
Contents
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1. The Notion of Secession of the Center 1. The Notion of Secession of the Center
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2. Center Secession in Pakistan 2. Center Secession in Pakistan
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3. Agent-Based Modeling as a Strategy for Studying Rare Events 3. Agent-Based Modeling as a Strategy for Studying Rare Events
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4. The Anatomy of Virtual Pakistan 4. The Anatomy of Virtual Pakistan
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5. Identity Repertoires in Pakistan 5. Identity Repertoires in Pakistan
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6. The Distribution of Identity Repertoires in Virtual Pakistan 6. The Distribution of Identity Repertoires in Virtual Pakistan
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7. Distribution of Power in Virtual Pakistan 7. Distribution of Power in Virtual Pakistan
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8. Secessionism and Center Secession in VirPak 8. Secessionism and Center Secession in VirPak
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9. Punjabi Secessionism in VirPak 9. Punjabi Secessionism in VirPak
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Can Punjabi Secessionism Exist? Can Punjabi Secessionism Exist?
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Patterns in the Relative Strength and Prevalence of Punjabi Secessionism Within the Distribution of Futures Patterns in the Relative Strength and Prevalence of Punjabi Secessionism Within the Distribution of Futures
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Can Center Secession Occur? Can Center Secession Occur?
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12 Deploying Constructivism for the Analysis of Rare Events: How Possible Is the Emergence of “Punjabistan”?
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Published:October 2012
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Abstract
The purpose of the present volume is to demonstrate that a rigorous conceptual framework can enable constructivist insights to be deployed for the solution of a variety of theoretical and empirical problems. This chapter offers a use case in which the framework set forth by the editors, if not the exact details of its entire vocabulary, is employed to solve a difficult empirical and policy-relevant problem. The general problem involved is to evaluate a future for Pakistan involving the secession of its Punjabi core-a future whose probability experts have had difficulty assessing. Since secession is itself a rare event, and secession of the center an even rarer event, data relevant to addressing this problem must be generated by a computer simulation model designed and implemented in conformance with available social theories, including constructivist theory, along with information about Pakistani society relevant to the categories of those theories. The thrust of this chapter is to demonstrate that by integrating constructivist approaches to political contestation, via the framework offered in this volume, with specific knowledge of a complex and important case-the future of Punjabi dominated Pakistan—an agent-based modeling approach can be used to analyze the conditions under which secession of the center can take place and to estimate its likelihood.
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