Observed Enterovirus 71, Coxsackievirus A16, and Other Etiology Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease Case Counts, Expected Cases Under Generalized Linear Models, and Incidence Rate Ratios for the Postvaccine Period 2017–2018 in Chengdu, China
| Cases . | Cases in 2017 . | . | . | Cases in 2018 . | . | . | Combined Cases, 2017–2018 . | . | . |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| . | Observed . | Averted (95% PI)b . | IRR (95% PI) . | Observed . | Averted (95% PI) . | IRR (95% PI) . | Observed . | Averted (95% PI) . | IRR (95% PI) . |
| EV71a | 4198 | 1247 (−1851 to 60 080) | 0.77 (.07–1.79) | 400 | 5664 (2186–11 059) | 0.07 (.03–.15) | 4598 | 6911 (3246–11 542) | 0.40 (.28–.59) |
| CA16a | 8465 | −4262 (−7816 to 5433) | 2.01 (.61–13.04) | 6702 | 7706 (−4766 to 47 579) | 0.47 (.12–3.46) | 15 167 | 3444 (−11 439 to 45 394) | 0.81 (.25–4.06) |
| Othera | 26 647 | −8725 (−21 529 to 19 624) | 1.49 (.58–5.21) | 41 658 | −25 574 (−36 727 to −3938) | 2.59 (1.10–8.45) | 68 304 | −34 299 (−54 132 to 3188) | 2.01 (.96–4.82) |
| Severe cases | 175 | 36 (−18 to 100) | 0.83 (.64–1.11) | 90 | 250 (170–342) | 0.26 (.21–.35) | 265 | 286 (188–396) | 0.48 (.40–.58) |
| Total | 39 310 | −11 740 (−27 519 to 20 247) | 1.43 (.66–3.33) | 48 757 | −11 804 (−33 404 to 33 675) | 1.32 (.59–3.18) | 88 069 | −23 944 (−55 494 to 35 214) | 1.37 (.71–2.70) |
| Cases . | Cases in 2017 . | . | . | Cases in 2018 . | . | . | Combined Cases, 2017–2018 . | . | . |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| . | Observed . | Averted (95% PI)b . | IRR (95% PI) . | Observed . | Averted (95% PI) . | IRR (95% PI) . | Observed . | Averted (95% PI) . | IRR (95% PI) . |
| EV71a | 4198 | 1247 (−1851 to 60 080) | 0.77 (.07–1.79) | 400 | 5664 (2186–11 059) | 0.07 (.03–.15) | 4598 | 6911 (3246–11 542) | 0.40 (.28–.59) |
| CA16a | 8465 | −4262 (−7816 to 5433) | 2.01 (.61–13.04) | 6702 | 7706 (−4766 to 47 579) | 0.47 (.12–3.46) | 15 167 | 3444 (−11 439 to 45 394) | 0.81 (.25–4.06) |
| Othera | 26 647 | −8725 (−21 529 to 19 624) | 1.49 (.58–5.21) | 41 658 | −25 574 (−36 727 to −3938) | 2.59 (1.10–8.45) | 68 304 | −34 299 (−54 132 to 3188) | 2.01 (.96–4.82) |
| Severe cases | 175 | 36 (−18 to 100) | 0.83 (.64–1.11) | 90 | 250 (170–342) | 0.26 (.21–.35) | 265 | 286 (188–396) | 0.48 (.40–.58) |
| Total | 39 310 | −11 740 (−27 519 to 20 247) | 1.43 (.66–3.33) | 48 757 | −11 804 (−33 404 to 33 675) | 1.32 (.59–3.18) | 88 069 | −23 944 (−55 494 to 35 214) | 1.37 (.71–2.70) |
Abbreviations: CA16, coxsackievirus A16; EV17, enterovirus 71; IRR, incidence rate ratio; PI, prediction interval.
aAdjusted by inverse probability of testing. See Supplementary Text 1.
bPrediction intervals calculated via 1 000 000 Monte Carlo simulation draws using fitted model parameters.
