Table 3 Open in new tab Robustness check...

Dep Var: population growth (1925–1939) & (1939–X)	I	II	III	IV	V	VI	VII	VIII
Post-1939 X	−0.317***	−0.292***	−0.174***	−0.178***	−0.216***	−0.205***	−0.216***	−0.223***
French Occ Zone	(0.029)	(0.026)	(0.028)	(0.045)	(0.058)	(0.065)	(0.072)	(0.083)
French Occ Zone (Y = 1)	0.064	0.083	0.032	0.009	0.007	0.001	−0.012	−0.082
	(0.067)	(0.068)	(0.041)	(0.046)	(0.057)	(0.061)	(0.071)	(0.077)
Post-1939 (Y = 1)	0.363***	0.405***	0.353***	0.463***	0.523***	0.603***	0.743***	0.749***
	(0.025)	(0.024)	(0.023)	(0.035)	(0.047)	(0.051)	(0.061)	(0.068)
War-time destruction 1945	−0.997***	−0.839***	−0.378***	−0.405***	−0.471***	−0.577***	−0.697***	−0.673***
	(0.083)	(0.070)	(0.067)	(0.095)	(0.127)	(0.140)	(0.168)	(0.181)
Distance to GDR	0.046	0.039	0.001	0.070	0.086	0.094	0.104	0.103
	(0.034)	(0.031)	(0.042)	(0.069)	(0.095)	(0.104)	(0.122)	(0.133)
Distance to CSSR	0.006	0.011	0.047	0.034	0.082	0.086	0.112	0.129
	(0.028)	(0.025)	(0.031)	(0.050)	(0.069)	(0.076)	(0.089)	(0.099)
Population in t	−0.001**	−0.001**	−0.001***	−0.001***	−0.002***	−0.003***	−0.003***	−0.003***
	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)
Market potential (ln)	0.212	0.236*	0.274*	0.531**	0.818**	0.903**	1.068**	1.091**
	(0.128)	(0.127)	(0.160)	(0.260)	(0.390)	(0.427)	(0.480)	(0.507)
University (Y = 1)	0.032	0.034	0.067***	0.112***	0.177***	0.189***	0.205***	0.230***
	(0.036)	(0.031)	(0.023)	(0.035)	(0.056)	(0.061)	(0.073)	(0.085)
Employment share in manufacturing	−0.047	0.021	0.195**	0.262**	0.263	0.244	0.166	0.141
(0.078)	(0.072)	(0.080)	(0.132)	(0.192)	(0.209)	(0.238)	(0.255)
Nazi support	0.366**	0.356**	0.271*	0.469*	0.444	0.357	0.235	0.128
	(0.151)	(0.145)	(0.155)	(0.241)	(0.310)	(0.325)	(0.373)	(0.401)
Population share of men aged between 14 and 45 years old	1.413**	1.472**	1.512**	2.045**	1.699	1.463	0.930	0.604
(0.632)	(0.583)	(0.641)	(0.951)	(1.222)	(1.332)	(1.553)	(1.769)
Controls Table 2	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
N	458	458	458	458	458	458	458	458
R²	0.749	0.780	0.754	0.712	0.656	0.675	0.703	0.679

Dep Var: population growth (1925–1939) & (1939–X)

III

VII

VIII

1939–1946

1939–1950

1939–1961

1939–1970

1939–1980

1939–1990

1939–2000

1939–2010

Post-1939 X

−0.317***

−0.292***

−0.174***

−0.178***

−0.216***

−0.205***

−0.216***

−0.223***

French Occ Zone

(0.029)

(0.026)

(0.028)

(0.045)

(0.058)

(0.065)

(0.072)

(0.083)

French Occ Zone (Y = 1)

0.064

0.083

0.032

0.009

0.007

0.001

−0.012

−0.082

(0.067)

(0.068)

(0.041)

(0.046)

(0.057)

(0.061)

(0.071)

(0.077)

Post-1939 (Y = 1)

0.363***

0.405***

0.353***

0.463***

0.523***

0.603***

0.743***

0.749***

(0.025)

(0.024)

(0.023)

(0.035)

