 (0.4)0.2 (0.1)0.1 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)
MMSE2.2 (1.1)1.0 (0.5)0.6 (0.3)0.4 (0.2)0.1 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)
FAQ4.3 (2.1)2.0 (1.0)1.2 (0.6)0.7 (0.4)0.1 (0.1)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)
RAVLT immediate6.9 (3.4)3.3 (1.6)1.9 (1.0)1.2 (0.6)0.2 (0.1)0.1 (0.1)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)
RAVLT learning1.2 (0.6)0.6 (0.3)0.3 (0.2)0.2 (0.1)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)
RAVLT forgetting16.7 (8.2)8.1 (4.0)4.8 (2.5)2.9 (1.6)0.6 (0.4)0.2 (0.2)0.1 (0.1)0.0 (0.0)
CDRSB1.6 (0.8)0.7 (0.4)0.4 (0.2)0.2 (0.1)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)
Amyloid lowering intervention 50%
Point improvement per intervention time
−20−15−12.5−10−5−3−2−1
ADAS115.0 (2.5)2.4 (1.2)1.4 (0.7)0.8 (0.4)0.2 (0.1)0.1 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)
MMSE2.2 (1.1)1.0 (0.5)0.6 (0.3)0.4 (0.2)0.1 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)
FAQ4.3 (2.1)2.0 (1.0)1.2 (0.6)0.7 (0.4)0.1 (0.1)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)
RAVLT immediate6.9 (3.4)3.3 (1.6)1.9 (1.0)1.2 (0.6)0.2 (0.1)0.1 (0.1)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)
RAVLT learning1.2 (0.6)0.6 (0.3)0.3 (0.2)0.2 (0.1)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)
RAVLT forgetting16.7 (8.2)8.1 (4.0)4.8 (2.5)2.9 (1.6)0.6 (0.4)0.2 (0.2)0.1 (0.1)0.0 (0.0)
CDRSB1.6 (0.8)0.7 (0.4)0.4 (0.2)0.2 (0.1)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)0.0 (0.0)

Results in bold indicate a statistically significant difference between placebo and treated scenarios (P < 0.01, two-sided t-test, 100 cases per arm).

AD, Alzheimer's dementia; ADAS11, Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale; CDRSB, Clinical Dementia rating Scale Sum of Boxes; FAQ: Functional Assessment Questionnaire; MMSE, Mini-Mental State Examination; RAVLT, Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Test.

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