
Contents
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Basic Assumptions Basic Assumptions
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Testing the First Assumption: Ideological Versus Nonideological Cases Testing the First Assumption: Ideological Versus Nonideological Cases
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Justices' Values and Ideological Cases Justices' Values and Ideological Cases
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Ideological Cases and Automatic Responses Ideological Cases and Automatic Responses
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Attitudinal and Legal Models of Judicial Decision Making Attitudinal and Legal Models of Judicial Decision Making
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Predictions Predictions
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Empirical Tests of the Predictions Empirical Tests of the Predictions
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Testing the Accuracy of the “More Questions to the Loser” Rule Testing the Accuracy of the “More Questions to the Loser” Rule
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Agreement with the Office of the Solicitor General Agreement with the Office of the Solicitor General
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Do Ideological Cases More Often Lead to Nonunanimous Decisions by the Court? Do Ideological Cases More Often Lead to Nonunanimous Decisions by the Court?
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How Long Does the Court Take to Reach a Decision? How Long Does the Court Take to Reach a Decision?
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Reanalyzing Data from the Supreme Court Forecasting Project Reanalyzing Data from the Supreme Court Forecasting Project
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Interim Summary Interim Summary
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Testing the Second Assumption Testing the Second Assumption
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Justices Who Were Effective Persuaders Justices Who Were Effective Persuaders
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Justices as Recipients of Persuasion Justices as Recipients of Persuasion
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Responses to Pressures Toward Uniformity Responses to Pressures Toward Uniformity
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Individual Differences Variables and Personality Variables Individual Differences Variables and Personality Variables
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Conclusion Conclusion
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4 4 Persuasion in the Decision Making of U.S. Supreme Court Justices
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Published:January 2010
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Abstract
This chapter proposes that persuasion is more effective in influencing votes in certain types of cases than others. A distinction is made between ideological (i.e., hot-button issue) cases and non-ideological cases. Using data from several recent Supreme Court terms, the chapter shows that latency of the decision, frequency of unanimous votes, and behavior in oral arguments are affected by type of case. In oral arguments, justices' eventual votes can be predicted from the nature and frequency of their questions, to a greater degree in ideological cases than in non-ideological cases. Thus it is concluded that both the legal model and the attitudinal model of judicial decision making are applicable, depending on the type of case.
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