(0.047)

(0.051)

(0.061)

(0.068)

War-time destruction 1945

−0.997***

−0.839***

−0.378***

−0.405***

−0.471***

−0.577***

−0.697***

−0.673***

(0.083)

(0.070)

(0.067)

(0.095)

(0.127)

(0.140)

(0.168)

(0.181)

Distance to GDR

0.046

0.039

0.001

0.070

0.086

0.094

0.104

0.103

(0.034)

(0.031)

(0.042)

(0.069)

(0.095)

(0.104)

(0.122)

(0.133)

Distance to CSSR

0.006

0.011

0.047

0.034

0.082

0.086

0.112

0.129

(0.028)

(0.025)

(0.031)

(0.050)

(0.069)

(0.076)

(0.089)

(0.099)

Population in t

−0.001**

−0.001***

−0.002***

−0.003***

(0.000)

(0.001)

Market potential (ln)

0.212

0.236*

0.274*

0.531**

0.818**

0.903**

1.068**

1.091**

(0.128)

(0.127)

(0.160)

(0.260)

(0.390)

(0.427)

(0.480)

(0.507)

University (Y = 1)

0.032

0.034

0.067***

0.112***

0.177***

0.189***

0.205***

0.230***

(0.036)

(0.031)

(0.023)

(0.035)

(0.056)

(0.061)

(0.073)

(0.085)

Employment share in manufacturing

−0.047

0.021

0.195**

0.262**

0.263

0.244

0.166

0.141

(0.078)

(0.072)

(0.080)

(0.132)

(0.192)

(0.209)

(0.238)

(0.255)

Nazi support

0.366**

0.356**

0.271*

0.469*

0.444

0.357

0.235

0.128

(0.151)

(0.145)

(0.155)

(0.241)

(0.310)

(0.325)

(0.373)

(0.401)

Population share of men aged between 14 and 45 years old

1.413**

1.472**

1.512**

2.045**

1.699

1.463

0.930

0.604

(0.632)

(0.583)

(0.641)

(0.951)

(1.222)

(1.332)

(1.553)

(1.769)

Controls Table 2

458

R²

0.749

0.780

0.754

0.712

0.656

0.675

0.703

0.679

Dep Var: population growth (1925–1939) & (1939–X)	I	II	III	IV	V	VI	VII	VIII
Post-1939 X	−0.317***	−0.292***	−0.174***	−0.178***	−0.216***	−0.205***	−0.216***	−0.223***
French Occ Zone	(0.029)	(0.026)	(0.028)	(0.045)	(0.058)	(0.065)	(0.072)	(0.083)
French Occ Zone (Y = 1)	0.064	0.083	0.032	0.009	0.007	0.001	−0.012	−0.082
	(0.067)	(0.068)	(0.041)	(0.046)	(0.057)	(0.061)	(0.071)	(0.077)
Post-1939 (Y = 1)	0.363***	0.405***	0.353***	0.463***	0.523***	0.603***	0.743***	0.749***
	(0.025)	(0.024)	(0.023)	(0.035)	(0.047)	(0.051)	(0.061)	(0.068)
War-time destruction 1945	−0.997***	−0.839***	−0.378***	−0.405***	−0.471***	−0.577***	−0.697***	−0.673***
	(0.083)	(0.070)	(0.067)	(0.095)	(0.127)	(0.140)	(0.168)	(0.181)
Distance to GDR	0.046	0.039	0.001	0.070	0.086	0.094	0.104	0.103
	(0.034)	(0.031)	(0.042)	(0.069)	(0.095)	(0.104)	(0.122)	(0.133)
Distance to CSSR	0.006	0.011	0.047	0.034	0.082	0.086	0.112	0.129
	(0.028)	(0.025)	(0.031)	(0.050)	(0.069)	(0.076)	(0.089)	(0.099)
Population in t	−0.001**	−0.001**	−0.001***	−0.001***	−0.002***	−0.003***	−0.003***	−0.003***
	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)
Market potential (ln)	0.212	0.236*	0.274*	0.531**	0.818**	0.903**	1.068**	1.091**
	(0.128)	(0.127)	(0.160)	(0.260)	(0.390)	(0.427)	(0.480)	(0.507)
University (Y = 1)	0.032	0.034	0.067***	0.112***	0.177***	0.189***	0.205***	0.230***
	(0.036)	(0.031)	(0.023)	(0.035)	(0.056)	(0.061)	(0.073)	(0.085)
Employment share in manufacturing	−0.047	0.021	0.195**	0.262**	0.263	0.244	0.166	0.141
(0.078)	(0.072)	(0.080)	(0.132)	(0.192)	(0.209)	(0.238)	(0.255)
Nazi support	0.366**	0.356**	0.271*	0.469*	0.444	0.357	0.235	0.128
	(0.151)	(0.145)	(0.155)	(0.241)	(0.310)	(0.325)	(0.373)	(0.401)
Population share of men aged between 14 and 45 years old	1.413**	1.472**	1.512**	2.045**	1.699	1.463	0.930	0.604
(0.632)	(0.583)	(0.641)	(0.951)	(1.222)	(1.332)	(1.553)	(1.769)
Controls Table 2	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
N	458	458	458	458	458	458	458	458
R²	0.749	0.780	0.754	0.712	0.656	0.675	0.703	0.679

