Skip to Main Content
LAWPRJ High Impact 960x160
Collection

High-Impact Research from Law, Probability & Risk

  • Share

Explore a collection of the most read and most cited articles making an impact in Law, Probability & Risk published within the past two years. This collection will be continuously updated with the journal's leading articles so be sure to revisit periodically to see what is being read and cited.

Also discover the articles being discussed the most on digital media by exploring this Altmetric report pulling the most discussed articles from the past year.

Most cited

From specific-source feature-based to common-source score-based likelihood-ratio systems: ranking the stars
Peter Vergeer
Law, Probability and Risk, Volume 22, Issue 1, 2023, mgad005, https://doi.org/10.1093/lpr/mgad005
This article studies expected performance and practical feasibility of the most commonly used classes of source-level likelihood-ratio (LR) systems when applied to a trace–reference comparison problem. The article compares performance of these classes of LR systems (used to update prior odds) to each other and to the use ...
Misuse of statistical method results in highly biased interpretation of forensic evidence in
Michael Rosenblum and others
Law, Probability and Risk, Volume 23, Issue 1, 2024, mgad010, https://doi.org/10.1093/lpr/mgad010
This section addresses claims made by Guyll et al. (2023 , p. 3) about the positive predictive value (PPV), defined as ‘the proportion of identification decisions that are correct’. They use the PPV to quantify the ‘probative value’ of a firearms examiner’s decision. Negative predictive value (NPV) is defined ...
Combining reproducibility and repeatability studies with applications in forensic science
Hina Arora and others
Law, Probability and Risk, Volume 22, Issue 1, 2023, mgad007, https://doi.org/10.1093/lpr/mgad007
Studying the repeatability and reproducibility of decisions made during forensic examinations is important in order to better understand variation in decisions and establish confidence in procedures. For disciplines that rely on comparisons made by trained examiners such as for latent prints, handwriting, and cartridge ...
Reference populations for examining possible racial profiling
Douglas N VanDerwerken and others
Law, Probability and Risk, Volume 22, Issue 1, 2023, mgad008, https://doi.org/10.1093/lpr/mgad008
Two recent Massachusetts Supreme Court cases, Commonwealth v. Long (2020) and Commonwealth v. Robinson-Van Rader (2023) , have made it easier for defendants to successfully challenge police stops allegedly based on race or another protected class. Such challenges often consist, at least in part, of demonstrating that the ...
Bayesian reasoning and the prior in court: not legally normative but unavoidable
Ronald Meester and Lonneke Stevens
Law, Probability and Risk, Volume 23, Issue 1, 2024, mgae001, https://doi.org/10.1093/lpr/mgae001
We introduce Bayesian reasoning in court not as a toolbox for doing computations, but as a way to assess evidence in a case. We argue that Bayesian reasoning comes naturally, even when the findings in a case cannot readily be translated into numbers. Not having numbers at one’s disposal is not an obstacle to use Bayesian ...
Bi-Gaussianized calibration of likelihood ratios
Geoffrey Stewart Morrison
Law, Probability and Risk, Volume 23, Issue 1, 2024, mgae004, https://doi.org/10.1093/lpr/mgae004
For a perfectly calibrated forensic evaluation system, the likelihood ratio of the likelihood ratio is the likelihood ratio. Conversion of uncalibrated log-likelihood ratios (scores) to calibrated log-likelihood ratios is often performed using logistic regression. The results, however, may be far from perfectly calibrated. ...

