
Contents
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Setting up the Theory Setting up the Theory
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Secessionism as an External Threat Secessionism as an External Threat
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Secession and the Balance of Power Secession and the Balance of Power
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The Commitment Problem as a cause for Conflict Escalation The Commitment Problem as a cause for Conflict Escalation
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Independent Variable I: Probability of Future War Independent Variable I: Probability of Future War
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Future War and Depth of Identity Divisions. Future War and Depth of Identity Divisions.
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Future War and Existing States: Regional War Proneness. Future War and Existing States: Regional War Proneness.
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Independent Variable II: Third-Party Support Independent Variable II: Third-Party Support
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Secessionists as a Fifth Column. Secessionists as a Fifth Column.
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Levels of Third-Party Support. Levels of Third-Party Support.
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External Security and State Strategy against Separatists External Security and State Strategy against Separatists
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1 An External Security Theory of Secessionist Conflict
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Published:November 2017
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Abstract
This chapter focuses on the states' decision-making at the point at which an ethno-nationalist movement has made a demand or declaration of independence or significant autonomy. It aims at deconstructing the state's calculus at that precise moment. To build the theory, the chapter relies on three assumptions: first, it assumes that actors are strategic and forward looking; second, it assumes that states are more powerful than substate actors; and third, it treats states as “unitary” actors, a long-standing assumption in international relations. The chapter then shifts to elaborate on why secession represents a significant shift in the balance of power. It discusses how the creation of a new state leaves the host state more vulnerable to the ethnic group, generally speaking. The chapter then outlines the states' two related concerns about the external security implications of any secessionist movement.
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