Calibration and discrimination of BOADICEA, BRCAPRO, and IBIS models by BRCA1- and BRCA2-mutation carrier status*
| Model . | Expected number of breast cancer cases . | Observed number of breast cancer cases . | Ratio of expected to observed cases (95% CI) . | C-statistic (95% CI) . |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woman tested negative for mutations in BRCA1 and/or BRCA2, ≥1 first- or second-degree relatives tested positive for mutations in BRCA1 or BRCA2 | ||||
| BOADICEA | 47.9 | 12 | 4.03 (2.29 to 7.09) | 0.74 (0.63 to 0.85) |
| BRCAPRO | 17.2 | 12 | 1.46 (0.83 to 2.57) | 0.74 (0.59 to 0.88) |
| IBIS | 23.8 | 12 | 2.02 (1.15 to 3.55) | 0.72 (0.59 to 0.86) |
| Woman tested negative for mutations in BRCA1 and/or BRCA2, ≥1 first- or second-degree relatives tested negative for mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 | ||||
| BOADICEA | 59.5 | 72 | 0.82 (0.65 to 1.04) | 0.65 (0.60 to 0.71) |
| BRCAPRO | 30.6 | 72 | 0.42 (0.34 to 0.53) | 0.63 (0.57 to 0.69) |
| IBIS | 60.9 | 72 | 0.84 (0.67 to 1.06) | 0.69 (0.64 to 0.75) |
| Woman tested negative for mutations in BRCA1 and/or BRCA2, no first- or second-degree relatives tested for mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 | ||||
| BOADICEA | 46.4 | 63 | 0.73 (0.57 to 0.94) | 0.53 (0.46 to 0.59) |
| BRCAPRO | 27.4 | 63 | 0.43 (0.34 to 0.55) | 0.53 (0.46 to 0.60) |
| IBIS | 46.6 | 63 | 0.74 (0.58 to 0.94) | 0.53 (0.46 to 0.60) |
| Woman not tested, ≥1 first- or second-degree relatives tested positive for mutations in BRCA1 or BRCA2 | ||||
| BOADICEA | 13.2 | 13 | 1.01 (0.59 to 1.74) | 0.58 (0.43 to 0.72) |
| BRCAPRO | 9.0 | 13 | 0.69 (0.40 to 1.20) | 0.57 (0.41 to 0.73) |
| IBIS | 13.9 | 13 | 1.07 (0.62 to 1.84) | 0.56 (0.40 to 0.73) |
| Woman not tested, ≥1 first- or second-degree relatives tested negative for mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 | ||||
| BOADICEA | 190.0 | 189 | 1.01 (0.87 to 1.16) | 0.67 (0.64 to 0.71) |
| BRCAPRO | 91.8 | 189 | 0.49 (0.42 to 0.56) | 0.63 (0.59 to 0.67) |
| IBIS | 192.3 | 189 | 1.02 (0.88 to 1.17) | 0.68 (0.65 to 0.72) |
| Woman not tested, no first- or second-degree relatives tested for mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 | ||||
| BOADICEA | 135.3 | 133 | 1.02 (0.86 to 1.21) | 0.67 (0.63 to 0.71) |
| BRCAPRO | 81.5 | 133 | 0.61 (0.52 to 0.73) | 0.62 (0.57 to 0.66) |
| IBIS | 146.8 | 133 | 1.10 (0.93 to 1.31) | 0.65 (0.60 to 0.69) |
| Model . | Expected number of breast cancer cases . | Observed number of breast cancer cases . | Ratio of expected to observed cases (95% CI) . | C-statistic (95% CI) . |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woman tested negative for mutations in BRCA1 and/or BRCA2, ≥1 first- or second-degree relatives tested positive for mutations in BRCA1 or BRCA2 | ||||
| BOADICEA | 47.9 | 12 | 4.03 (2.29 to 7.09) | 0.74 (0.63 to 0.85) |
| BRCAPRO | 17.2 | 12 | 1.46 (0.83 to 2.57) | 0.74 (0.59 to 0.88) |
| IBIS | 23.8 | 12 | 2.02 (1.15 to 3.55) | 0.72 (0.59 to 0.86) |
| Woman tested negative for mutations in BRCA1 and/or BRCA2, ≥1 first- or second-degree relatives tested negative for mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 | ||||
| BOADICEA | 59.5 | 72 | 0.82 (0.65 to 1.04) | 0.65 (0.60 to 0.71) |
| BRCAPRO | 30.6 | 72 | 0.42 (0.34 to 0.53) | 0.63 (0.57 to 0.69) |
