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Alison Lawlor Russell, Kevin McGravey, Digital oil: chips, artificial intelligence and US national security, International Affairs, Volume 101, Issue 3, May 2025, Pages 1087–1101, https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiaf009
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Abstract
Rising global demand for semiconductor chips and artificial intelligence (AI), combined with their development by private-sector companies and their expansive public and private use in a wide range of applications, poses a unique set of challenges and opportunities for governments, economies and global security.
The United States, in common with other countries, needs a strategic blueprint for ensuring access to chips and influencing the development of AI, both of which are critical to its future economic growth and national security.
This policy paper argues that an analogy with oil—instead of the more common analogy with nuclear development—illuminates strategic concerns for AI in the areas of technological production, natural resources, public–private partnerships, regulations for cooperation and management, national security and geopolitical stability.
The oil analogy provides examples of government policies that have shaped the trade, development and use of oil, within the context of the US legal and regulatory environment.
To responsibly manage the growth in demand for AI and chips while preserving geopolitical stability, the US and other governments should:
Create domestic policies and regulations for chips and AI in order to ensure stability and reliability within the market economy;
Form international regulatory bodies to oversee access to and trade in raw materials for semiconductor chips, in order to mitigate geopolitical competition over these limited resources;
Develop policies and norms for the ethical use of AI, consistent with international law and human rights agreements; and
Construct policies and practices regarding environmental issues associated with the manufacturing of semiconductor chips and use of AI.
