Table 2. Open in new tab Population...

		Prevalence				Cumulative impact^a
Male
Status quo	Current	56.9%	34.8%	20.0%	6.3%	—	—	—
	Former	16.1%	25.3%	25.5%	20.6%	—	—	—
	SADs	250 701	284 725	295 371	172 499	7 191 782	14 370 583	26 505 181
	LYLs	2 956 834	3 406 323	3 892 702	1 337 864	85 813 480	178 617 477	293 682 931
VLNC: midpoint	Current	56.9%	12.1%	4.0%	1.3%	−65.3%	−80.0%	−79.5%
	Former	16.1%	24.9%	13.8%	4.9%	−1.7%	−45.8%	−76.1%
	Av SADs	0	109 115	169 830	133 762	2 143 512	5 461 853	13 922 577
	LYGs	0	1 813 044	2 919 507	1 092 477	31 828 245	93 283 758	184 122 616
VLNC: lower bound	Current	56.9%	19.4%	8.1%	2.4%	−44.2%	−59.7%	−62.1%
	Former	16.1%	26.0%	18.7%	9.0%	2.5%	−26.7%	−56.1%
	Av SADs	0	76 664	123 647	100 269	1 323 666	3 730 136	9 989 982
	LYGs	0	1 240 005	2 179 537	856 810	19 426 216	63 799 750	134 256 734
VLNC: upper bound	Current	56.9%	4.4%	1.0%	0.4%	−87.4%	−94.8%	−93.6%
	Former	16.1%	21.5%	6.9%	1.5%	−15.3%	−72.8%	−92.6%
	Av SADs	0	129 515	209 341	161 211	2 889 890	6 885 155	17 382 498
	LYGs	0	2 233 913	3 454 269	1 266 465	43 941 649	117 868 590	224 382 828
Female
Status quo	Current	35.4%	30.3%	16.4%	5.8%	—	—	—
	Former	5.3%	16.3%	21.3%	13.8%	—	—	—
	SADs	36 062	143 063	140 210	69 488	2 466 932	6 019 333	11 874 669
	LYLs	535 523	1 693 556	1 802 867	506 462	32 660 960	75 509 106	130 100 508
VLNC: midpoint	Current	35.4%	10.9%	3.0%	1.1%	−64.0%	−81.8%	−80.6%
	Former	5.3%	17.6%	12.4%	3.7%	8.1%	−41.8%	−73.4%
	Av SADs	0	65 996	86 991	54 470	709 421	2 743 448	6 979 170
	LYGs	0	930 881	1 446 923	433 375	11 093 005	42 058 134	87 770 714
VLNC: lower bound	Current	35.4%	18.2%	6.7%	2.3%	−40.0%	−59.0%	−60.3%
	Former	5.3%	17.6%	16.8%	7.0%	8.3%	−20.9%	−48.9%
	Av SADs	0	42 163	65 896	39 875	417 804	1 877 048	5 032 362
	LYGs	0	595 637	1 095 339	343 862	6 498 068	28 666 477	64 466 439
VLNC: upper bound	Current	35.4%	3.9%	0.7%	0.3%	−87.0%	−95.7%	−94.2%
	Former	5.3%	16.2%	6.8%	1.1%	−0.7%	−68.2%	−91.9%
	Av SADs	0	84 414	99 593	65 101	1 008 200	3 377 404	8 432 576
	LYGs	0	1 203 894	1 629 609	486 213	16 111 287	52 286 157	103 633 965

