Calibration and discrimination statistics for IBIS and BOADICEA 10-year risk scoresa
| Risk model . | Case-cohort, No. . | Subcohort, No. . | Expected No. of cases . | Observed No. of cases . | Expected/Observed ratio (robust 95% CI) . | Concordance statistic (95% CI) . |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||||
| IBIS | 3098 | 2783 | 431.3 | 408 | 1.06 (0.95 to 1.17) | 0.62 (0.60 to 0.65) |
| BOADICEA | 3098 | 2783 | 346.9 | 408 | 0.85 (0.77 to 0.94) | 0.62 (0.59 to 0.64) |
| Age 50-64 years at baseline | ||||||
| IBIS | 1732 | 1549 | 256.8 | 235 | 1.09 (0.95 to 1.25) | 0.64 (0.60 to 0.67) |
| BOADICEA | 1732 | 1549 | 220.7 | 235 | 0.94 (0.82 to 1.07) | 0.65 (0.62 to 0.68) |
| Age 65-75 years at baseline | ||||||
| IBIS | 1366 | 1234 | 174.6 | 173 | 1.01 (0.86 to 1.18) | 0.60 (0.55 to 0.65) |
| BOADICEA | 1366 | 1234 | 126.6 | 173 | 0.73 (0.63 to 0.85) | 0.58 (0.53 to 0.62) |
| No family history of breast cancer | ||||||
| IBIS | 2401 | 2185 | 272.3 | 292 | 0.93 (0.83 to 1.05) | 0.61 (0.58 to 0.65) |
| BOADICEA | 2401 | 2185 | 249.1 | 292 | 0.85 (0.76 to 0.96) | 0.61 (0.57 to 0.64) |
| Family history of breast cancer | ||||||
| IBIS | 697 | 598 | 159.7 | 116 | 1.38 (1.13 to 1.67) | 0.63 (0.58 to 0.68) |
| BOADICEA | 697 | 598 | 98.1 | 116 | 0.85 (0.70 to 1.02) | 0.61 (0.56 to 0.66) |
| Risk model . | Case-cohort, No. . | Subcohort, No. . | Expected No. of cases . | Observed No. of cases . | Expected/Observed ratio (robust 95% CI) . | Concordance statistic (95% CI) . |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||||
| IBIS | 3098 | 2783 | 431.3 | 408 | 1.06 (0.95 to 1.17) | 0.62 (0.60 to 0.65) |
| BOADICEA | 3098 | 2783 | 346.9 | 408 | 0.85 (0.77 to 0.94) | 0.62 (0.59 to 0.64) |
| Age 50-64 years at baseline | ||||||
| IBIS | 1732 | 1549 | 256.8 | 235 | 1.09 (0.95 to 1.25) | 0.64 (0.60 to 0.67) |
| BOADICEA | 1732 | 1549 | 220.7 | 235 | 0.94 (0.82 to 1.07) | 0.65 (0.62 to 0.68) |
| Age 65-75 years at baseline | ||||||
| IBIS | 1366 | 1234 | 174.6 | 173 | 1.01 (0.86 to 1.18) | 0.60 (0.55 to 0.65) |
| BOADICEA | 1366 | 1234 | 126.6 | 173 | 0.73 (0.63 to 0.85) | 0.58 (0.53 to 0.62) |
| No family history of breast cancer | ||||||
| IBIS | 2401 | 2185 | 272.3 | 292 | 0.93 (0.83 to 1.05) | 0.61 (0.58 to 0.65) |
| BOADICEA | 2401 | 2185 | 249.1 | 292 | 0.85 (0.76 to 0.96) | 0.61 (0.57 to 0.64) |
| Family history of breast cancer | ||||||
| IBIS | 697 | 598 | 159.7 | 116 | 1.38 (1.13 to 1.67) | 0.63 (0.58 to 0.68) |
| BOADICEA | 697 | 598 | 98.1 | 116 | 0.85 (0.70 to 1.02) | 0.61 (0.56 to 0.66) |
Model: age, family history, lifestyle factors and PRS. CI = confidence interval; BOADICEA = Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm model (version 5.0.0); IBIS = International Breast Cancer Intervention Study model (version 8 b); PRS = polygenic risk score based on 313 single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with breast cancer.