| IBIS | 60.9 | 72 | 0.84 (0.67 to 1.06) | 0.69 (0.64 to 0.75) |
| Woman tested negative for mutations in BRCA1 and/or BRCA2, no first- or second-degree relatives tested for mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 | ||||
| BOADICEA | 46.4 | 63 | 0.73 (0.57 to 0.94) | 0.53 (0.46 to 0.59) |
| BRCAPRO | 27.4 | 63 | 0.43 (0.34 to 0.55) | 0.53 (0.46 to 0.60) |
| IBIS | 46.6 | 63 | 0.74 (0.58 to 0.94) | 0.53 (0.46 to 0.60) |
| Woman not tested, ≥1 first- or second-degree relatives tested positive for mutations in BRCA1 or BRCA2 | ||||
| BOADICEA | 13.2 | 13 | 1.01 (0.59 to 1.74) | 0.58 (0.43 to 0.72) |
| BRCAPRO | 9.0 | 13 | 0.69 (0.40 to 1.20) | 0.57 (0.41 to 0.73) |
| IBIS | 13.9 | 13 | 1.07 (0.62 to 1.84) | 0.56 (0.40 to 0.73) |
| Woman not tested, ≥1 first- or second-degree relatives tested negative for mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 | ||||
| BOADICEA | 190.0 | 189 | 1.01 (0.87 to 1.16) | 0.67 (0.64 to 0.71) |
| BRCAPRO | 91.8 | 189 | 0.49 (0.42 to 0.56) | 0.63 (0.59 to 0.67) |
| IBIS | 192.3 | 189 | 1.02 (0.88 to 1.17) | 0.68 (0.65 to 0.72) |
| Woman not tested, no first- or second-degree relatives tested for mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 | ||||
| BOADICEA | 135.3 | 133 | 1.02 (0.86 to 1.21) | 0.67 (0.63 to 0.71) |
| BRCAPRO | 81.5 | 133 | 0.61 (0.52 to 0.73) | 0.62 (0.57 to 0.66) |
| IBIS | 146.8 | 133 | 1.10 (0.93 to 1.31) | 0.65 (0.60 to 0.69) |
BOADICEA = Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm model; CI = confidence interval; IBIS = International Breast Cancer Intervention Study model.
Calibration and discrimination of BOADICEA, BRCAPRO, and IBIS models by BRCA1- and BRCA2-mutation carrier status*
| Model . | Expected number of breast cancer cases . | Observed number of breast cancer cases . | Ratio of expected to observed cases (95% CI) . | C-statistic (95% CI) . |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woman tested negative for mutations in BRCA1 and/or BRCA2, ≥1 first- or second-degree relatives tested positive for mutations in BRCA1 or BRCA2 | ||||
| BOADICEA | 47.9 | 12 | 4.03 (2.29 to 7.09) | 0.74 (0.63 to 0.85) |
| BRCAPRO | 17.2 | 12 | 1.46 (0.83 to 2.57) | 0.74 (0.59 to 0.88) |
| IBIS | 23.8 | 12 | 2.02 (1.15 to 3.55) | 0.72 (0.59 to 0.86) |
| Woman tested negative for mutations in BRCA1 and/or BRCA2, ≥1 first- or second-degree relatives tested negative for mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 | ||||
| BOADICEA | 59.5 | 72 | 0.82 (0.65 to 1.04) | 0.65 (0.60 to 0.71) |
| BRCAPRO | 30.6 | 72 | 0.42 (0.34 to 0.53) | 0.63 (0.57 to 0.69) |
| IBIS | 60.9 | 72 | 0.84 (0.67 to 1.06) | 0.69 (0.64 to 0.75) |
| Woman tested negative for mutations in BRCA1 and/or BRCA2, no first- or second-degree relatives tested for mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 | ||||
| BOADICEA | 46.4 | 63 | 0.73 (0.57 to 0.94) | 0.53 (0.46 to 0.59) |
| BRCAPRO | 27.4 | 63 | 0.43 (0.34 to 0.55) | 0.53 (0.46 to 0.60) |
| IBIS | 46.6 | 63 | 0.74 (0.58 to 0.94) | 0.53 (0.46 to 0.60) |
| Woman not tested, ≥1 first- or second-degree relatives tested positive for mutations in BRCA1 or BRCA2 | ||||
| BOADICEA | 13.2 | 13 | 1.01 (0.59 to 1.74) | 0.58 (0.43 to 0.72) |
| BRCAPRO | 9.0 | 13 | 0.69 (0.40 to 1.20) | 0.57 (0.41 to 0.73) |
