... model with demography time to extinction critical vaccination coverage critical community size phase transition homogeneous mixing bovine herpes virus dormant infection herpes reactivation renewal point demography infective agent host population growth endemic infectious disease outbreak...

... likelihood of stochastic process optional variation process ML inference Akaike’s information criterion Bayesian information criterion epidemiological data likelihood ratio test model selection nested model EM algorithm identifiability imputation Markov chain Monte Carlo MCMC infectious disease...

...The basic reproduction number (or ratio) R₀ is arguably the most important quantity in infectious disease epidemiology. It is among the quantities most urgently estimated for infectious diseases in outbreak situations, and its value provides insight when designing control interventions...

... free network super spreader exponential random graphs network of acquaintances backward branching process forward branching process STD on network scale free distribution two type branching process mean field moment closure pair approximation infectious disease contact duration consistency...

... unit infectious disease maximum likelihood estimation Markov chain Monte Carlo method hospital infections disease control disease prevention bacterial infections hospital patients As already explained in Section 4.6, the treatment of hospital patients suffering from bacterial infections...

...Chapters 5, 13 and 14 presented methods for making inference about infectious diseases from available data. This is of course one of the main motivations for modeling: learning about important features, such as R₀, the initial growth rate, potential outbreak sizes and what effect different control...

... core group infectious disease infectivity susceptibility dependence We start with an example. Assume that the latency period and the infectious period of all individuals are the same, but that their infectivities during the infectious period may differ. With reference to the situation and notation...

... construction order statistics central limit theorem final size partial vaccination critical vaccination coverage duration of an outbreak herd immunity mixing uniform mixing infectious disease stochastic epidemic model general epidemic Reed–Frost epidemic homogeneous community In this chapter we...

... size in structured populations probability of extinction separable mixing core group proportionate mixing infectious disease disease outbreaks reproduction number growth rate separable mixing epidemic outbreak This chapter is devoted to the initial real-time growth rate r...

...This chapter elaborates on the special case of age structure. Especially in the context of infectious diseases among humans, “age” is often used to characterize individuals. Partly this reflects our system of public health administration (and, perhaps, our preoccupation with age). There is, however...

... immigration death process Kostizin model aggregation of parasites Anderson May approximation negative binomial distribution regulation by macroparasites variance to mean ratio microparasites infection infectious disease parasite load reproduction number parasite host larvae macroparasites As we...

... infectious disease disease transmission epidemic microparasites closed population infected host In general, populations of hosts show demographic turnover: old individuals disappear by death and new individuals appear by birth. Such a demographic process has its characteristic time scale (for humans...

... Markov property state space p state population state measurable measure probability measure infectious disease disease transmission individual states i-states infectivity infectious output The basic idea of dynamic structured population models is to distinguish individuals from one another...

... product traveling wave solution wind borne propagules Perron root Allee effect percolation theory infectious disease propagation speed population models asymptotic speed As an example of a situation where spatially structured models are relevant, think of a fungal pathogen affecting...

... interval intrinsic growth rate serial interval infectious disease reproduction number disease transmission intrinsic growth rate outbreak epidemic Up to now we derived, occasionally and non-systematically, formulas expressing reproduction numbers in terms of observable/measurable quantities...