Conclusion to Part V

Kolenda, Christopher D.

doi:10.5810/kentucky/9780813152769.003.0028

Chapter

Conclusion to Part V

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https://doi.org/10.5810/kentucky/9780813152769.003.0028

Pages

192–194

Published:

October 2021

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Why did this toxic combination arise of an insurgency with tangible support and a host nation government unable to win the battle of legitimacy in contested and insurgent-controlled areas? Existing explanations focus on the lack of Phase IV planning, inadequate troop presence to maintain security, and poor politico-military integration.¹ These problems contributed to a more significant cause: a failure to develop a strategy resilient to the competitive, interactive, and often violent nature of politics in post-conflict societies. America deployed a well-trained and sophisticated military force, highly experienced diplomats, and extensive civilian expertise. By 2006, US forces were losing to a poorly trained, equipped, and resourced insurgency, as Iraqi elites manipulated American officials, thus creating a downward spiral into more violence and damaged legitimacy.

The Bush administration failed to consider war termination in its policy and strategy. They fixated on the military campaign, implicitly assumed a decisive military victory, ignored warnings about probable post-Saddam risks, and thus heightened the likelihood of quagmire. The administration failed to develop a strategy that integrated all elements of national power toward a favorable and durable outcome and that was resilient enough to adapt to emerging risks. The military campaign plan was sufficient to defeat a poorly trained and incompetently led Iraqi Army, but too rigid to adapt to the dynamic aftermath. Despite ample warnings from the intelligence community and a wide array of experts about the risks of post-regime instability, the Bush administration clung to the optimistic assumptions underpinning the campaign plan.² Wolfowitz’s testimony on February 27, just weeks before the invasion, dismissing the need for stabilization forces suggests the Bush administration never seriously contemplated the risks.³ The Department of Defense and the Bush administration fell victim to what Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman called the planning fallacy—the tendency to underestimate the costs and overestimate the benefits of future actions. They were not alone. If State had grave concerns about the prospects for success, Powell could have recommended an interagency war game to Bush. As a former chairman of the Joint Chiefs, he was aware of the utility of this tool to expose problems. The failure to understand the difference between strategy and plans had significant consequences.

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