
Contents
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
5.1 Introduction 5.1 Introduction
-
5.2 Availability 5.2 Availability
-
5.3 Hindsight bias 5.3 Hindsight bias
-
5.4 Black Swans 5.4 Black Swans
-
5.5 The conjunction fallacy 5.5 The conjunction fallacy
-
5.6 Confirmation bias 5.6 Confirmation bias
-
5.7 Anchoring, adjustment, and contamination 5.7 Anchoring, adjustment, and contamination
-
5.8 The affect heuristic 5.8 The affect heuristic
-
5.9 Scope neglect 5.9 Scope neglect
-
5.10 Calibration and overconfidence 5.10 Calibration and overconfidence
-
5.11 Bystander apathy 5.11 Bystander apathy
-
5.12 A final caution 5.12 A final caution
-
5.13 Conclusion 5.13 Conclusion
-
Acknowledgement Acknowledgement
-
Suggestions for further reading Suggestions for further reading
-
References References
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
915 Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgement of global risks
Get access-
Published:July 2008
Cite
Abstract
All else being equal, not many people would prefer to destroy the world. Even faceless corporations, meddling governments, reckless scientists, and other agents of doom, require a world in which to achieve their goals of profit, order, tenure, or other villainies. If our extinction proceeds slowly enough to allow a moment of horrified realization, the doers of the deed will likely be quite taken aback on realizing that they have actually destroyed the world. Therefore I suggest that if the Earth is destroyed, it will probably be by mistake. The systematic experimental study of reproducible errors of human reasoning, and what these errors reveal about underlying mental processes, is known as the heuristics and biases programme in cognitive psychology. This programme has made discoveries highly relevant to assessors of global catastrophic risks. Suppose you are worried about the risk of Substance P, an explosive of planet-wrecking potency which will detonate if exposed to a strong radio signal. Luckily there is a famous expert who discovered Substance P, spent the last thirty years working with it, and knows it better than anyone else in the world. You call up the expert and ask how strong the radio signal has to be. The expert replies that the critical threshold is probably around 4000 terawatts. ‘Probably?’ you query. ‘Can you give me a 98% confidence interval?’ ‘Sure’, replies the expert. ‘I’m 99%confident that the critical threshold is above 500 terawatts, and 99%confident that the threshold is below 80,000 terawatts.’ ‘What about 10 terawatts?’ you ask. ‘Impossible’, replies the expert. The above methodology for expert elicitation looks perfectly reasonable, the sort of thing any competent practitioner might do when faced with such a problem. Indeed, this methodology was used in the Reactor Safety Study (Rasmussen, 1975), now widely regarded as the first major attempt at probabilistic risk assessment. But the student of heuristics and biases will recognize at least two major mistakes in the method – not logical flaws, but conditions extremely susceptible to human error. I shall return to this example in the discussion of anchoring and adjustments biases (Section 5.7).
Sign in
Personal account
- Sign in with email/username & password
- Get email alerts
- Save searches
- Purchase content
- Activate your purchase/trial code
- Add your ORCID iD
Purchase
Our books are available by subscription or purchase to libraries and institutions.
Purchasing informationMonth: | Total Views: |
---|---|
October 2022 | 10 |
November 2022 | 5 |
December 2022 | 1 |
January 2023 | 3 |
February 2023 | 1 |
March 2023 | 2 |
April 2023 | 3 |
May 2023 | 8 |
June 2023 | 4 |
July 2023 | 1 |
August 2023 | 3 |
September 2023 | 5 |
October 2023 | 3 |
November 2023 | 3 |
December 2023 | 1 |
February 2024 | 2 |
March 2024 | 6 |
April 2024 | 11 |
May 2024 | 1 |
June 2024 | 1 |
August 2024 | 2 |
September 2024 | 8 |
October 2024 | 6 |
November 2024 | 1 |
December 2024 | 11 |
January 2025 | 2 |
March 2025 | 1 |
April 2025 | 1 |
Get help with access
Institutional access
Access to content on Oxford Academic is often provided through institutional subscriptions and purchases. If you are a member of an institution with an active account, you may be able to access content in one of the following ways:
IP based access
Typically, access is provided across an institutional network to a range of IP addresses. This authentication occurs automatically, and it is not possible to sign out of an IP authenticated account.
Sign in through your institution
Choose this option to get remote access when outside your institution. Shibboleth/Open Athens technology is used to provide single sign-on between your institution’s website and Oxford Academic.
If your institution is not listed or you cannot sign in to your institution’s website, please contact your librarian or administrator.
Sign in with a library card
Enter your library card number to sign in. If you cannot sign in, please contact your librarian.
Society Members
Society member access to a journal is achieved in one of the following ways:
Sign in through society site
Many societies offer single sign-on between the society website and Oxford Academic. If you see ‘Sign in through society site’ in the sign in pane within a journal:
If you do not have a society account or have forgotten your username or password, please contact your society.
Sign in using a personal account
Some societies use Oxford Academic personal accounts to provide access to their members. See below.
Personal account
A personal account can be used to get email alerts, save searches, purchase content, and activate subscriptions.
Some societies use Oxford Academic personal accounts to provide access to their members.
Viewing your signed in accounts
Click the account icon in the top right to:
Signed in but can't access content
Oxford Academic is home to a wide variety of products. The institutional subscription may not cover the content that you are trying to access. If you believe you should have access to that content, please contact your librarian.
Institutional account management
For librarians and administrators, your personal account also provides access to institutional account management. Here you will find options to view and activate subscriptions, manage institutional settings and access options, access usage statistics, and more.