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Ricardo J Caballero, Emmanuel Farhi, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Global Imbalances and Policy Wars at the Zero Lower Bound, The Review of Economic Studies, Volume 88, Issue 6, November 2021, Pages 2570–2621, https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdab015
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Abstract
This article explores the consequences of extremely low real interest rates in a world with integrated but heterogeneous capital markets, nominal rigidities, and an effective lower bound [a zero lower bound (ZLB) for simplicity]. We establish four main results: (1) At the ZLB, creditor countries export their recession abroad, which we illustrate with a new Metzler diagram in quantities; (2) Beggar-thy-neighbour currency and trade wars provide stimulus to the undertaking country at the expense of other countries; (3) (Safe) public debt issuances and increases in government spending anywhere are expansionary everywhere; and (4) When there is a scarcity of safe assets, net issuers of these assets import the recession from abroad.