Most read

Research Article
Methodological problems in every black-box study of forensic firearm comparisons
Maria Cuellar and others
Law, Probability and Risk, Volume 23, Issue 1, 2024, mgae015, https://doi.org/10.1093/lpr/mgae015
Reviews conducted by the National Academy of Sciences (2009) and the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (2016) concluded that the field of forensic firearm comparisons has not been demonstrated to be scientifically valid. Scientific validity requires adequately designed studies of firearm examiner ...
Research Article
Bayesian reasoning and the prior in court: not legally normative but unavoidable
Ronald Meester and Lonneke Stevens
Law, Probability and Risk, Volume 23, Issue 1, 2024, mgae001, https://doi.org/10.1093/lpr/mgae001
We introduce Bayesian reasoning in court not as a toolbox for doing computations, but as a way to assess evidence in a case. We argue that Bayesian reasoning comes naturally, even when the findings in a case cannot readily be translated into numbers. Not having numbers at one’s disposal is not an obstacle to use Bayesian ...
Research Article
On stochastic modelling of actuarial compensation for loss of future earnings in Turkey
Şule Şahin and others
Law, Probability and Risk, Volume 22, Issue 1, 2023, mgad009, https://doi.org/10.1093/lpr/mgad009
This article presents an actuarial perspective to estimate the economic loss for compensations resulting from a wrongful act. The main aim of this study is to propose a stochastic approach for modelling discount rates and survival probabilities which are used to calculate the present value of the future loss of earnings. ...
Research Article
Chain event graphs for assessing activity-level propositions in forensic science in relation to drug traces on banknotes
Gail Robertson and others
Law, Probability and Risk, Volume 23, Issue 1, 2024, mgae013, https://doi.org/10.1093/lpr/mgae013
Graphical models can be used to compare support given by evidence to propositions put forward by competing parties during court proceedings. Such models can also be used to evaluate support for activity-level propositions, that is, propositions referring to the nature of activities associated with evidence and how this ...
Research Article
The principle of total evidence reprised
Franco Taroni and others
Law, Probability and Risk, Volume 23, Issue 1, 2024, mgae011, https://doi.org/10.1093/lpr/mgae011
The Principle of Total Evidence, postulated by Carnap in 1947, implies that to achieve the best assignation of a probability, all available information should be considered, subject to cost. For the evaluation of evidence, it is important that the best assignation of probability be made. The benefits of such an assignation ...
Research Article
Misuse of statistical method results in highly biased interpretation of forensic evidence in
Michael Rosenblum and others
Law, Probability and Risk, Volume 23, Issue 1, 2024, mgad010, https://doi.org/10.1093/lpr/mgad010
This section addresses claims made by Guyll et al. (2023 , p. 3) about the positive predictive value (PPV), defined as ‘the proportion of identification decisions that are correct’. They use the PPV to quantify the ‘probative value’ of a firearms examiner’s decision. Negative predictive value (NPV) is defined ...
Research Article
Combining reproducibility and repeatability studies with applications in forensic science
Hina Arora and others
Law, Probability and Risk, Volume 22, Issue 1, 2023, mgad007, https://doi.org/10.1093/lpr/mgad007
Studying the repeatability and reproducibility of decisions made during forensic examinations is important in order to better understand variation in decisions and establish confidence in procedures. For disciplines that rely on comparisons made by trained examiners such as for latent prints, handwriting, and cartridge ...
Research Article
How the work being done on statistical fingerprint models provides the basis for a much broader and greater impact affecting many areas within the criminal justice system
David Stoney and Paul Stoney
Law, Probability and Risk, Volume 23, Issue 1, 2024, mgae008, https://doi.org/10.1093/lpr/mgae008
In the process of developing and improving statistical models to address flaws in the examination and interpretation of highly selective fingermarks, the groundwork is being laid for a much broader and greater impact. This impact will arise from the use of these same improved statistical methods to exploit information from ...
Research Article
Decisionalizing the problem of reliance on expert and machine evidence
Alex Biedermann and Timothy Lau
Law, Probability and Risk, Volume 23, Issue 1, 2024, mgae007, https://doi.org/10.1093/lpr/mgae007
This article analyzes and discusses the problem of reliance on expert and machine evidence, including Artificial Intelligence output, from a decision-analytic point of view. Machine evidence is broadly understood here as the result of computational approaches, with or without a human-in-the-loop, applied to the analysis ...
Research Article
A probabilistic graphical model for assessing equivocal evidence
Franco Taroni and others
Law, Probability and Risk, Volume 23, Issue 1, 2024, mgae003, https://doi.org/10.1093/lpr/mgae003
The Bayes’ theorem can be generalized to account for uncertainty on reported evidence. This has an impact on the value of the evidence, making the computation of the Bayes factor more demanding, as discussed by Taroni, Garbolino, and Bozza (2020) . Probabilistic graphical models can however represent a suitable tool to ...
Close
This Feature Is Available To Subscribers Only

Sign In or Create an Account

Close

This PDF is available to Subscribers Only

View Article Abstract & Purchase Options

For full access to this pdf, sign in to an existing account, or purchase an annual subscription.

Close