
Contents
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Deja Vu All Over Again Deja Vu All Over Again
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Two Similar Cases—Would They Have Similar Outcomes? Two Similar Cases—Would They Have Similar Outcomes?
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The Temptation to Predict Outcomes The Temptation to Predict Outcomes
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The Outcome in Lawrence v. Texas: How Much a Prototype? The Outcome in Lawrence v. Texas: How Much a Prototype?
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The Role of Prediction in Understanding Outcomes The Role of Prediction in Understanding Outcomes
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Difficulties in Prediction Difficulties in Prediction
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The Line-Item Veto Case: Soliciting Predictions from Experts The Line-Item Veto Case: Soliciting Predictions from Experts
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The Experts’ Expectations and the Outcomes in the Line-Item Veto Case The Experts’ Expectations and the Outcomes in the Line-Item Veto Case
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If Justices Are Human, Aren’t They Somewhat Predictable? If Justices Are Human, Aren’t They Somewhat Predictable?
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An Analysis of Votes in the 2001–2002 Term An Analysis of Votes in the 2001–2002 Term
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Distinctions between Conservatives and Liberals Distinctions between Conservatives and Liberals
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Voting in Cases Dealing with Ideology-Driven Issues Voting in Cases Dealing with Ideology-Driven Issues
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Defendants’ Rights Defendants’ Rights
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Prisoners’ Rights Prisoners’ Rights
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Fourth Amendment Rights of Individuals Fourth Amendment Rights of Individuals
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Other Types of Cases Other Types of Cases
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Conclusions from Analysis of 2001–2002 Term Cases Conclusions from Analysis of 2001–2002 Term Cases
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Predicting Decisions for the 2002–2003 Term Predicting Decisions for the 2002–2003 Term
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The Sample of Cases The Sample of Cases
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The Trend to Reverse Rather Than Affirm The Trend to Reverse Rather Than Affirm
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Which Circuits Provide the Greatest Number of Certiorari Petitions? Which Circuits Provide the Greatest Number of Certiorari Petitions?
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Comparing Models for Accuracy in Predicting Outcomes Comparing Models for Accuracy in Predicting Outcomes
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Successes for the Statistical Model in Predicting Outcomes Successes for the Statistical Model in Predicting Outcomes
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The Experts’ Accuracy Rate in Predicting Outcomes in Different Types of Cases The Experts’ Accuracy Rate in Predicting Outcomes in Different Types of Cases
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Predicting Outcomes in Intellectual Property Cases Predicting Outcomes in Intellectual Property Cases
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Eldred v. Ashcroft: Is the Extension of the Copyright Retroactive? Eldred v. Ashcroft: Is the Extension of the Copyright Retroactive?
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Dastar v. Twentieth Century Fox: Using Material in the Public Domain without Permission Dastar v. Twentieth Century Fox: Using Material in the Public Domain without Permission
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Moseley v. V Secret Catalogue: When Is a Copyright “Diluted”? Moseley v. V Secret Catalogue: When Is a Copyright “Diluted”?
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Predicting Individual Votes for the 2002–2003 Term Predicting Individual Votes for the 2002–2003 Term
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Predictions of Individual Votes in Highly Publicized Cases Predictions of Individual Votes in Highly Publicized Cases
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Which Justice Is Most Predictable? Which Justice Is Most Predictable?
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Do Pressures toward Unanimity Occur? Do Pressures toward Unanimity Occur?
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A Replication of Sorts A Replication of Sorts
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Conclusions Conclusions
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10 Can the Court’s Decisions Be Predicted?
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Published:April 2006
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Abstract
This chapter explores the actual degree of predictability of outcomes of cases, as well as the votes of individual justices. It presents three hypotheses about the predictability of outcomes, and all are verified. Accuracy of predictions emerges much more strongly for cases involving ideology-driven issues; some justices (mostly the conservatives) are more predictable than others; and the statistical model fared fairly well in most types of cases, but the experts' predictions were not much higher than chance. However, no system of prediction is perfect. Of 72 cases in the 2002-2003 term, in seven (or almost 10 percent), the decision of the Court was contrary to the prediction from the statistical model and that of every expert used by the Washington University Forecasting Project.
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