Observed Enterovirus 71, Coxsackievirus A16, and Other Etiology Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease Case Counts, Expected Cases Under Generalized Linear Models, and Incidence Rate Ratios for the Postvaccine Period 2017–2018 in Chengdu, China
| Cases . | Cases in 2017 . | . | . | Cases in 2018 . | . | . | Combined Cases, 2017–2018 . | . | . |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| . | Observed . | Averted (95% PI)b . | IRR (95% PI) . | Observed . | Averted (95% PI) . | IRR (95% PI) . | Observed . | Averted (95% PI) . | IRR (95% PI) . |
| EV71a | 4198 | 1247 (−1851 to 60 080) | 0.77 (.07–1.79) | 400 | 5664 (2186–11 059) | 0.07 (.03–.15) | 4598 | 6911 (3246–11 542) | 0.40 (.28–.59) |
| CA16a | 8465 | −4262 (−7816 to 5433) | 2.01 (.61–13.04) | 6702 | 7706 (−4766 to 47 579) | 0.47 (.12–3.46) | 15 167 | 3444 (−11 439 to 45 394) | 0.81 (.25–4.06) |
| Othera | 26 647 | −8725 (−21 529 to 19 624) | 1.49 (.58–5.21) | 41 658 | −25 574 (−36 727 to −3938) | 2.59 (1.10–8.45) | 68 304 | −34 299 (−54 132 to 3188) | 2.01 (.96–4.82) |
| Severe cases | 175 | 36 (−18 to 100) | 0.83 (.64–1.11) | 90 | 250 (170–342) | 0.26 (.21–.35) | 265 | 286 (188–396) | 0.48 (.40–.58) |
| Total | 39 310 | −11 740 (−27 519 to 20 247) | 1.43 (.66–3.33) | 48 757 | −11 804 (−33 404 to 33 675) | 1.32 (.59–3.18) | 88 069 | −23 944 (−55 494 to 35 214) | 1.37 (.71–2.70) |
| Cases . | Cases in 2017 . | . | . | Cases in 2018 . | . | . | Combined Cases, 2017–2018 . | . | . |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| . | Observed . | Averted (95% PI)b . | IRR (95% PI) . | Observed . | Averted (95% PI) . | IRR (95% PI) . | Observed . | Averted (95% PI) . | IRR (95% PI) . |
| EV71a | 4198 | 1247 (−1851 to 60 080) | 0.77 (.07–1.79) | 400 | 5664 (2186–11 059) | 0.07 (.03–.15) | 4598 | 6911 (3246–11 542) | 0.40 (.28–.59) |
| CA16a | 8465 | −4262 (−7816 to 5433) | 2.01 (.61–13.04) | 6702 | 7706 (−4766 to 47 579) | 0.47 (.12–3.46) | 15 167 | 3444 (−11 439 to 45 394) | 0.81 (.25–4.06) |
| Othera | 26 647 | −8725 (−21 529 to 19 624) | 1.49 (.58–5.21) | 41 658 | −25 574 (−36 727 to −3938) | 2.59 (1.10–8.45) | 68 304 | −34 299 (−54 132 to 3188) | 2.01 (.96–4.82) |
| Severe cases | 175 | 36 (−18 to 100) | 0.83 (.64–1.11) | 90 | 250 (170–342) | 0.26 (.21–.35) | 265 | 286 (188–396) | 0.48 (.40–.58) |
| Total | 39 310 | −11 740 (−27 519 to 20 247) | 1.43 (.66–3.33) | 48 757 | −11 804 (−33 404 to 33 675) | 1.32 (.59–3.18) | 88 069 | −23 944 (−55 494 to 35 214) | 1.37 (.71–2.70) |
Abbreviations: CA16, coxsackievirus A16; EV17, enterovirus 71; IRR, incidence rate ratio; PI, prediction interval.
aAdjusted by inverse probability of testing. See Supplementary Text 1.
bPrediction intervals calculated via 1 000 000 Monte Carlo simulation draws using fitted model parameters.
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