
Contents
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The Four Scenarios Redux The Four Scenarios Redux
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Lingering Status Quo Lingering Status Quo
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Superpower Struggle Superpower Struggle
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New Cold War New Cold War
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Reshaped World Order Reshaped World Order
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How Does Russia’s War Affect the Scenarios? How Does Russia’s War Affect the Scenarios?
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Statecraft as Prudential Realpolitik: From Tail-Risk Robustness via Resilience to Legitimacy Statecraft as Prudential Realpolitik: From Tail-Risk Robustness via Resilience to Legitimacy
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Robustness in Policy: Against Wishful Thinking Robustness in Policy: Against Wishful Thinking
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Resilience: In International Connectivity and at Home Resilience: In International Connectivity and at Home
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From Respect to Legitimacy From Respect to Legitimacy
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Values: Concerns about PRC Authoritarianism Values: Concerns about PRC Authoritarianism
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Legitimacy at Home and Abroad Legitimacy at Home and Abroad
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On to Part IV On to Part IV
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10 Wishful Thinking: Policy Robustness, Resilience, and Legitimacy
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Published:November 2022
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Abstract
This chapter looks into the major implications of a regional hegemon or a global hegemon when thinking about strategy and institutions in a contested Order-System. It considers four geopolitical-economic scenarios of constitutional democracies and the Communist Party of China being affected by Russia's war on Ukraine. Even if the war spread in Ukraine, it was unlikely that the war would have affected China's capacity to act as a superpower since the situation would only change if Vladimir Putin was replaced by a more liberal and Western-friendly regime. The chapter explains how the effective use of power needs a well-judged combination of resolve and restraint. It elaborates on the robustness, resilience, and legitimacy of international relations.
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