
George C. Edwards (ed.)
et al.
Published:
19 May 2011
Online ISBN:
9780191728389
Print ISBN:
9780199545636
Contents
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The Role of Accuracy in Preelection Estimates The Role of Accuracy in Preelection Estimates
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Polls, Reporting Styles, and the Need for Accuracy Polls, Reporting Styles, and the Need for Accuracy
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The Concept of Accuracy and How to Measure It The Concept of Accuracy and How to Measure It
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The Historical Trends in Accuracy and its Measurement The Historical Trends in Accuracy and its Measurement
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The Literary Digest and the 1936 Election: The Advent of Modern Polling The Literary Digest and the 1936 Election: The Advent of Modern Polling
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Preelection Polls and the 1948 Election Preelection Polls and the 1948 Election
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The 1996 Election and Clinton's Lead over Dole The 1996 Election and Clinton's Lead over Dole
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Preelection Polls and Exit Polls in the 2000 Presidential Election Preelection Polls and Exit Polls in the 2000 Presidential Election
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Preelection Polls and Exit Polls in the 2004 Presidential Election Preelection Polls and Exit Polls in the 2004 Presidential Election
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Preelection Polls in the Primaries and the General Election in 2008 Preelection Polls in the Primaries and the General Election in 2008
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Summarizing Polling Accuracy in Recent Elections Summarizing Polling Accuracy in Recent Elections
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Alternatives to Preelection Polling: Their Accuracy and How They Could Affect the Future of Polling Alternatives to Preelection Polling: Their Accuracy and How They Could Affect the Future of Polling
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Conclusion Conclusion
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References References
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Chapter
20 The Accuracy of Opinion Polling and its Relation to its Future
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Michael Traugott
Michael Traugott
Center for Political Studies, University of Michigan
Find on
Michael Traugott is Professor of Communication Studies and Research Professor in the Center for Political Studies at the Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan.
Pages
316–331
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Published:02 September 2011
Cite
Traugott, Michael, ' The Accuracy of Opinion Polling and its Relation to its Future', in George C. Edwards, Lawrence R. Jacobs, and Robert Y. Shapiro (eds), The Oxford Handbook of American Public Opinion and the Media (2011; online edn, Oxford Academic, 19 May 2011), https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199545636.003.0020, accessed 9 May 2025.
Abstract
This chapter discusses the concept of accuracy and how to measure it. It presents a chronology of the accuracy of the presidential pre-election polls during the 2008 election, and then studies the various ways to estimate election outcomes that do not include polls conducted by the analyst. The chapter also examines the impact of new technologies and evolving voting procedures on the accuracy of polls.
Series
Oxford Handbooks
Collection:
Oxford Handbooks Online
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