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François Felber, Establishment of a tetraploid cytotype in a diploid population: Effect of relative fitness of the cytotypes, Journal of Evolutionary Biology, Volume 4, Issue 2, 1 March 1991, Pages 195–207, https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1420-9101.1991.4020195.x
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Abstract
The conditions for the establishment of a tetraploid in a diploid population were investigated by means of a deterministic model, on the assumption that the diploid cytotype produces some 2n gametes.
If the fertility and viability of both cytotypes were the same and the initial population was diploid, then a mixed population would occur if the production of 2n gametes was below 17.16%. The tetraploid excluded the diploid above this limit. By modifying the fertility and the viability of the polyploid this threshold varied, dropping to 10% when one of the two parameters was twice that of the diploid, and falling to as low as 6% if both fertility and viability were double that of the diploid.
The conditions for the establishment of a polyploid are therefore quite restrictive under the assumptions of this model. In nature, such processes would probably allow the spread of the polyploid only if the immigration of polyploids considerably enhanced the frequency of tetraploids, or if genetical or environmental changes, or chance processes in small populations caused a substantial increase in the frequency of 2n gametes produced by the diploid.