
Contents
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Nuclear Command, Control, and Communications Nuclear Command, Control, and Communications
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NC3 Vulnerability NC3 Vulnerability
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Targeting NC3 Targeting NC3
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How Cyber Deception Undermines Nuclear Deterrence How Cyber Deception Undermines Nuclear Deterrence
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Nuclear Deterrence and Credible Communication Nuclear Deterrence and Credible Communication
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The Cyber Commitment Problem The Cyber Commitment Problem
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Dangerous Complements Dangerous Complements
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Dyadic Variation in Instability Dyadic Variation in Instability
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Policy Implications Policy Implications
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7 Cyber Deception versus Nuclear Deterrence
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Published:March 2024
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Abstract
A basic strategic challenge in cyberspace is the tension between deterrence and deception. This chapter explores an extreme manifestation of this tension in the combination of nuclear weapons and cyber operations, which have converse informational characteristics. The former can be brandished for influence, while the latter must be hidden for effectiveness. Actors who hold cyber operations in reserve in case deterrence fails, therefore, may make deterrence failure more likely. The chapter highlights some historical evidence that nuclear command and control systems may be vulnerable to attack and that the United States has targeted them in the past. It also explains why we expect the dangers to vary with the relative nuclear force structures and cyber capabilities of the actors in a crisis interaction, which makes asymmetric dyads like the United States and North Korea particularly worrisome. This is just one way in which integrated deterrence can produce risk as well as synergy.
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