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Michael Christian Lehmann, Ending civil wars through fraudulent elections, Oxford Economic Papers, Volume 76, Issue 1, January 2024, Pages 250–266, https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpad002
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Abstract
Previous research finds a positive association between electoral fraud and post-election protests, violence, and civil conflict. This article contends that the effect of electoral fraud on peace can be heterogeneous. I investigate elections after civil wars that stalemated. My contribution is to present a theory and suggestive evidence that, in this context, electoral fraud by unpopular incumbents can be peace-promoting. An important policy implication is that international efforts to prevent electoral fraud (e.g. electoral observers), in this specific setting, may increase the odds that a civil war continues.