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Abstract
During the last half century, the interest by government policymakers and commercial forecasters in business-cycle :fluctuations has been on a stable trend. The interest by the economics profession, at least in the empirical regularities of business cycles, has been much more cyclical. The empirical research on business cycles peaked most recently in the last decade. This recent research basically follows two tracks. One track—which is the one Englund, Vredin, and Warne follow in their companion part—is inspired by the advances in the methodology of time-series econometrics. The other track-which is the one we follow in this part—is inspired by the research programme laid out in the seminal paper by Lucas (1977). Lucas emphasized the idea of ‘business cycle regularities ‘, a set of common facts in the form of correlation coefficients and standard deviations, as well as the complementary idea that ‘business cycles are all alike ‘ across countries and time. Since his paper, a large body of research has developed trying to measure and model such regularities empirically. The vast majority of the existing studies, however, deal with US data from the post-war period.
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