Table 3

Open in new tab

Robustness check I: extended models with further controls for regional conditions

Dep Var: population growth (1925–1939) & (1939–X)	I	II	III	IV	V	VI	VII	VIII
Dep Var: population growth (1925–1939) & (1939–X)	1939–1946	1939–1950	1939–1961	1939–1970	1939–1980	1939–1990	1939–2000	1939–2010
Post-1939 X	−0.317***	−0.292***	−0.174***	−0.178***	−0.216***	−0.205***	−0.216***	−0.223***
French Occ Zone	(0.029)	(0.026)	(0.028)	(0.045)	(0.058)	(0.065)	(0.072)	(0.083)
French Occ Zone (Y = 1)	0.064	0.083	0.032	0.009	0.007	0.001	−0.012	−0.082
	(0.067)	(0.068)	(0.041)	(0.046)	(0.057)	(0.061)	(0.071)	(0.077)
Post-1939 (Y = 1)	0.363***	0.405***	0.353***	0.463***	0.523***	0.603***	0.743***	0.749***
	(0.025)	(0.024)	(0.023)	(0.035)	(0.047)	(0.051)	(0.061)	(0.068)
War-time destruction 1945	−0.997***	−0.839***	−0.378***	−0.405***	−0.471***	−0.577***	−0.697***	−0.673***
	(0.083)	(0.070)	(0.067)	(0.095)	(0.127)	(0.140)	(0.168)	(0.181)
Distance to GDR	0.046	0.039	0.001	0.070	0.086	0.094	0.104	0.103
	(0.034)	(0.031)	(0.042)	(0.069)	(0.095)	(0.104)	(0.122)	(0.133)
Distance to CSSR	0.006	0.011	0.047	0.034	0.082	0.086	0.112	0.129
	(0.028)	(0.025)	(0.031)	(0.050)	(0.069)	(0.076)	(0.089)	(0.099)
Population in t	−0.001**	−0.001**	−0.001***	−0.001***	−0.002***	−0.003***	−0.003***	−0.003***
	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)
Market potential (ln)	0.212	0.236*	0.274*	0.531**	0.818**	0.903**	1.068**	1.091**
	(0.128)	(0.127)	(0.160)	(0.260)	(0.390)	(0.427)	(0.480)	(0.507)
University (Y = 1)	0.032	0.034	0.067***	0.112***	0.177***	0.189***	0.205***	0.230***
	(0.036)	(0.031)	(0.023)	(0.035)	(0.056)	(0.061)	(0.073)	(0.085)
Employment share in manufacturing	−0.047	0.021	0.195**	0.262**	0.263	0.244	0.166	0.141
Employment share in manufacturing	(0.078)	(0.072)	(0.080)	(0.132)	(0.192)	(0.209)	(0.238)	(0.255)
Nazi support	0.366**	0.356**	0.271*	0.469*	0.444	0.357	0.235	0.128
	(0.151)	(0.145)	(0.155)	(0.241)	(0.310)	(0.325)	(0.373)	(0.401)
Population share of men aged between 14 and 45 years old	1.413**	1.472**	1.512**	2.045**	1.699	1.463	0.930	0.604
Population share of men aged between 14 and 45 years old	(0.632)	(0.583)	(0.641)	(0.951)	(1.222)	(1.332)	(1.553)	(1.769)
Controls Table 2	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
N	458	458	458	458	458	458	458	458
R²	0.749	0.780	0.754	0.712	0.656	0.675	0.703	0.679

