
Contents
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I Introduction I Introduction
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II Variation in Democratic Reform Efforts across the Post-Soviet Area II Variation in Democratic Reform Efforts across the Post-Soviet Area
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III Conditions for Democratic Reforms, including EU Democracy Promotion III Conditions for Democratic Reforms, including EU Democracy Promotion
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IV Explaining Democracy Reform Progress: Combining Sets of Explanations IV Explaining Democracy Reform Progress: Combining Sets of Explanations
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A The impact of EU-specific conditions A The impact of EU-specific conditions
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B The impact of domestic factors B The impact of domestic factors
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C International external actors C International external actors
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V Operationalization and Methods V Operationalization and Methods
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A Calibration of conditions and outcome A Calibration of conditions and outcome
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1 Democratic reform progress 1 Democratic reform progress
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2 EU-specific conditions 2 EU-specific conditions
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3 Domestic conditions 3 Domestic conditions
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4 International external actors 4 International external actors
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VI Analysis and Results VI Analysis and Results
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VII Conclusion VII Conclusion
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14 Democratic Reform and Backsliding in the Post-Soviet Area: What Role for the EU?
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Published:June 2024
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Abstract
This chapter aims to explain why some countries in the post-Soviet area show more steady progress in the implementation of democratic reforms and alignment with the European Union (EU)’s political acquis than others. Since the end of the Cold War, most states in post-Soviet Europe and Eurasia have embarked on some form of democratic transition. Yet, the scope and content of the reforms varies significantly across states. Particularly puzzling are developments since the mid 2000s, when democracy scores across the region began to slow down or decline, such as in Ukraine, Armenia, or the Russian Federation. A wide array of explanations has already been advanced in the literature. However, current explanations are based mainly on single case studies, which makes it difficult to account for the broader variation of democratic reform across the countries in the post-Soviet area. This chapter identifies the main determinants of democratic reform and backsliding through a qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) across thirteen countries in the post-Soviet area between 2006 and 2018. It shows that only a combination of EU-specific, domestic, and external factors accounts for the variation in the pace of democratic reforms in post-Soviet countries. While the EU is found to be a sufficient factor in democratic reform, autonomous social capital is identified as a necessary condition. Moreover, EU assistance can have positive but also negative effects on democracy. And dependence on the Russian Federation, considered an external autocracy promoter, can curtail but also fuel democratic reform progress.
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