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The Conference on Research in Income and Wealth (CRIW) last met to discuss “new developments” in productivity analysis in November 1975 at a meeting organized by John W. Kendrick and Beatrice N. Vaccara. Discussions of productivity were dominated at that time by the methodological debate between Edward Denison, on the one hand, and Dale Jorgenson and Zvi Griliches, on the other. While many of the positions of Jorgenson and Griliches have been widely accepted—notably through the 1983 launch of the multifactor productivity program by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)—other issues have surfaced. The proceedings of the 1975 conference make no mention of the productivity slowdown that commenced in the early 1970s, but this slowdown became the central concern of productivity analysts over the next two decades.
The focus has shifted again in recent years as the prolonged economic expansion has offered up another conundrum: Why has measured productivity failed to keep up with the boom in a period notable for major innovations in information technology? The New Economy explanation of the recent boom assigns central importance to unmeasured gains in productivity arising from index number issues and from the failure to measure improvements in product quality. The potential importance of these issues is underscored by the recent revisions of government productivity statistics.
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