... productivity information frictions fundamentals and beliefs search and matching business cycles E24 E32 E37 Does an increase in job creation reflect an improvement in labour productivity or merely a change in beliefs about the future? An increase in job creation is often attributed to improving...

... for a substantial portion of the fluctuations in asset prices and top wealth shares over the 20th century. Inequality Tail index Business cycles Recent empirical studies have documented important fluctuations in top wealth inequality over time. ¹ Volatile stock market returns may account...

.... business cycles expectations output trend productivity slowdown survey data uncertainty Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence JEL codes: C32, E32 The measurement of trend output suffers from two pervasive problems: separating permanent output movements from short-lived fluctuations in output...

... to match the U.S. macro data, demand shocks turn out to be the main driving forces of business cycles. Excess capacity Demand Business cycles Rational inattention This paper develops a theory of chronic excess capacity and studies the role of demand shocks in driving business cycles. Three stylized...

... from household surveys. The role subjective beliefs play in aggregate fluctuations is quantified in a business cycle model with goods and labour market frictions. Consistent with the survey evidence, an increase in pessimism generates upward biases in unemployment and inflation forecasts and lowers...

... distribution is the nonparametric aggregate labour supply curve. Locally, the curve exhibits large short-run elasticities above 3, consistent with business cycle evidence. For larger upward shifts, arc elasticities shrink towards 0.5, consistent with quasi-experimental evidence from tax holidays. Existing...

... income, both as the economy recovers from the COVID recession and in the long run. COVID business cycles self-employment and informality unemployment and labor force participation information and communications technologies (ICT) Inter-American Development Bank 10.13039/100004429 In 2020, the COVID...

... by either limited contract enforcement or asymmetric information and agency problems in generating fluctuations over business cycles, nonetheless overlook the role of leasing. In our study, we explicitly introduce a firm’s lease versus buy decision into the model and study the mitigation effects associated...

... structure of the model. Financial intermediation Capital accumulation Banking crises Macroeconomic shocks Business cycles Managing recoveries E21 E32 F44 G21 G28 Financial frictions affect the propagation of economic shocks and are an essential factor for the understanding of short-run...

... that existing solutions of the unemployment volatility puzzle are at odds with the procylicality of the opportunity cost of employment, the cyclicality of wages, and the volatility of risk-free rates. We propose a model of business cycles that is immune to these critiques by incorporating two key features...

...Sebastian Di Tella; Robert Hall We propose a simple flexible-price model of business cycles driven by spikes in risk premiums. The premise of our model is that businesses face significant uninsurable idiosyncratic risk, and demand a risk premium as compensation. Idiosyncratic risk rises during...

... in all, supply shocks are thus dampened at the same time that demand shocks are amplified, helping match the observed disconnect between business cycles and TFP. ⁵ As previously mentioned, our baseline model assumes, in effect, an infinite adjustment cost for investment. If we let this cost...

... Business cycles E24 E32 J63 The labor market is in a perpetual state of flux. Large flows of unemployed workers find new jobs, while large flows of employed workers lose them ( Blanchard and Diamond, 1990 ). Many firms grow through job creation, while many others shrink through job destruction ( Davis...

..., these restrictions imply that independent disturbances to expectations about future technology are a major driver of business cycles. Recoverability Non-fundamentalness Expectations Business cycles This definition coincides with Rozanov’s original definition when it is applied to all the disturbances in a given...

.... Uncertainty Volatility Business cycles E32 G13 C32 This article aims to estimate the magnitude of the effects of aggregate uncertainty shocks on economic activity. Uncertainty about the economy varies substantially over time, countercyclically, and often driven by policy choices. A growing literature has...

...Clemens Noelke; Yu-Han Chen; Theresa L Osypuk; Dolores Acevedo-Garcia We conducted separate analyses for the most recent 10 years covering the Great Recession (i.e., all conceptions between March 2006 and March 2016). While the National Bureau of Economic Research’s Business Cycle Committee dates...

... increases in credit access impact the business cycle. The main quantitative result is that credit expansions and contractions have contributed to moderately deeper and more protracted recessions over the last 40 years. As more individuals obtained credit from 1977 to 2010, cyclical credit fluctuations...

... ]. Extended models with two or more business cycle indicators were not estimated due to the intercorrelation between the two we used. A continuous time variable was included in the model to take into account the natural decrease in injury rates due to improvements in industrial practices and technology...

... public goods have no value, it becomes larger as the elasticity of substitution increases, and it completely fills the unemployment gap if extra public goods are as valuable as extra private goods. Public expenditure Business cycles Stabilization Unemployment Multiplier Sufficient statistics...

... standards. Using qualitative evidence to analyse the behaviours of borrowers represented by property developers and lenders represented by banks over the course of the business cycle, this paper assesses the relevance of Minsky’s arguments. The findings show that Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis...