Table 1. Open in new tab Median and...

Model Scenario	Value	New Infections/100 Person Years
Baseline^a		2.87	2.76–3.06
Increasing test frequency (distribution's for each scenario reported in Supplementary Table 3)	Test every
5 d	2.63	2.32–2.75
90 d	2.57	2.34–2.78
180 d	2.80	2.50–2.92
365 d	2.98	2.64–3.07
1095 d	3.27	3.10–3.57
Reduce the proportion of MSM who have never tested for HIV (baseline 20%)	7%	2.67	2.58–2.86
0.2%	2.60	2.44–2.86
Increasing viral suppression through linkage to care and treatment (baseline 43%)	68.5%	2.19	2.03–2.47
100%	1.43	1.32–1.57
Using tests with different sensitivity for early infection (baseline 45 d)	70 d	2.89	2.83–3.12
22 d	2.68	2.53–3.02
0 d	2.84	2.64–3.17

Model Scenario

Value

New Infections/100 Person Years

Median

IQR

Baseline^a

2.87

2.76–3.06

Increasing test frequency (distribution's for each scenario reported in Supplementary Table 3)

Test every

5 d

2.63

2.32–2.75

90 d

2.57

2.34–2.78

180 d

2.80

2.50–2.92

365 d

2.98

2.64–3.07

1095 d

3.27

3.10–3.57

Reduce the proportion of MSM who have never tested for HIV (baseline 20%)

2.67

2.58–2.86

0.2%

2.60

2.44–2.86

Increasing viral suppression through linkage to care and treatment (baseline 43%)

68.5%

2.19

2.03–2.47

100%

1.43

1.32–1.57

Using tests with different sensitivity for early infection (baseline 45 d)

70 d

2.89

2.83–3.12

22 d

2.68

2.53–3.02

0 d

2.84

2.64–3.17

Model Scenario	Value	New Infections/100 Person Years
Baseline^a		2.87	2.76–3.06
Increasing test frequency (distribution's for each scenario reported in Supplementary Table 3)	Test every
5 d	2.63	2.32–2.75
90 d	2.57	2.34–2.78
180 d	2.80	2.50–2.92
365 d	2.98	2.64–3.07
1095 d	3.27	3.10–3.57
Reduce the proportion of MSM who have never tested for HIV (baseline 20%)	7%	2.67	2.58–2.86
0.2%	2.60	2.44–2.86
Increasing viral suppression through linkage to care and treatment (baseline 43%)	68.5%	2.19	2.03–2.47
100%	1.43	1.32–1.57
Using tests with different sensitivity for early infection (baseline 45 d)	70 d	2.89	2.83–3.12
22 d	2.68	2.53–3.02
0 d	2.84	2.64–3.17

Table 1.

Open in new tab

Median and Interquartile Range of Incidence Observed in 20 Simulations of 3 Years of Follow-up in a Simulated Population of 5250 MSM Under Baseline and 12 Alternative Scenarios for HIV Testing Interventions in the United States

Model Scenario	Value	New Infections/100 Person Years
Model Scenario	Value	Median	IQR
Baseline^a		2.87	2.76–3.06
Increasing test frequency (distribution's for each scenario reported in Supplementary Table 3)	Test every
	5 d	2.63	2.32–2.75
	90 d	2.57	2.34–2.78
	180 d	2.80	2.50–2.92
	365 d	2.98	2.64–3.07
	1095 d	3.27	3.10–3.57
Reduce the proportion of MSM who have never tested for HIV (baseline 20%)	7%	2.67	2.58–2.86
	0.2%	2.60	2.44–2.86
Increasing viral suppression through linkage to care and treatment (baseline 43%)	68.5%	2.19	2.03–2.47
	100%	1.43	1.32–1.57
Using tests with different sensitivity for early infection (baseline 45 d)	70 d	2.89	2.83–3.12
	22 d	2.68	2.53–3.02
	0 d	2.84	2.64–3.17

Model Scenario	Value	New Infections/100 Person Years
Model Scenario	Value	Median	IQR
Baseline^a		2.87	2.76–3.06
Increasing test frequency (distribution's for each scenario reported in Supplementary Table 3)	Test every
	5 d	2.63	2.32–2.75
	90 d	2.57	2.34–2.78
	180 d	2.80	2.50–2.92
	365 d	2.98	2.64–3.07
	1095 d	3.27	3.10–3.57
Reduce the proportion of MSM who have never tested for HIV (baseline 20%)	7%	2.67	2.58–2.86
	0.2%	2.60	2.44–2.86
Increasing viral suppression through linkage to care and treatment (baseline 43%)	68.5%	2.19	2.03–2.47
	100%	1.43	1.32–1.57
Using tests with different sensitivity for early infection (baseline 45 d)	70 d	2.89	2.83–3.12
	22 d	2.68	2.53–3.02
	0 d	2.84	2.64–3.17

Abbreviations: HIV, human immunodeficiency virus; IQR, interquartile range; MSM, men who have sex with men.

^a Baseline testing frequency is assigned based on data collected from an online survey; under this scenario, MSM test almost annually on average, but many test more (9.7% test every 90 days) and less (14.7% test once every 3 years). A complete description of the baseline testing frequency distribution and how testing was implemented is included in the Supplementary Data. Baseline values for other testing intervention parameters include 20% of MSM never testing, 43% of the population with diagnosed infection achieving viral suppression, and a test capable of detecting infection 45 days after it occurs. Data were analyzed as if the complete cohort of 4900 HIV-negative persons were observed for 3 years and contributed a total of 14 700 person-years of follow-up, thus these rates are averages over the 3-year cumulative period of the simulation.

This Feature Is Available To Subscribers Only