Prevalence

Cumulative impact^a

1964

1990

2015

2064

1965–1990

1965–2015

1965–2064

Male

Status quo

Current

56.9%

34.8%

20.0%

6.3%

—

Former

16.1%

25.3%

25.5%

20.6%

—

SADs

250 701

284 725

295 371

172 499

7 191 782

14 370 583

26 505 181

LYLs

2 956 834

3 406 323

3 892 702

1 337 864

85 813 480

178 617 477

293 682 931

VLNC: midpoint

Current

56.9%

12.1%

4.0%

1.3%

−65.3%

−80.0%

−79.5%

Former

16.1%

24.9%

13.8%

4.9%

−1.7%

−45.8%

−76.1%

Av SADs

109 115

169 830

133 762

2 143 512

5 461 853

13 922 577

LYGs

1 813 044

2 919 507

1 092 477

31 828 245

93 283 758

184 122 616

VLNC: lower bound

Current

56.9%

19.4%

8.1%

2.4%

−44.2%

−59.7%

−62.1%

Former

16.1%

26.0%

18.7%

9.0%

2.5%

−26.7%

−56.1%

Av SADs

76 664

123 647

100 269

1 323 666

3 730 136

9 989 982

LYGs

1 240 005

2 179 537

856 810

19 426 216

63 799 750

134 256 734

VLNC: upper bound

Current

56.9%

4.4%

1.0%

0.4%

−87.4%

−94.8%

−93.6%

Former

16.1%

21.5%

6.9%

1.5%

−15.3%

−72.8%

−92.6%

Av SADs

129 515

209 341

161 211

2 889 890

6 885 155

17 382 498

LYGs

2 233 913

3 454 269

1 266 465

43 941 649

117 868 590

224 382 828

Female

Status quo

Current

35.4%

30.3%

16.4%

5.8%

—

Former

5.3%

16.3%

21.3%

13.8%

—

SADs

36 062

143 063

140 210

69 488

2 466 932

6 019 333

11 874 669

LYLs

535 523

1 693 556

1 802 867

506 462

32 660 960

75 509 106

130 100 508

VLNC: midpoint

Current

35.4%

10.9%

3.0%

1.1%

−64.0%

−81.8%

−80.6%

Former

5.3%

17.6%

12.4%

3.7%

8.1%

−41.8%

−73.4%

Av SADs

65 996

86 991

54 470

709 421

2 743 448

6 979 170

LYGs

930 881

1 446 923

433 375

11 093 005

42 058 134

87 770 714

VLNC: lower bound

Current

35.4%

18.2%

6.7%

2.3%

−40.0%

−59.0%

−60.3%

Former

5.3%

17.6%

16.8%

7.0%

8.3%

−20.9%

−48.9%

Av SADs

42 163

65 896

39 875

417 804

1 877 048

5 032 362

LYGs

595 637

1 095 339

343 862

6 498 068

28 666 477

64 466 439

VLNC: upper bound

Current

35.4%

3.9%

0.7%

0.3%

−87.0%

−95.7%

−94.2%

Former

5.3%

16.2%

6.8%

1.1%

−0.7%

−68.2%

−91.9%

Av SADs

84 414

99 593

65 101

1 008 200

3 377 404

8 432 576

LYGs

1 203 894

1 629 609

486 213

16 111 287

52 286 157

103 633 965

		Prevalence				Cumulative impact^a
Male
Status quo	Current	56.9%	34.8%	20.0%	6.3%	—	—	—
	Former	16.1%	25.3%	25.5%	20.6%	—	—	—
	SADs	250 701	284 725	295 371	172 499	7 191 782	14 370 583	26 505 181
	LYLs	2 956 834	3 406 323	3 892 702	1 337 864	85 813 480	178 617 477	293 682 931
VLNC: midpoint	Current	56.9%	12.1%	4.0%	1.3%	−65.3%	−80.0%	−79.5%
	Former	16.1%	24.9%	13.8%	4.9%	−1.7%	−45.8%	−76.1%
	Av SADs	0	109 115	169 830	133 762	2 143 512	5 461 853	13 922 577
	LYGs	0	1 813 044	2 919 507	1 092 477	31 828 245	93 283 758	184 122 616
VLNC: lower bound	Current	56.9%	19.4%	8.1%	2.4%	−44.2%	−59.7%	−62.1%
	Former	16.1%	26.0%	18.7%	9.0%	2.5%	−26.7%	−56.1%
	Av SADs	0	76 664	123 647	100 269	1 323 666	3 730 136	9 989 982
	LYGs	0	1 240 005	2 179 537	856 810	19 426 216	63 799 750	134 256 734
VLNC: upper bound	Current	56.9%	4.4%	1.0%	0.4%	−87.4%	−94.8%	−93.6%
	Former	16.1%	21.5%	6.9%	1.5%	−15.3%	−72.8%	−92.6%
	Av SADs	0	129 515	209 341	161 211	2 889 890	6 885 155	17 382 498
	LYGs	0	2 233 913	3 454 269	1 266 465	43 941 649	117 868 590	224 382 828
Female
Status quo	Current	35.4%	30.3%	16.4%	5.8%	—	—	—
	Former	5.3%	16.3%	21.3%	13.8%	—	—	—
	SADs	36 062	143 063	140 210	69 488	2 466 932	6 019 333	11 874 669
	LYLs	535 523	1 693 556	1 802 867	506 462	32 660 960	75 509 106	130 100 508
VLNC: midpoint	Current	35.4%	10.9%	3.0%	1.1%	−64.0%	−81.8%	−80.6%
	Former	5.3%	17.6%	12.4%	3.7%	8.1%	−41.8%	−73.4%
	Av SADs	0	65 996	86 991	54 470	709 421	2 743 448	6 979 170
	LYGs	0	930 881	1 446 923	433 375	11 093 005	42 058 134	87 770 714
VLNC: lower bound	Current	35.4%	18.2%	6.7%	2.3%	−40.0%	−59.0%	−60.3%
	Former	5.3%	17.6%	16.8%	7.0%	8.3%	−20.9%	−48.9%
	Av SADs	0	42 163	65 896	39 875	417 804	1 877 048	5 032 362
	LYGs	0	595 637	1 095 339	343 862	6 498 068	28 666 477	64 466 439
VLNC: upper bound	Current	35.4%	3.9%	0.7%	0.3%	−87.0%	−95.7%	−94.2%
	Former	5.3%	16.2%	6.8%	1.1%	−0.7%	−68.2%	−91.9%
	Av SADs	0	84 414	99 593	65 101	1 008 200	3 377 404	8 432 576
	LYGs	0	1 203 894	1 629 609	486 213	16 111 287	52 286 157	103 633 965