Dep Var: population growth (1925–1939) & (1939–X)	I	II	III	IV	V	VI	VII	VIII
Dep Var: population growth (1925–1939) & (1939–X)	1939–1946	1939–1950	1939–1961	1939–1970	1939–1980	1939–1990	1939–2000	1939–2010
Post-1939 X	−0.317***	−0.292***	−0.174***	−0.178***	−0.216***	−0.205***	−0.216***	−0.223***
French Occ Zone	(0.029)	(0.026)	(0.028)	(0.045)	(0.058)	(0.065)	(0.072)	(0.083)
French Occ Zone (Y = 1)	0.064	0.083	0.032	0.009	0.007	0.001	−0.012	−0.082
	(0.067)	(0.068)	(0.041)	(0.046)	(0.057)	(0.061)	(0.071)	(0.077)
Post-1939 (Y = 1)	0.363***	0.405***	0.353***	0.463***	0.523***	0.603***	0.743***	0.749***
	(0.025)	(0.024)	(0.023)	(0.035)	(0.047)	(0.051)	(0.061)	(0.068)
War-time destruction 1945	−0.997***	−0.839***	−0.378***	−0.405***	−0.471***	−0.577***	−0.697***	−0.673***
	(0.083)	(0.070)	(0.067)	(0.095)	(0.127)	(0.140)	(0.168)	(0.181)
Distance to GDR	0.046	0.039	0.001	0.070	0.086	0.094	0.104	0.103
	(0.034)	(0.031)	(0.042)	(0.069)	(0.095)	(0.104)	(0.122)	(0.133)
Distance to CSSR	0.006	0.011	0.047	0.034	0.082	0.086	0.112	0.129
	(0.028)	(0.025)	(0.031)	(0.050)	(0.069)	(0.076)	(0.089)	(0.099)
Population in t	−0.001**	−0.001**	−0.001***	−0.001***	−0.002***	−0.003***	−0.003***	−0.003***
	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.000)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)
Market potential (ln)	0.212	0.236*	0.274*	0.531**	0.818**	0.903**	1.068**	1.091**
	(0.128)	(0.127)	(0.160)	(0.260)	(0.390)	(0.427)	(0.480)	(0.507)
University (Y = 1)	0.032	0.034	0.067***	0.112***	0.177***	0.189***	0.205***	0.230***
	(0.036)	(0.031)	(0.023)	(0.035)	(0.056)	(0.061)	(0.073)	(0.085)
Employment share in manufacturing	−0.047	0.021	0.195**	0.262**	0.263	0.244	0.166	0.141
Employment share in manufacturing	(0.078)	(0.072)	(0.080)	(0.132)	(0.192)	(0.209)	(0.238)	(0.255)
Nazi support	0.366**	0.356**	0.271*	0.469*	0.444	0.357	0.235	0.128
	(0.151)	(0.145)	(0.155)	(0.241)	(0.310)	(0.325)	(0.373)	(0.401)
Population share of men aged between 14 and 45 years old	1.413**	1.472**	1.512**	2.045**	1.699	1.463	0.930	0.604
Population share of men aged between 14 and 45 years old	(0.632)	(0.583)	(0.641)	(0.951)	(1.222)	(1.332)	(1.553)	(1.769)
Controls Table 2	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
N	458	458	458	458	458	458	458	458
R²	0.749	0.780	0.754	0.712	0.656	0.675	0.703	0.679

Notes: Clustered SE (planning region * year).

***

p < 0.01,

p < 0.05,

p < 0.1.

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