
Contents
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Introduction Introduction
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Methods and Results Methods and Results
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1) Current and Potential Distribution of Ash Trees and Emerald Ash Borer 1) Current and Potential Distribution of Ash Trees and Emerald Ash Borer
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2) Risk of the Spread of Emerald Ash Borer 2) Risk of the Spread of Emerald Ash Borer
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3) Spatially Explicit Estimation of Ash Tree Value 3) Spatially Explicit Estimation of Ash Tree Value
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4) Cost and Effectiveness of Different Prevention and Control Strategies 4) Cost and Effectiveness of Different Prevention and Control Strategies
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5) Optimizing Resources by Linking Distribution and Spread Models with Estimates of Potential Damages 5) Optimizing Resources by Linking Distribution and Spread Models with Estimates of Potential Damages
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Conclusions Conclusions
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Policy Implications Policy Implications
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Acknowledgments Acknowledgments
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Notes Notes
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Literature Cited Literature Cited
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Nine Evaluating the Economic Costs and Benefits of Slowing the Spread of Emerald Ash Borer
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Published:November 2014
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Abstract
Emerald ash borers were first discovered in Detroit in 2002 and have since taken only a few years to destroy most of the ash trees within the Detroit Metropolitan area and spread throughout many of the Great Lakes States. We integrate economic and ecological models to retroactively assess the economic benefits of different policy options during the initial spread of emerald ash borer. For the spread of the emerald ash borer, we use a model that includes natural and human dispersal, primarily by roads, campgrounds and population centers. The economic models consist of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which quantifies the damages that occur to a regional economy during a shock like an invasion, and a real options model, which determines the optimum timing for investments in different policy options. Policy options in our scenarios included changing the number and intensity of eradication efforts, both at the wave front of the invasion and at the long-distance outbreaks. Our economic analyses suggest that the annual welfare loss in Michigan and Ohio will exceed $110 million and that stopping the spread of the emerald ash borer when it was first detected would have saved more than $1 billion.
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