| Parameter . | Point Estimate . | Lower Bound . | Upper Bound . | Source . |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maximum simulation length (days) | 365 | — | — | Assumptiona |
| Days between donations | 4 | 1 | 10 | Assumptiona |
| Incidence (daily probability of infection) | 10–3 | 10–4 | 10–2 | Assumptionb |
| I1 duration (days) | 2 | 1 | 4 | [11, 12, 16, 17] |
| I2 duration (days) | 5 | 3 | 10 | [11, 12, 16, 17] |
| R1 duration (days) | 15 | 10 | 30 | [11, 12, 16–19] |
| Probability that an infected donor is asymptomatic | 0.40 | 0.10 | 0.70 | [9] |
| Probability that an infected donor sheds virus in stool | 0.50 | 0.33 | 0.66 | [10, 13, 16, 17] |
| Days of donations rejected before development of symptoms | 14 | — | — | Assumptiona |
| Days between serology tests | 60 | — | — | Assumptiona |
| Serology test sensitivity | 0.75 | 0.65 | 0.90 | [20–22] |
| Serology test specificity | 0.98 | 0.90 | 0.99 | [21, 22] |
| Days between swab tests | 14 | — | — | Assumptiona |
| Swab test sensitivity | 0.75 | 0.50 | 0.98 | [23, 24] |
| Swab test specificity | 0.95 | 0.90 | 0.99 | [24] |
| Stool test sensitivity | 0.80 | 0.50 | 0.99 | Assumptionc |
| Stool test specificity | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.99 | Assumptionc |
| Parameter . | Point Estimate . | Lower Bound . | Upper Bound . | Source . |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maximum simulation length (days) | 365 | — | — | Assumptiona |
| Days between donations | 4 | 1 | 10 | Assumptiona |
| Incidence (daily probability of infection) | 10–3 | 10–4 | 10–2 | Assumptionb |
| I1 duration (days) | 2 | 1 | 4 | [11, 12, 16, 17] |
| I2 duration (days) | 5 | 3 | 10 | [11, 12, 16, 17] |
| R1 duration (days) | 15 | 10 | 30 | [11, 12, 16–19] |
| Probability that an infected donor is asymptomatic | 0.40 | 0.10 | 0.70 | [9] |
| Probability that an infected donor sheds virus in stool | 0.50 | 0.33 | 0.66 | [10, 13, 16, 17] |
| Days of donations rejected before development of symptoms | 14 | — | — | Assumptiona |
| Days between serology tests | 60 | — | — | Assumptiona |
| Serology test sensitivity | 0.75 | 0.65 | 0.90 | [20–22] |
| Serology test specificity | 0.98 | 0.90 | 0.99 | [21, 22] |
| Days between swab tests | 14 | — | — | Assumptiona |
| Swab test sensitivity | 0.75 | 0.50 | 0.98 | [23, 24] |
| Swab test specificity | 0.95 | 0.90 | 0.99 | [24] |
| Stool test sensitivity | 0.80 | 0.50 | 0.99 | Assumptionc |
| Stool test specificity | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.99 | Assumptionc |
NOTES: See Supplemental Table 1 for a summary of the meanings of the I1, I2, R1, and R2 categories. The lower and upper bounds represent the bounds of uniform distributions used when drawing random parameter values in the sensitivity analysis.
aInformed by operations at a large stool bank [4].
bThe point estimate of 10–4 corresponds to 35 000 daily cases in a population of 350 million, approximating the US average in early April 2020.
cInformed by an assay being implemented at a large stool bank.
| Parameter . | Point Estimate . | Lower Bound . | Upper Bound . | Source . |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maximum simulation length (days) | 365 | — | — | Assumptiona |
| Days between donations | 4 | 1 | 10 | Assumptiona |
| Incidence (daily probability of infection) | 10–3 | 10–4 | 10–2 | Assumptionb |
| I1 duration (days) | 2 | 1 | 4 | [11, 12, 16, 17] |
| I2 duration (days) | 5 | 3 | 10 | [11, 12, 16, 17] |
| R1 duration (days) | 15 | 10 | 30 | [11, 12, 16–19] |
| Probability that an infected donor is asymptomatic | 0.40 | 0.10 | 0.70 | [9] |
| Probability that an infected donor sheds virus in stool | 0.50 | 0.33 | 0.66 | [10, 13, 16, 17] |
| Days of donations rejected before development of symptoms | 14 | — | — | Assumptiona |
| Days between serology tests | 60 | — | — | Assumptiona |
| Serology test sensitivity | 0.75 | 0.65 | 0.90 | [20–22] |
| Serology test specificity | 0.98 | 0.90 | 0.99 | [21, 22] |
| Days between swab tests | 14 | — | — | Assumptiona |
| Swab test sensitivity | 0.75 | 0.50 | 0.98 | [23, 24] |
| Swab test specificity | 0.95 | 0.90 | 0.99 | [24] |
| Stool test sensitivity | 0.80 | 0.50 | 0.99 | Assumptionc |
| Stool test specificity | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.99 | Assumptionc |
| Parameter . | Point Estimate . | Lower Bound . | Upper Bound . | Source . |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maximum simulation length (days) | 365 | — | — | Assumptiona |
| Days between donations | 4 | 1 | 10 | Assumptiona |
| Incidence (daily probability of infection) | 10–3 | 10–4 | 10–2 | Assumptionb |
| I1 duration (days) | 2 | 1 | 4 | [11, 12, 16, 17] |
| I2 duration (days) | 5 | 3 | 10 | [11, 12, 16, 17] |
| R1 duration (days) | 15 | 10 | 30 | [11, 12, 16–19] |
| Probability that an infected donor is asymptomatic | 0.40 | 0.10 | 0.70 | [9] |
| Probability that an infected donor sheds virus in stool | 0.50 | 0.33 | 0.66 | [10, 13, 16, 17] |
| Days of donations rejected before development of symptoms | 14 | — | — | Assumptiona |
| Days between serology tests | 60 | — | — | Assumptiona |
| Serology test sensitivity | 0.75 | 0.65 | 0.90 | [20–22] |
| Serology test specificity | 0.98 | 0.90 | 0.99 | [21, 22] |
| Days between swab tests | 14 | — | — | Assumptiona |
| Swab test sensitivity | 0.75 | 0.50 | 0.98 | [23, 24] |
| Swab test specificity | 0.95 | 0.90 | 0.99 | [24] |
| Stool test sensitivity | 0.80 | 0.50 | 0.99 | Assumptionc |
| Stool test specificity | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.99 | Assumptionc |
NOTES: See Supplemental Table 1 for a summary of the meanings of the I1, I2, R1, and R2 categories. The lower and upper bounds represent the bounds of uniform distributions used when drawing random parameter values in the sensitivity analysis.
aInformed by operations at a large stool bank [4].
bThe point estimate of 10–4 corresponds to 35 000 daily cases in a population of 350 million, approximating the US average in early April 2020.
cInformed by an assay being implemented at a large stool bank.
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