Skip to Main Content

Quitting Certainties: A Bayesian Framework Modeling Degrees of Belief

Online ISBN:
9780191748134
Print ISBN:
9780199658305
Publisher:
Oxford University Press
Book

Quitting Certainties: A Bayesian Framework Modeling Degrees of Belief

Michael G. Titelbaum
Michael G. Titelbaum
University of Wisconsin-Madison
Find on
Published online:
23 May 2013
Published in print:
20 December 2012
Online ISBN:
9780191748134
Print ISBN:
9780199658305
Publisher:
Oxford University Press

Abstract

Subjective Bayesianism is one of the most popular tools of contemporary epistemology, using probability mathematics to provide comprehensive rational constraints both for an agent’s degrees of belief at a given time and for the evolution of those degrees of belief over time. Yet Conditionalization (the traditional Bayesian updating rule) has trouble modeling cases involving memory loss and context-sensitivity, because these cases involve the loss of certainties over time. This book proposes a new Bayesian modeling framework, the Certainty-Loss Framework (or CLF), that yields correct verdicts about rational requirements in such cases. The framework resolves a variety of outstanding problems for Bayesianism, including the Sleeping Beauty Problem concerning self-locating beliefs and difficulties squaring Bayesianism with Everettian interpretations of quantum mechanics. CLF is developed within a carefully-articulated formal modeling methodology that focuses our attention on the boundaries of our models’ applicability and the precise relation between formal systems and norms. The result is a framework that merges the advantages of formal modeling with the complexities of everyday epistemic life.

Contents
Close
This Feature Is Available To Subscribers Only

Sign In or Create an Account

Close

This PDF is available to Subscribers Only

View Article Abstract & Purchase Options

For full access to this pdf, sign in to an existing account, or purchase an annual subscription.

Close