Introduction Introduction
Transformationalists Transformationalists
Skeptics Skeptics
Key Questions in the AI Debate Key Questions in the AI Debate
- Is the Technological Development of a Nonbiological Intelligence Possible and Can We Know if We Have Achieved It? Is the Technological Development of a Nonbiological Intelligence Possible and Can We Know if We Have Achieved It?
- What Are Appropriate Time Frames for Making Technological Predictions? What Are Appropriate Time Frames for Making Technological Predictions?
- Is a World of Exponential Growth More Likely Than a World of Steady-State Growth or Stagnation? Is a World of Exponential Growth More Likely Than a World of Steady-State Growth or Stagnation?
Conclusion Conclusion
Acknowledgments Acknowledgments
References References
- Notes

Article

Making AI Inevitable: Historical Perspective and the Problems of Predicting Long-Term Technological Change

https://doi.org/10.1093/9780198945215.003.0077

Published:

20 March 2025

Abstract

This article demonstrates the extent to which prominent debates about the future of AI are best understood as subjective, philosophical disagreements over the history and future of technological change rather than as objective, material disagreements over the technologies themselves. It focuses on the deep disagreements over whether artificial general intelligence (AGI) will prove transformative for human society—a question that is analytically prior to that of whether this transformative effect will help or harm humanity. The article begins by distinguishing two fundamental camps in this debate. The first of these can be identified as “transformationalists,” who argue that continued AI development will inevitably have a profound effect on society. Opposed to them are “skeptics,” a more eclectic group united by their disbelief that AI can or will live up to such high expectations. Each camp admits further “strong” and “weak” variants depending on their tolerance for epistemic risk. These stylized contrasts help identify a set of fundamental questions that shape the camps’ respective interpretations of the future of AI. Three questions in particular are focused on: the possibility of nonbiological intelligence, the appropriate time frame of technological predictions, and the assumed trajectory of technological development. In highlighting these specific points of nontechnical disagreement, this article demonstrates the wide range of different arguments used to justify either the transformationalist or skeptical position. At the same time, it highlights the strong argumentative burden of the transformationalist position, the way that belief in this position creates competitive pressures to achieve first-mover advantage, and the need to widen the concept of “expertise” in debates surrounding the future development of AI.

Keywords: technology, artificial intelligence, artificial general intelligence, technological change, historical perspective, epistemology, philosophy of history, philosophy of science, singularity, superintelligence

Subject

Social Sciences Arts and Humanities

Section: Governance

Section editors:

Collection: Oxford Intersections

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Making AI Inevitable: Historical Perspective and the Problems of Predicting Long-Term Technological Change

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