
Contents
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11.1 Introduction 11.1 Introduction
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11.2 Previous Research 11.2 Previous Research
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11.3 The Impact of Changes in the Age Structure, DI Insured Status, and Health 11.3 The Impact of Changes in the Age Structure, DI Insured Status, and Health
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11.3.1 Changes in the Age Distribution 11.3.1 Changes in the Age Distribution
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11.3.2 Changes in DI Eligibility 11.3.2 Changes in DI Eligibility
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11.3.3 Changes in Health Status 11.3.3 Changes in Health Status
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11.4 Economic Conditions 11.4 Economic Conditions
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11.5 Program Changes 11.5 Program Changes
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11.5.1 Changes in Replacement Rates 11.5.1 Changes in Replacement Rates
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11.5.2 Changes in Medical Eligibility Criteria 11.5.2 Changes in Medical Eligibility Criteria
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11.6 Discussion 11.6 Discussion
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11.7 Will the DI Rolls Continue to Grow? 11.7 Will the DI Rolls Continue to Grow?
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11.7.1 Reaching the New Equilibrium 11.7.1 Reaching the New Equilibrium
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11.7.2 Changes in the Age Structure 11.7.2 Changes in the Age Structure
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11.7.3 The Increase in the Normal Retirement Age 11.7.3 The Increase in the Normal Retirement Age
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11.7.4 The Rising Value of Medicare 11.7.4 The Rising Value of Medicare
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Appendix Appendix
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Data Sources Data Sources
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References References
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11 Why are the Disability Rolls Skyrocketing? The Contribution of Population Characteristics, Economic Conditions, and Program Generosity
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Published:March 2009
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Abstract
This chapter, which addresses three categories of explanation—the characteristics of individuals insured by the Disability Insurance (DI) program, the state of the economy, and the generosity of program benefits—argues that the growth in DI rolls is likely to continue and perhaps accelerate going forward. The data indicate that the recessions of 1991 and 2001 can explain 24 percent of the growth in DI receipt among men and 12 percent of the growth among women. Changes in health during the past two decades have slowed rather than added to the growth of the DI rolls. DI awards for certain conditions were much more affected by the liberalized medical eligibility criteria than others. The aging of the Baby Boom population will result in significant increases in DI receipt during the next fifteen years. The incentive to apply for DI will increase with the rising value of health insurance through Medicare.
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