| IBIS | 13.9 | 13 | 1.07 (0.62 to 1.84) | 0.56 (0.40 to 0.73) |
| Woman not tested, ≥1 first- or second-degree relatives tested negative for mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 | ||||
| BOADICEA | 190.0 | 189 | 1.01 (0.87 to 1.16) | 0.67 (0.64 to 0.71) |
| BRCAPRO | 91.8 | 189 | 0.49 (0.42 to 0.56) | 0.63 (0.59 to 0.67) |
| IBIS | 192.3 | 189 | 1.02 (0.88 to 1.17) | 0.68 (0.65 to 0.72) |
| Woman not tested, no first- or second-degree relatives tested for mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 | ||||
| BOADICEA | 135.3 | 133 | 1.02 (0.86 to 1.21) | 0.67 (0.63 to 0.71) |
| BRCAPRO | 81.5 | 133 | 0.61 (0.52 to 0.73) | 0.62 (0.57 to 0.66) |
| IBIS | 146.8 | 133 | 1.10 (0.93 to 1.31) | 0.65 (0.60 to 0.69) |
| Model . | Expected number of breast cancer cases . | Observed number of breast cancer cases . | Ratio of expected to observed cases (95% CI) . | C-statistic (95% CI) . |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woman tested negative for mutations in BRCA1 and/or BRCA2, ≥1 first- or second-degree relatives tested positive for mutations in BRCA1 or BRCA2 | ||||
| BOADICEA | 47.9 | 12 | 4.03 (2.29 to 7.09) | 0.74 (0.63 to 0.85) |
| BRCAPRO | 17.2 | 12 | 1.46 (0.83 to 2.57) | 0.74 (0.59 to 0.88) |
| IBIS | 23.8 | 12 | 2.02 (1.15 to 3.55) | 0.72 (0.59 to 0.86) |
| Woman tested negative for mutations in BRCA1 and/or BRCA2, ≥1 first- or second-degree relatives tested negative for mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 | ||||
| BOADICEA | 59.5 | 72 | 0.82 (0.65 to 1.04) | 0.65 (0.60 to 0.71) |
| BRCAPRO | 30.6 | 72 | 0.42 (0.34 to 0.53) | 0.63 (0.57 to 0.69) |
| IBIS | 60.9 | 72 | 0.84 (0.67 to 1.06) | 0.69 (0.64 to 0.75) |
| Woman tested negative for mutations in BRCA1 and/or BRCA2, no first- or second-degree relatives tested for mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 | ||||
| BOADICEA | 46.4 | 63 | 0.73 (0.57 to 0.94) | 0.53 (0.46 to 0.59) |
| BRCAPRO | 27.4 | 63 | 0.43 (0.34 to 0.55) | 0.53 (0.46 to 0.60) |
| IBIS | 46.6 | 63 | 0.74 (0.58 to 0.94) | 0.53 (0.46 to 0.60) |
| Woman not tested, ≥1 first- or second-degree relatives tested positive for mutations in BRCA1 or BRCA2 | ||||
| BOADICEA | 13.2 | 13 | 1.01 (0.59 to 1.74) | 0.58 (0.43 to 0.72) |
| BRCAPRO | 9.0 | 13 | 0.69 (0.40 to 1.20) | 0.57 (0.41 to 0.73) |
| IBIS | 13.9 | 13 | 1.07 (0.62 to 1.84) | 0.56 (0.40 to 0.73) |
| Woman not tested, ≥1 first- or second-degree relatives tested negative for mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 | ||||
| BOADICEA | 190.0 | 189 | 1.01 (0.87 to 1.16) | 0.67 (0.64 to 0.71) |
| BRCAPRO | 91.8 | 189 | 0.49 (0.42 to 0.56) | 0.63 (0.59 to 0.67) |
| IBIS | 192.3 | 189 | 1.02 (0.88 to 1.17) | 0.68 (0.65 to 0.72) |
| Woman not tested, no first- or second-degree relatives tested for mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 | ||||
| BOADICEA | 135.3 | 133 | 1.02 (0.86 to 1.21) | 0.67 (0.63 to 0.71) |
| BRCAPRO | 81.5 | 133 | 0.61 (0.52 to 0.73) | 0.62 (0.57 to 0.66) |
| IBIS | 146.8 | 133 | 1.10 (0.93 to 1.31) | 0.65 (0.60 to 0.69) |
BOADICEA = Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm model; CI = confidence interval; IBIS = International Breast Cancer Intervention Study model.
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