
Contents
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9.1 Probability and Rational Belief 9.1 Probability and Rational Belief
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9.2 The Idea of Degrees of Rationality 9.2 The Idea of Degrees of Rationality
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9.3 Availability and the Problem of Rational Delay 9.3 Availability and the Problem of Rational Delay
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9.4 Moore’s Paradox Revisited 9.4 Moore’s Paradox Revisited
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9.5 A Formal Statement of the Theory 9.5 A Formal Statement of the Theory
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9.6 The Evaluating Angel 9.6 The Evaluating Angel
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9 The Idea of Rational Probability
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Published:June 2023
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Abstract
Chapter 9 turns to explaining what is here being referred to as the “rational probability function” for each case. According to the account that is being developed here, the degree of irrationality of the belief-system that the thinker has in each case is in effect determined by the belief-system’s distance from the rational probability function for the case. But are the degrees of irrationality of all belief-systems that are available to the thinker at the time determined by how distant they are from the same probability function? A consideration of so-called “Moore-paradoxical” propositions reveals that the answer to this question is: No. The internal mental facts “given” to the thinker at the time determine an appropriate prior probability function; and the degree of irrationality of each of these belief-systems is determined by how distant it is from the result of conditionalizing this prior probability on the supposition that the thinker has that very belief-system. This appropriate prior probability can be conceived by imagining an “evaluating angel”. This angel knows all the internal mental facts about what is given to the thinker at the time, and relies solely on these facts to form a body of opinions about what the world is like; the appropriate prior probability function may be conceived as this angel’s body of opinions about the world.
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