Table 2.

Open in new tab

Population Impacts on Smoking Prevalence, Smoking Attributable Deaths, and Life-Years Lost in the Status Quo Scenario and Very Low Nicotine Scenario (Midpoint, Lower Bound, and Upper Bound) When Very Low Nicotine Content Cigarettes Begin in 1965

		Prevalence				Cumulative impact^a
		1964	1990	2015	2064	1965–1990	1965–2015	1965–2064
Male
Status quo	Current	56.9%	34.8%	20.0%	6.3%	—	—	—
	Former	16.1%	25.3%	25.5%	20.6%	—	—	—
	SADs	250 701	284 725	295 371	172 499	7 191 782	14 370 583	26 505 181
	LYLs	2 956 834	3 406 323	3 892 702	1 337 864	85 813 480	178 617 477	293 682 931
VLNC: midpoint	Current	56.9%	12.1%	4.0%	1.3%	−65.3%	−80.0%	−79.5%
	Former	16.1%	24.9%	13.8%	4.9%	−1.7%	−45.8%	−76.1%
	Av SADs	0	109 115	169 830	133 762	2 143 512	5 461 853	13 922 577
	LYGs	0	1 813 044	2 919 507	1 092 477	31 828 245	93 283 758	184 122 616
VLNC: lower bound	Current	56.9%	19.4%	8.1%	2.4%	−44.2%	−59.7%	−62.1%
	Former	16.1%	26.0%	18.7%	9.0%	2.5%	−26.7%	−56.1%
	Av SADs	0	76 664	123 647	100 269	1 323 666	3 730 136	9 989 982
	LYGs	0	1 240 005	2 179 537	856 810	19 426 216	63 799 750	134 256 734
VLNC: upper bound	Current	56.9%	4.4%	1.0%	0.4%	−87.4%	−94.8%	−93.6%
	Former	16.1%	21.5%	6.9%	1.5%	−15.3%	−72.8%	−92.6%
	Av SADs	0	129 515	209 341	161 211	2 889 890	6 885 155	17 382 498
	LYGs	0	2 233 913	3 454 269	1 266 465	43 941 649	117 868 590	224 382 828
Female
Status quo	Current	35.4%	30.3%	16.4%	5.8%	—	—	—
	Former	5.3%	16.3%	21.3%	13.8%	—	—	—
	SADs	36 062	143 063	140 210	69 488	2 466 932	6 019 333	11 874 669
	LYLs	535 523	1 693 556	1 802 867	506 462	32 660 960	75 509 106	130 100 508
VLNC: midpoint	Current	35.4%	10.9%	3.0%	1.1%	−64.0%	−81.8%	−80.6%
	Former	5.3%	17.6%	12.4%	3.7%	8.1%	−41.8%	−73.4%
	Av SADs	0	65 996	86 991	54 470	709 421	2 743 448	6 979 170
	LYGs	0	930 881	1 446 923	433 375	11 093 005	42 058 134	87 770 714
VLNC: lower bound	Current	35.4%	18.2%	6.7%	2.3%	−40.0%	−59.0%	−60.3%
	Former	5.3%	17.6%	16.8%	7.0%	8.3%	−20.9%	−48.9%
	Av SADs	0	42 163	65 896	39 875	417 804	1 877 048	5 032 362
	LYGs	0	595 637	1 095 339	343 862	6 498 068	28 666 477	64 466 439
VLNC: upper bound	Current	35.4%	3.9%	0.7%	0.3%	−87.0%	−95.7%	−94.2%
	Former	5.3%	16.2%	6.8%	1.1%	−0.7%	−68.2%	−91.9%
	Av SADs	0	84 414	99 593	65 101	1 008 200	3 377 404	8 432 576
	LYGs	0	1 203 894	1 629 609	486 213	16 111 287	52 286 157	103 633 965