Calibration and discrimination statistics for IBIS and BOADICEA 10-year risk scoresa
| Risk model . | Case-cohort, No. . | Subcohort, No. . | Expected No. of cases . | Observed No. of cases . | Expected/Observed ratio (robust 95% CI) . | Concordance statistic (95% CI) . |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||||
| IBIS | 3098 | 2783 | 431.3 | 408 | 1.06 (0.95 to 1.17) | 0.62 (0.60 to 0.65) |
| BOADICEA | 3098 | 2783 | 346.9 | 408 | 0.85 (0.77 to 0.94) | 0.62 (0.59 to 0.64) |
| Age 50-64 years at baseline | ||||||
| IBIS | 1732 | 1549 | 256.8 | 235 | 1.09 (0.95 to 1.25) | 0.64 (0.60 to 0.67) |
| BOADICEA | 1732 | 1549 | 220.7 | 235 | 0.94 (0.82 to 1.07) | 0.65 (0.62 to 0.68) |
| Age 65-75 years at baseline | ||||||
| IBIS | 1366 | 1234 | 174.6 | 173 | 1.01 (0.86 to 1.18) | 0.60 (0.55 to 0.65) |
| BOADICEA | 1366 | 1234 | 126.6 | 173 | 0.73 (0.63 to 0.85) | 0.58 (0.53 to 0.62) |
| No family history of breast cancer | ||||||
| IBIS | 2401 | 2185 | 272.3 | 292 | 0.93 (0.83 to 1.05) | 0.61 (0.58 to 0.65) |
| BOADICEA | 2401 | 2185 | 249.1 | 292 | 0.85 (0.76 to 0.96) | 0.61 (0.57 to 0.64) |
| Family history of breast cancer | ||||||
| IBIS | 697 | 598 | 159.7 | 116 | 1.38 (1.13 to 1.67) | 0.63 (0.58 to 0.68) |
| BOADICEA | 697 | 598 | 98.1 | 116 | 0.85 (0.70 to 1.02) | 0.61 (0.56 to 0.66) |
| Risk model . | Case-cohort, No. . | Subcohort, No. . | Expected No. of cases . | Observed No. of cases . | Expected/Observed ratio (robust 95% CI) . | Concordance statistic (95% CI) . |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||||
| IBIS | 3098 | 2783 | 431.3 | 408 | 1.06 (0.95 to 1.17) | 0.62 (0.60 to 0.65) |
| BOADICEA | 3098 | 2783 | 346.9 | 408 | 0.85 (0.77 to 0.94) | 0.62 (0.59 to 0.64) |
| Age 50-64 years at baseline | ||||||
| IBIS | 1732 | 1549 | 256.8 | 235 | 1.09 (0.95 to 1.25) | 0.64 (0.60 to 0.67) |
| BOADICEA | 1732 | 1549 | 220.7 | 235 | 0.94 (0.82 to 1.07) | 0.65 (0.62 to 0.68) |
| Age 65-75 years at baseline | ||||||
| IBIS | 1366 | 1234 | 174.6 | 173 | 1.01 (0.86 to 1.18) | 0.60 (0.55 to 0.65) |
| BOADICEA | 1366 | 1234 | 126.6 | 173 | 0.73 (0.63 to 0.85) | 0.58 (0.53 to 0.62) |
| No family history of breast cancer | ||||||
| IBIS | 2401 | 2185 | 272.3 | 292 | 0.93 (0.83 to 1.05) | 0.61 (0.58 to 0.65) |
| BOADICEA | 2401 | 2185 | 249.1 | 292 | 0.85 (0.76 to 0.96) | 0.61 (0.57 to 0.64) |
| Family history of breast cancer | ||||||
| IBIS | 697 | 598 | 159.7 | 116 | 1.38 (1.13 to 1.67) | 0.63 (0.58 to 0.68) |
| BOADICEA | 697 | 598 | 98.1 | 116 | 0.85 (0.70 to 1.02) | 0.61 (0.56 to 0.66) |
Model: age, family history, lifestyle factors and PRS. CI = confidence interval; BOADICEA = Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm model (version 5.0.0); IBIS = International Breast Cancer Intervention Study model (version 8 b); PRS = polygenic risk score based on 313 single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with breast cancer.
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