
Contents
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1 Introduction 1 Introduction
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2 Data 2 Data
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3 An Overview of SSA Economies 3 An Overview of SSA Economies
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3.1 Income and Growth 3.1 Income and Growth
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3.2 The Structure of SSA Economies: the Supply Side 3.2 The Structure of SSA Economies: the Supply Side
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3.3 The Structure of SSA Economies: the Demand Side 3.3 The Structure of SSA Economies: the Demand Side
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3.4 Financial Sector Development 3.4 Financial Sector Development
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3.5 The Balance of Payments, Capital Account Openness, and External Shocks 3.5 The Balance of Payments, Capital Account Openness, and External Shocks
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4 Assessing the Stylized Facts of Economic Fluctuations: Methodological Issues 4 Assessing the Stylized Facts of Economic Fluctuations: Methodological Issues
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5 Business Cycle Dynamics 5 Business Cycle Dynamics
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5.1 Output Volatility 5.1 Output Volatility
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5.2 Volatility and Cyclicality of GDP Components 5.2 Volatility and Cyclicality of GDP Components
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5.3 Comovement Across GDP Components 5.3 Comovement Across GDP Components
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5.4 Inflation and its Relation with Output Fluctuations 5.4 Inflation and its Relation with Output Fluctuations
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5.5 Is Volatility Related to Growth and Inflation Performances? 5.5 Is Volatility Related to Growth and Inflation Performances?
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6 Discussion 6 Discussion
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6.1 Which Shocks are Likely to be the Main Drivers of Economic Fluctuations in SSA? 6.1 Which Shocks are Likely to be the Main Drivers of Economic Fluctuations in SSA?
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7 Conclusion 7 Conclusion
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Appendix 4A: Data Sources and Country Coverage Appendix 4A: Data Sources and Country Coverage
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References References
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4 Economic Fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa
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Published:March 2018
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Abstract
The chapter compares business cycle fluctuations in sub-Saharan African countries to the rest of the world. Its main results are: (i) African economies stand out by their macroeconomic volatility, which is reflected in the volatility of output and other macro variables; (ii) inflation and output tend to be negatively correlated in SSA countries; (iii) unlike advanced economies and emerging markets (EMs), trade balances and current accounts are acyclical in SSA; (iv) the volatility of consumption and investment relative to GDP is larger than in other countries; (v) the cyclicality of consumption and investment is smaller than in advanced economies and EMs; (vi) there is little comovement between consumption and investment; and (vii) consumption and investment are strongly positively correlated with imports. The chapter provides a tentative interpretation in terms of the main shocks hitting these economies and the nature of the mechanisms amplifying or dampening these shocks.
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