		Prevalence				Cumulative impact^a
		1964	1990	2015	2064	1965–1990	1965–2015	1965–2064
Male
Status quo	Current	56.9%	34.8%	20.0%	6.3%	—	—	—
	Former	16.1%	25.3%	25.5%	20.6%	—	—	—
	SADs	250 701	284 725	295 371	172 499	7 191 782	14 370 583	26 505 181
	LYLs	2 956 834	3 406 323	3 892 702	1 337 864	85 813 480	178 617 477	293 682 931
VLNC: midpoint	Current	56.9%	12.1%	4.0%	1.3%	−65.3%	−80.0%	−79.5%
	Former	16.1%	24.9%	13.8%	4.9%	−1.7%	−45.8%	−76.1%
	Av SADs	0	109 115	169 830	133 762	2 143 512	5 461 853	13 922 577
	LYGs	0	1 813 044	2 919 507	1 092 477	31 828 245	93 283 758	184 122 616
VLNC: lower bound	Current	56.9%	19.4%	8.1%	2.4%	−44.2%	−59.7%	−62.1%
	Former	16.1%	26.0%	18.7%	9.0%	2.5%	−26.7%	−56.1%
	Av SADs	0	76 664	123 647	100 269	1 323 666	3 730 136	9 989 982
	LYGs	0	1 240 005	2 179 537	856 810	19 426 216	63 799 750	134 256 734
VLNC: upper bound	Current	56.9%	4.4%	1.0%	0.4%	−87.4%	−94.8%	−93.6%
	Former	16.1%	21.5%	6.9%	1.5%	−15.3%	−72.8%	−92.6%
	Av SADs	0	129 515	209 341	161 211	2 889 890	6 885 155	17 382 498
	LYGs	0	2 233 913	3 454 269	1 266 465	43 941 649	117 868 590	224 382 828
Female
Status quo	Current	35.4%	30.3%	16.4%	5.8%	—	—	—
	Former	5.3%	16.3%	21.3%	13.8%	—	—	—
	SADs	36 062	143 063	140 210	69 488	2 466 932	6 019 333	11 874 669
	LYLs	535 523	1 693 556	1 802 867	506 462	32 660 960	75 509 106	130 100 508
VLNC: midpoint	Current	35.4%	10.9%	3.0%	1.1%	−64.0%	−81.8%	−80.6%
	Former	5.3%	17.6%	12.4%	3.7%	8.1%	−41.8%	−73.4%
	Av SADs	0	65 996	86 991	54 470	709 421	2 743 448	6 979 170
	LYGs	0	930 881	1 446 923	433 375	11 093 005	42 058 134	87 770 714
VLNC: lower bound	Current	35.4%	18.2%	6.7%	2.3%	−40.0%	−59.0%	−60.3%
	Former	5.3%	17.6%	16.8%	7.0%	8.3%	−20.9%	−48.9%
	Av SADs	0	42 163	65 896	39 875	417 804	1 877 048	5 032 362
	LYGs	0	595 637	1 095 339	343 862	6 498 068	28 666 477	64 466 439
VLNC: upper bound	Current	35.4%	3.9%	0.7%	0.3%	−87.0%	−95.7%	−94.2%
	Former	5.3%	16.2%	6.8%	1.1%	−0.7%	−68.2%	−91.9%
	Av SADs	0	84 414	99 593	65 101	1 008 200	3 377 404	8 432 576
	LYGs	0	1 203 894	1 629 609	486 213	16 111 287	52 286 157	103 633 965

VLNC = very low nicotine cigarette; SADs = smoking attributable deaths; Av SADs = averted SADs; LYL = life-years lost; LYG = life-years gained.

^aCumulative impact includes (1) the reduction in current and former smoking prevalence in the Very low Nicotine Scenario relative to the initial value in the Status Quo; (2) the cumulative deaths (SADs) and life-years lost (LYLs) in the Status Quo Scenario; and (3) the cumulative averted deaths (Av SADs) and life-years gained (LYGs) are those the Very Low Nicotine Scenario subtracted from those to the Status Quo.

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